저자: Corey · 외국인
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S&P500·나스닥 주간/월간/분기 차트 기술적 분석. 2022 약세장 추세선 돌파 시도 중이며 주간 저항(SPX 4155, SPY 414) 돌파 여부가 관건. 돌파 시 8월 고점(4200~4300대), 실패 시 4000 부근 되돌림 예상. 박스권(캥거루장) 가능성도 언급. 나스닥100은 12590 돌파로 상승 추세, 13602·14349 목표. 저항 부근에서 익절·리스크 축소 권고. 영상 중 은퇴 발표는 만우절 농담이었음.
다듬은 글
what's up everybody Welcome to the stocks Channel my name is Corey and today we're going to look at macro technical analysis and we'll be looking at weekly monthly and quarterly charts of the indices so first up let's take a look at a weekly chart of the SPX S P 500 Index irst up just a quick announcement I want to thank all of you for this incredible journey I've had a blast doing these videos but I am going to be hanging up my hat and retiring from YouTube I hope you all enjoyed this journey as much as I did and I hope you got a lot of useful information from my analysis and my updates and of course none of that is true because it's April Fool's Day all right so today we'll be looking at the weekly charts monthly charts and quarterly charts and this is going to be all based on what we see on the charts with absolutely no bias and I'm going to give you very compelling reasons why you should be bullish and I'm also going to show you some reasons why the Bears still have a reason to be bearish because there are something things on the chart we still need to be aware of so the first thing on the weekly chart of SPX is we are clearly breaking out of the downtrend of the 2022 bear Market we simply need to get another close on the SPX weekly chart back over 41.55 and that is synonymous with the 414 level on the Spy ETF if we get that breakout that is another higher high so we will have the higher lows and the higher high and if you look at the weekly chart of the SPX this is also going to look like a double bottom breakout if we get a clear above that level so on the weekly chart we have the positively sloping 20 period moving average we have the very bullish weekly candle which is a bullish impulse we just simply need to now get the breakout of the higher high now if you're bearish that is a great risk level for shorting the market but if we break that level we're likely going all the way back up to the August highs which is going to be between the 42 to 4300s so you cannot stay bearish if we get the breakout but you can remain bearish if we fail to get the breakout and get rejected from this resistance we should be approaching early next week so yes the market is looking a lot better this year and we're getting more and more evidence that we could be entering a bull market but the Bulls do not have all of the evidence to just go into a Buy and Hold position and walk away from the market and assume it's going to go higher I still think this is a Trader's market and you're going to have a much better time if you manage your positions and you know when to scale in and scale out there is a very good chance if you just look at the bear Market of last year that we are going into a trading range which means we can really just ping pong and go absolutely nowhere into next year and we can build out a giant trading range just ping-ponging between support and resistance and go much of nowhere so for that reason while I could be wrong I think there's a good reason to be made that this is going to be the case which means this is going to remain a Trader's Market as a Trader I can utilize buying that support and selling at resistance or shorting at resistance and covering at support and I could actually return a profit in a trading range Market that is going nowhere if you're a Buy and Hold investor it's going to be very frustrating because your investments will make no money over the years but as a buy an old investor that's what you're signing up for and that's what you need to be aware of so in a Trader's Market just be aware of these very critical resistance and support levels and be aware of the current Trend the current trend is higher lows and higher highs and we just need confirmation of the breakout now at we did bounce off of the 50 retracement from the March 2020 lows to the all-time highs that we had in 2021 and that is typically all you're going to get in a bear Market if you are going back into a bull market so if we are still in a secular bull market this would have been the low and now we're going to Rally off of this low and likely never see that low again if we are not in a secular bull market the price will need to come down and break below 3 500 and then we are likely going to 3 200.
3200 would likely Mark the bottom and we would likely never go much slower than that even though there are people out there that think it's possible to go all the way back down to the March 2020 lows I personally do not think that is in the realm of possibility 3200 would be the absolute bottom if we broke down below 3 500.
now that is my opinion and it doesn't matter whether or not you agree with me because we can all agree if we break down below 3 500 that is bearish and we're going lower so in the short term you need to be aware of this being a bullish Trend and that is only going to be true while we are above this Rising 20 weekly moving average which is right around spy levels of 400 and SPX levels of 4 000.
Now quickly I want to switch this over to the monthly chart because if you are a bear this is a very good reason to still be bearish is that we are currently still below the negatively sloping monthly 20 period moving average which is going to be that resistance right around the same levels we just saw on the weekly chart which is right around 41.50 to 41.80 if the Bulls cannot break Above This level and we see a very sharp rejection in the month of April or the month of May this is going to look like a giant monthly Bear Flag which could easily take us down for that next leg lower to get the 3200 at a very minimum if we didn't go to 3200 we could at least double bottom off of 3500 and then balance from there so now zooming out on this monthly chart you can also see we are holding above a support trend line that goes all the way back to the 2009 lows and the March 2020 crash and that's about where we were bouncing in October of 2022.
