저자: Paul · 외국인
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Micron은 2000년 고점 이후 주가가 장기간 정체됐지만 매출은 크게 성장함. 8개 기준 분석에서 PE 14.7, ROIC 7.2%, 잉여현금흐름 감소 등 혼재. 스톡 애널라이저 DCF 적정가 범위는 38~140달러로 넓고 현재가 95달러. 과매수 상태에서 거래량이 평균 이하라 신고가 돌파 가능성은 낮다고 평가하며, 단기 하락 전환 신호를 언급함.
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check please hey welcome back to everything money today we're going to talk about micron this has been an old sort of famous company had a big fall from grace after 2000s we'll show you the financials behind where the stock price is today we'll show you what you should be paying for micron moving forward using our stock analyzer tool and if you want to trade this company in a quicker pace mo will show us the daily charts and the weekly charts this stock is held by a lot of famous investors we'll talk about it i bring your questions about micron to paul and mo they own and operate they have 100 million dollar portfolios and they'll guide us down the path of investing our wealth let's get after paul what do you think micron baby thank you seth first off guys follow our also follow seth moe and i personally it really feeds our ego we love it very much so guys micron technology let's go to everything money i believe our interview with monish pabrai he likes micron right oh yeah big time yeah one of us yeah one of his very few holdings is micron so this is our eight pillars tools more on that later uh micron technology mu um okay so let's look at the next chart for micro oh my god look at this sethi what do we have here we forgot about this one this is this what do we have here let's go the intel the all of them i think it's just now beating finally its all-time high in 2000.
guys look at this date 2 000. all the hypesters out there would have said well yeah look at this but then it fell but then look at this it came back and they would have said buy this thing it's going to the future now the stock is about where it was 22 years ago 22 years ago last year they did 29 billion in revenue 22 years ago they did 3.37 billion dollars in revenue so nine times larger if i told you at this point the revenue would be nine times larger 22 years from now would you thought the stock would be exactly the same of course not but why did that happen because you can overpay for growth you can overpay for the stuff that's exactly the point what we're trying to teach here is you can overpay for things and you can underpay for things the market is not completely rational efficient market theory does not work this is irrational and it played out it got as low as jesus christ how low was that four or five bucks a share from 95.
so anyways monis probably added another two percent of micron paul it uh it's 58 percent of his portfolio a million and a half shares guy spear has a lot of it separately eight percent of his portfolio seth clarkman and then a guy named david tepe carmen did seth seth clarkman has seven million shares oh wow i like seth clarkman he likes intel a lot too um did you say um david pepper uh i did david tepper actually reduced he reduced his position by half he owns the carolina panthers is that what he owns wow i think and then someone named lee lee and ansel maverick capital bought up bought up 200 of this uh increased their position by 200 so a lot of top investors out there really like micron show us why okay so uh let's do our eight pillar analysis this is what we use to screen stocks first pillar we want the five-year pe under 22.5 14.7 okay now i started to see why they really like it i bought the dribble pillow number two we want the 's 7.2 so that's an x not that great which i'm kind of surprised about with the technology business but i'm not afraid of it yet um look at this adorable little dividend point one percent pays out 100 million great five-year average free cash flow 3.73 last year 3.9 so very consistent free cash flow click the income statement on our software five years ago they did 20 3.1 billion last year 29.6 so there has been profit growth of the last five years so we scroll down a little bit 7.59 to 7.36 it's actually an x there that's interesting guys very inconsistent profit here what is going on here they probably sold something here i imagine they sold something here to get 14.75 did they maybe i'm wrong that's weird oh wealth pill number five guys we want shares outstanding staying the same or going down and here's why if a company has 10 shares outstanding you own one you own ten percent of the business if they buy back two shares you still own your one share but now it's out of eight shares you now own twelve and a half percent of the business your ownership has gone up just by you being a good shareholder the company's rewarding you with their cash flow by buying back shares so we scroll all the way to the bottom of the income statement we go to the end of year six 1.04 billion shares to 1.12 that's an x so shares have gone up very very little but they have gone up nonetheless it's still an x pillar number five has to do with debt guys debt in a company is just like debt to you in real life in your personal life the more debt a company has when there are hard times it's gonna be detrimental to them okay we haven't had hard times in a while we take that number we multiply it by five that gives us 15 18.5 billion dollars in long-term liabilities right so we want their long-term liabilities to be less than 18.5 billion so we go to the balance sheet we scroll all the way to the bottom and we have 8.83 billion dollars in debt less than half of what we're looking at they can pay off all their long-term liabilities in under three years so that's pretty awesome pillars number seven and they have to do with free cash flow so we go to the cash flow statement seth explain free cash flow to our wonderful users yeah so this is cash from operations minus capital expenditures and these expenditures can be pay down debt pay a dividend reinvest themselves buy back shares make acquisitions all they can do with cash flow paul you see how fast they rattle that off i'm an expert now so to make it easy for you guys we added this line for free cash flow this does not exist in any other financial statement we did it for our users five years ago they did 5.23 last year 3.88 that's an x so they have decreasing free cash flow so it's funny everybody value investors have the same thought process but different results i'm looking at this going eh i'm done but monash and all these other guys have found it saying no there's something here i look at it from a business perspective and i look at it going i don't know if i'd want to own this business it doesn't seem cheap enough but i don't know maybe i'm wrong so our final metric is we take the five year average free cash flow we multiply it by 20 to get a market cap of some sort overrun by the company so 3.73 times 20 is 74 billion dollars what's the actual market capital stuff oh boy i always forget to do this now we went under 74 bills 106.
