Tom Lee: 1 Hidden Sign a U.S. Market Crash is Coming

요약 보기

연준은 수요측 인플레는 잡았으나 에너지·물류발 공급측 인플레가 1.8%로 급등해 금리 인하가 막혔고, 고금리가 경기만 짓누르는 스태그플레이션 위험이 있다. S&P500은 상위 소수 종목(135개, 약 27%)이 지수를 끌고 있고 나머지 73%는 하락 중이며, 에너지 강세·소비/리츠/SaaS 약세로 AI 외 섹터는 부진하다. 또 AI 반도체 공급이 TSMC 대만 생산에 의존해 지정학 리스크가 크다. 미국 증시 급락 가능성을 경고하는 내용이다.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. Tom Lee went live on CNBC and he said that there is one risk that will happen in the stock market in the in the summer and that could crash the stock market. I analyzed this risk and what I found will shock you. But first, let's take a look at what he said. I do think three tests are emerging for the stock market.

02. You know, one is of course how is the Fed going to react to both the underlying inflation risks? How is the Fed going to react to inflation? We all know that Fed is planning to cut rates. But now they are trapped because look at this graph that's going to simplify what I'm talking about. All right, this chart shows inflation.

03. Well, the gray bar is the demand-driven inflation, which is the service and consumer spending. When consumers spend more, the gray bars should rise and when they spend less, that means it should go down. This is the inflation for consumers. And it seemed Look at that. It was at 2.5 and it is shrinking all the way now it reached 2%.

04. So, that means that the Fed's high rates is working. They are really crushing the US consumer. But look at the orange bars. Those bars. Here's the problem. This is the supply-driven inflation, which is energy and logistics. It It exploded from 0.6 all the way to 1.8%. It is completely wiping out the progress the Fed made on the demand side.

05. Here is the truth. Jerome Powell only has one weapon, which is interest rate. But do you know what a high rate doesn't do? It doesn't drill a single oil well. It doesn't secure shipping routes. The Fed cannot fix the orange bars on the chart. If they keep rates higher to fight energy inflation, they will break the US economy without lowering the cost of oil.

06. We are starting a kind of stagflation high borrowing cost crushing the consumer while supply constraints keep prices high. This is what is going on and this is why Tom Lee said that Fed is in trouble. There is another risk that is happening the stock market that the media is not talking about and that is the S&P 500.

07. The S&P 500 is no longer representing the US economy because only a few companies is dragging the S&P 500 while the rest of the companies are bleeding. Look at this chart. Well, this graph shows the S&P 500 and which companies that are up year-to-date and which companies that are down year-to-date. There are 135 companies that are carrying the market right now.

08. We all know that the S&P 500 is hitting all-time high after all-time high. There are only 135 companies that are green year-to-date which they represent only 27% of the S&P 500 while the rest which is the 73% they are red. They are down year-to-date. 365 companies are bleeding out. This This means that only few companies are dragging the S&P 500.

09. And those are the big companies like Nvidia, Apple, and so on. The Magnificent The Magnificent Seven basically. And just to give you a proof that we are struggling this chart shows year-to-date gains by sectors. First, we have here energy and energy that well, obviously energy is the highest gainer this year by 26% while energy are like oil companies like ExxonMobil, Chevron, and so on.

10. They are 26% and then we have the tech. Tech companies like Nvidia, Apple, Broadcom, AMD and those are the second gainers, which is 16.7% and then we have communication, that is Meta and Google, Netflix, and then we have the S&P 500, and then we have materials and so on. And now we can see the all the companies that are bleeding year-to-date, which is industrial and um also we have utilities.

11. Uh utilities is struggling like McDonald's and also we have food for example, um consumer sector or the street level consumer sector like McDonald's, Chipotle. And also we have apparel like Nike and um Lululemon and all the big other companies they are struggling as well and also real estate they are down 12%.

12. Well, real estate um like uh Prologis and American Tower and um the big real estate uh companies or REITs. And also we have SAS stocks, which is Adobe, Salesforce, and so on. All these companies are struggling and apparel they are down 28% year-to-date. That means that that the US economy is struggling.

13. When energy is up, that is not good for the economy. That means that we're heading towards inflation. The only companies that are thriving this year are AI companies which is AMD, Nvidia, and anything that is related to AI or chips and there are some of the tech companies like or Amazon, Google. Those are the companies that are thriving.

14. The rest they are struggling. The only sector that is thriving this year that is getting all the gains is AI. But there is one risk that the media is not talking about. All AI companies like Nvidia, AMD, Apple, all any company that uses chips, they don't manufacture their their own chips. They just design it and there there's only one company that manufactures all these chips and that is TSMC that is located in Taiwan.

15. If any geopolitical tension happens between China and Taiwan, that means all these tech companies and AI companies, they will struggle big time. Look at this draft. This shows TSMC's largest tech customers. And that represents uh the percentage of total revenue that TSMC makes from its customers. 25% of its revenue is coming from Apple, 11% of TSMC's revenue is coming from Nvidia and 7% from Qualcomm and 7% from AMD, Broadcom, Intel, and then 36% is from the other 500 companies.

16. That means the big two account for 36% of all TSMC's capacity, which is Apple and Nvidia. Well, after the recent clash between US and China and how China they said that they're going to close the Strait of Taiwan and they're going to make US struggle, US realized that they have to find a solution for this single point of failure.

17. So, they forced TSMC to build factories in the American soil. As of early 2026, TSMC is heavily investing in a massive gigafab in Phoenix, Arizona with a total investment of $165 billion. In fact, their first Arizona fab successfully started high-volume production recently and Apple actually struck a minor deal to start shifting some production to Intel just to reduce their single supplier exposure.

18. But here's the catch. While the Arizona plants are a step toward diversification, TSMC's strategy is to keep its absolute newest, most cutting-edge technology, like their upcoming 2 nanometer process, firmly in Taiwan. So, if you are investing heavily in the US tech and AI narrative, you are you have to acknowledge that the entire physical foundation of that narrative currently sits on an island in the Pacific Ocean.

19. In this episode, I analyzed what Tom Lee said about the risk that is going to happen in the upcoming months, which is the inflation and that Federal Reserve cannot do anything about it. And also, I talked about the S&P 500 and how it's not representing the US economy. And lastly, I talked about the risk that is hitting AI stocks.

20. I always like to dig deep with real data to help you make a real good decision. If you think you enjoyed this episode, please give this video a like and subscribe.