it's not a perfect trend line and we did crash below it temporarily but that's why it's called a crash because you usually don't spend a lot of time below the support level and then finally I want to switch this over to the quarterly chart where every candle is an entire three months of price action and you can see that spy did have two consecutive quarters of positive price action and we did balance off of the 20 period moving average on the quarterly chart now typically if you go back through history if you get three red quarters in a row that tells you you're in a bear market and then once you get two green quarters in a row you are typically out of the bear Market whether or not that holds up true is to be determined but it's a great case to be made that the bottom could be in and we're either going back into a bull market or going to remain in a trading range so the most likely scenario looking at these charts is that we are either in a bull market or or a sideways going nowhere trading range Market which is going to be called The Kangaroo Market there is a very slim chance we are still in a bear market so do keep that in mind in order to get back into a bear Market we are going to need to break down through that critical support right there at 3500 and that is still a long ways away so be aware of resistance levels and then just get risk off as we approach resistance so going back to the weekly chart there is no reason to be bullish as we are approaching resistance at 41.55 my suggestion is to get risk off as we approach resistance and even possibly consider shorting the market if the conditions in your strategy tell you to but once we break resistance then you want to get more bullish because then we're likely going for that next leg higher which is going to be the August highs so be disciplined in this market and do not remain bullish as we approach critical resistance levels that is a very common mistake a lot of people made last year is they're expecting some very strong bull Trend to come out of this market and we're just getting that trading range which means you need to be disciplined you need to be selling at resistance and only buying at support if you're shorting the market you need to be managing your risk at resistance and shorting only at resistance levels and make sure you're covering that support so I don't care which direction you're trading I actually suggest you learn to trade in both directions but if you're only focused on one make sure you understand that very simple principle so as we approach critical resistance we need to wait and see if we're going to break above it and then if we do we're looking for the August highs and if we don't we're looking for a retracement back down to the breakout right around 4 000.
now jumping over to the weekly chart of the ndx this is going to be those big tech companies that are absolutely crushing it right now and you can see the big tech companies are already in a weekly did get a very bullish breakout the last couple of weeks because we did get that clear back over to a higher high above 12 590.
now there's a good chance from here the ndx wants to go a little bit higher to test the 50 retracement of last year's bear Market which is going to be another three percent higher to get us to thirteen thousand six oh two if we break that level that is a higher high from the bear Market of last year which tells us we are likely going to the next leg higher at 14 349.
there are weekly gaps on this chart as you can see which means we are likely at some point going up there to fill those gaps and it looks like the market wants to go do that now so there's a good chance we're going to get a bullish summer especially in the tech sector and the tech sector is the majority of the S P 500 which is likely going to push that higher as well however just like I said with the S P 500 there is no reason to get bullish once we get to resistance so you need to be considering scaling out of your long positions as we climb towards that critical resistance you can always get back in them if we break resistance but there's going to be a lot of Sellers and a lot of bears showing up at these critical levels now zooming out on the ndx you can see we are in a very powerful bull Trend because if you go from the 2009 lows all the way to the March 2020 lows and you draw a trend line that is exactly where we bounced off of last year in 2022 and then again in 2023 so that is what gave us this very bullish weekly double bottom that we are currently breaking out of and that's sending us to higher prices this is very simple to see that this was a giant double bottom off of the lows we broke out above the neckline retested the neckline as support hit the weekly 20 period moving average that is a positive slope and we had a very impulsive three-week bounce off of that level so that is objective analysis and following price and price is the most important thing you need to follow because when you're getting impulsive price action off a very critical support Zone that is telling you there is a ton of buyers in the market so this is the real deal buying and this is a real deal bull Trend as long as we're above 12 580 and that is exactly where I would set your risk at if you're going to remain long in this market knowing you should be locking in your profits as we approach this critical resistance above now let's jump over to the ndx monthly chart because the monthly chart also gives you reason to be concerned because price action is approaching this negatively sloping monthly 20 period moving average that is going to be the same exact resistance I just showed you on the weekly chart so be very cautious as we approach that level because if we get rejected from that level it could just be a bear Market relief rally and then we're going down for that next monthly leg lower to retest the lows or make brand new lows there is no reason to predict whether or not we are going to get rejected from resistance just follow the price action if you get in the habit of being objective and letting price do all the Talking you'll have no bias and you'll become a much better Trader if we look at the quarterly chart of the ndx you can see we only have one green quarter on the ndx because the higher rates did crush the tech sector and we are just now seeing the recovery from it but because the tech sector was so heavily crushed it could have the most to gain on the other end of this equation so this is a very impulsive three month candle closed at the high of the quarter and a very impulsive bounce right off of support and there's no way you can look at that and see anything other than a very objective Bounce from support that doesn't guarantee we're going to all-time highs and as I talked about before there is still a good chance we just get locked in a trading range going into the next year or two of trading this could be very frustrating so be aware of it as a possibility which means you should be focused on discipline trading and not focusing so much on investing investing could be part of your strategy but this is a channel surrounded about following price action and trading and that is why we are going to focus on trading so we looked at the SPX and the ndx and we looked at the weekly monthly and quarterly charts and they're all basically telling us the same exact thing which that we are currently in a strong bull Trend approaching very critical resistance I'm not making any predictions on whether or not that resistance breaks because we're going to let the price action do all of the talking so because we're only about three percent away from critical resistance it should not be long until we find out whether or not we are going to break above it and then we will assess the price action in The Market at that time and make a decision moving forward what's the best way to trade this Market that is exactly what we're doing each and every day o where we objectively follow price action each and every day for day trading and swing trading if you want to come be a part of that community Jay's
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