106. so it seems high does that mean we shouldn't buy it no because remember growth rates matter if a company is going to grow 100 a year versus another one for zero percent a year which would you rather which one you pay more money for you pay for 100 a year everything else is equal right so we created the stock analyzer tool because and we don't know the future these companies you have to make assumptions and guess what's going to happen the stock analyzer tool allows you to input those assumptions and it'll spit out exactly what you should pay based on those assumptions so first things first i put 10-year analysis you can do 1-20 now revenue growth numbers oh boy mo i'm gonna need your help here oh boy yeah exactly there's a lot of you know wanna go six eight ten let's do it i love it profit margin uh probably around that 22 percent 20 how about 20 20 and a half 20.5 21 and a half and 22.5 good although it's been higher the last five years though let's do this i'm actually gonna go 20.5 22 and 24.
okay free cash flow is drastically different why is that so that's something that's immediately a red flag to me why is the free cash flow margin so much different than the profit margin you have to understand that before you do that before you go into the company so um free cash flow margins mo what do you think 9 10 11.
is that too low on the low side um yeah probably let's go 10 11 12. p.e um 14 16 18. if it's okay with you how about 13 15 17. that's good and same thing with price of free cash flow and then i'm going to do 12.5 return because guys that's good you can get an etf for nine or ten percent return so if you're gonna buy an individual stock make it worth your while have your margin safety get your 12.5 return we hit the analyze button all right this is all over the board what do you think we have a low of 38 and a high of 140.
so to me this is a too hard pile yeah but the great value investors seth clarkman monash probably uh guy spear they've seen something that i immediately just go i'm out yeah but they know something that i don't they'll see something that i don't see and i'm okay with that i'm not gonna go ride their coattails because i don't get this so i'm not gonna buy because i see these value ranges so wide and the stock at 95.
now i will say if the stock fell in half today i'd be like well wait a second yeah and don't forget they've i mean i i think monish has held this for quite some time has he yeah it's not like he just took a massive position in this so okay he's there was a time that maybe it was better maybe he didn't see that maybe it didn't look like this previously if this resonates with you and you're looking to get these this data we provide it for you in our software you can have it on your phone right now you can look up micron and other companies paul tell them how so guys we created a software because our users were sitting there saying how do we analyze stocks without waiting for you to make a video there are 10 000 stocks out there they wanted to analyze themselves so we made our software we spent hundreds of thousands of dollars you get all this you get everything you've seen so far the eight pillars tool retirement calculator stock analyzer eight pillar portfolio exclusive video content every single day we post one to three videos made by us only for our users you get all this you get everything on the phone app like seth said but most importantly if you feel alone you get the community of over 6 000 people who use the software every single day to talk about your investment ideas because you might be the only one of your friends who believes these thoughts you can't talk to them you go into the chat right here in the top right corner or on your mobile phone and talk every day about every investment idea you have this is all for only one dollar per day whatever price you pay you are locked in forever one dollar per day gets you everything here 30 years of financial data this is a no-brainer guys our competitors are 199 to 500 a month one dollar per day gets you the software go sign up now s sign up one dollar per day and if you're looking to trade micron at a quicker pace you can join mo and all of his tutelage in the bitness nation and he'll show you how to trade this which he's showing paul and i which is getting lovely it's getting spicy mo show us about micro oh it's overbought i can see it from here yeah it's overbought and these are all-time highs right here so we are right back to those all-time highs so what do you do here with with it being overbought like this with it approaching all these all-time highs there is probably not a vol a lot of volume that's happening right here we'll switch over to the daily chart just to make sure but if you want to do something you need to break out with volume two new all-time highs and tr to try to run this thing this thing could absolutely turn into a power stock where you get to this overbought area and you just go sideways for months and months while your stock price just keeps climbing and climbing that's very real possibility but you need volume for that to happen let's see is there volume volume is completely i mean look at this that yellow line down there that's average volume and if you look back dating back to november there are not a lot of days in there with the exception of some blips here and there you are not touching average volume so i would not bet on this thing to break out to new all-time highs plus it looks like you're starting to get a rollover on the daily stochastic this is this to me is something you need to be very patient with and look for uh this thing to turn into a short position now this is also a good stock to day trade because you do get that volatility yesterday had you been paying attention to this you bounce over 80 you get an engulfing candle stick this probably would have been it right here and you get a move to the top side with increasing volume through the end of the day sell at the end of the day and today you're starting to get into that shorting position where you're getting good selling volume some movement down wait for an engulfing candlestick and get into it i like tech stocks that are more volatile just because you can capitalize on these situations from a day trading perspective on a 15-minute chart so if you like this and you want to join me and learn these rules come and join me get the trading 101 series which is all of the rules that you need to be successful from any charting perspective the employee trader series which is six stocks that you go through on a daily basis with me i update you if you're a working person i do the legwork for you and trade for you you get my exclusive monthly seminars one saturday per month open q a session and a chat community of a thousand plus people come and join me that is our take on micron uh i agree with you paul i've had very little guidance in terms of buying stocks through my 20s and mid 30s luckily i found you and so you're sort of my teacher as you at home but you're right if if it gets too difficult i i definitely don't have any inside information is it does not affect me that three people that i very much respect like micron i just don't get it i'm not gonna buy it and these are three people that i think are brilliant and better investors than me and i just don't get it so i don't buy it and i literally don't go damn what am i missing okay they see something better than i do i have fomo when i see i know everybody has foam oh that's that's what makes me a great investor i don't have fomo that's our take fondle thumbs up brother's laughing and i'm being sad you'll love it see you next video you
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