저자: Roadto1Million채널진행자 · 외국인
요약 보기
Ray Dalio와 Michael Burry의 'AI 버블' 경고는 반복적으로 빗나갔다고 주장. 닷컴버블과 달리 AI 기업은 GPU 등 실매출을 내므로 버블 정의에 부합하지 않음. Dalio는 2015·2018·2022년 경고 후에도 시장이 상승했고, Burry는 2019·2021·2023년 경고와 2023년 QQQ 풋 베팅이 모두 실패했다고 함. 두 사람이 공포를 이용해 유료 버블지수 구독을 판매한다고 비판. 저자는 2026년 시장 전망을 예고하며 자신의 영상을 홍보함.
다듬은 글
So the term AI bubble has become the easiest clickbait on the internet to grab people's attention using fear. But the data tells completely different story because in this episode I will expose to Ray Dalio and Michael Bur who have been using this word for a long time. If you think them using this word did not mislead people, you are wrong because they are accountable for the for misleading millions and millions and millions of people.
In this episode, I will explain that if you are a big fan of these two, I want you today and only today to keep your emotions away and listen to me. If you think you learned something new from my videos, please give this video a like and let's start. On November 20th, just last week, Ray Dalu made an interview with CNBC.
He started the interview state saying that there is definitely a bubble in the market and then he started def defining what a bubble is and the definition that he stated is vague. He mentioned that a bubble is wealth and then there is a buyer and there is a seller and blah blah blah. If you understood anything from the clip, please let me know.
There's uh definitely a bubble in uh the markets. Yeah. Um bubbles. What is a bubble? Right. What is a bubble? What what is a bubble? A bubble um is that there's a lot of creation of wealth from various ways such as you decide that you're going to have a uh sell $50 billion worth of stock and value it at uh trillion dollars or you have multiples like that and then you create the wealth that way.
And then the question with all this wealth relative to money is who needs the money. So it's all it's a matter of who the buyers and sellers are. First of all, let us define what a bubble is. A bubble happens when a price of an asset, it could be stock, NFT, crypto, rises far above the real fundamental value driven mostly by hype, speculations and emotions, not real profits or hardearned cash.
I always like to compare the dotcom bubble to the AI boom or bubble if you want to call it. Back in 1999, the dot companies were valued based on website visits, not high and website visits and hype, not real revenue. As soon as expectations go down, the bubble pops and people lose their money. That is not the case now because AI companies are generating tons of cash selling real products like GPUs to banks, hospitals, tech companies, and military and countries too.
[clears throat] We saw the crazy $1 trillion deal between Saudi Arabia and the US. So if you apply this against the definition of a bubble, it doesn't match. Let's go back to Ray Dal's interview. After grabbing people's attention, mentioning that we are in a bubble, adding fear to investors, he then said, "Don't sell.
If you truly believe that we are in a bubble, why don't you short the market or at least tell people to reduce exposure in the market, not hold, take a look at what he said? You can't look at don't sell just because there's a bubble." Okay? Okay? Don't sell just because of bubble. And then he goes and says that we are 80% close to a bubble burst.
This is a perfect escape statement. Meaning no matter what happens to the market, he can't be wrong. If the market crashes, he will be like, see, I told you we were close to to the crash. But if the market doesn't crash, he will be like, well, we are only 80% there. Take a look. There are a number of them um show that um we're on that on that chart.
If I was to show you the chart, it's about 80% of where it was um uh in those two times. That doesn't mean that that's the end of the move, okay? Because bubbles have to be pricricked, right? And and so you can measure that there's vulnerability, a lot of vulnerability. There's a lot of vulnerability of who's holding what.
And now let's talk about numbers and fact check Ray Dalio since 2015. In 2015, the market was rallying. Then Dalio jumped and made a comment and warned all investors that this rally looks like 1937 that will end up in a similar crash. Guess what? Nothing happened. Market kept rising all the way to till 2018.
If you followed what he said, you would have lost a lot of money. That is called opportunity cost. In 2018, the market was rallying and Dalio goes again and says that this mark the market will crash within the next two years and the dollar will collapse and we will enter a serious economic problem. Guess what?
Nothing happened to the market. Instead, the market kept ringing all the way to 2020 precoid crash. Let's say that you sold during that time and stayed out of the market for 2 years and avoided the cover crash. Do you know that investors who remained in the market from 2018 and throughout COVID crash ultimately generated higher returns than those who tried to time the bottom?
Staying invested consistently outperforms trying to predict the crash. Well, Ray Dalio himself said do not sell. Do you think Ray Dalio stopped? No. He continued again in 2022 and issued a warning that global debt is reaching the limit and crash is coming. Guess what? nothing happened and the market kept rallying post 2022 correction all the way till 2024.
Those who sold are kicking themselves. The other guy I don't agree with is Michael Bur. He he wrote a tweet on January 31st, 2023 saying sell. That tweet went viral. The market did what? Kept rallying all the way from 2023 until Trump imposed those tariffs in 2025. Imagine you listened to him and sold all your positions.
you would have lost all those gains from 2023 until today. Michael Bur every year comes up with a new bubble or a new way to scare investors. Don't get me wrong, if you see anything coming up that is worth mentioning or worth warning investors, that is fine. But if you keep saying that every year to grab people's attention and nothing happens, then I will blame you.
You know, you know the funny thing that many people still believe those guys. And now let's fact check Michael Bur. Look at this table. So in 2019, Michael Bur made a false claim. He warned that index fund are are a bubble like 2008 subprime. Nothing happened. There's no crash and the market kept rallying from 2018 to 2020.
And this is this another false claim. in 2021 he called and and I quote greatest speculative bubble of all time predicted the crash in all assets. Well, nothing happened. It was partially wrong because in 2022, yes, the market took a hit. Cryp crypto lost a lot of gains and also some tech stocks, but S&P 500 recovered and hit records high just shortly after.
In February 2023, he tweeted sell and the market dripped briefly, then surged 60 to 70%, he later said I was wrong. In 2023, in August, he filed $1.6 billion in in QQQ as a puts. He shorted the market basically betting on his cash and he lost his $1.6 billion because the market kept rallying and it did not fall.
So all these claims that he's saying is just like false claims. If you follow him probably you're going to lo lose a lot of opportunity call and also if you shorted the market and listen to him you would have lost all the money and he closed his hedge fund and guess what the worst thing that he did is not only these not all these false claims.
He also now he made he's he's trying to make a lot of money from the the the AI bubble. he made a subscription that if you enter his his uh there's a there's a bubble index that he created that if you want to track this bubble you you have you pay a subscription and you track this bubble. So basically he's trying to make a lot of money out of this out of people's fear.
This is a terrible idea. Just give just say what is what you think is right about the market and what is wrong. Don't try to scare people and get money out of them. So all these claims that I shared, they are false claims. They are not backed by data. If you want to know my prediction for the stock market in 2026 based on real data and why I think it will be a green year next year, watch this
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