저자: SolvingTheMoneyProblem진행자—게스트CathieWood클립리액션 · 외국인
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결론: 유전체(게놈) 기술이 향후 10~20년 의료 혁명을 이끌 것이며, 발언자는 ARK Genomics 펀드(ARKG)에 자산의 약 2%를 투자했고 그 성장률이 5년간 테슬라를 넘을 가능성이 높다고 본다. [Cathie Wood 인터뷰 클립 요지] DNA 시퀀싱, AI, 유전자 치료(특히 CRISPR 유전자 편집)의 결합이 질병을 치료할 것이며, 가장 큰 상승 서프라이즈는 테슬라보다 유전체 분야에서 나올 것이라는 주장. CRISPR로 베타지중해빈혈, 겸상적혈구병을 치료하는 사례가 나오고 있으며, 당뇨에도 적용 가능성이 있다고 봄. [기술·비용 근거] DNA 시퀀싱 비용은 1,000달러 이하로 내려왔고, 작년 전 세계 전장 유전체 시퀀싱 건수는 240만 건으로 역사적 누적의 절반에 해당. 향후 5년간 약 40배 증가(연간 약 1억 건 규모로 언급)를 예상. [임상 사례] 뉴잉글랜드 저널 오브 메디신에 보고된 백혈병 환자가 CRISPR 편집 후 19개월간 재발 없이 관해 상태라는 사례 언급. [기업가치 관련 주장] CRISPR Cas9 핵심 특허 3개 보유 기업들이 1990년대 말 기준이면 시가총액 2,000~3,000억 달러 수준이 가능했을 것이며, 단일유전자 질환 치료제 로열티 기반 매출이 연 750억 달러 규모로 추정된다고 주장. 현재 세 종목 합산 시가총액은 50억 달러에도 못 미친다고 언급. [투자 포지션] ARKG 주식 보유 및 옵션 포지션 병행 (옵션 세부 내용은 공개 안 함). 유전체 분야 전체 자산 대비 약 2% 투자, 개별 종목 선정은 하지 않고 ARK에 위임. 향후 5년간 ARKG 연환산 수익률이 테슬라를 상회할 가능성이 '이븐 이상'이라 주장, 2030년대에는 유전체 기업 시가총액이 수조 달러에 이를 것이라 전망. 장시간 시장 마감 후 영상을 올려 시청자가 즉시 추종 매매하지 않도록 했다고 밝힘. [리스크] 발언자 본인도 타이밍이 틀릴 수 있다고 언급, 고위험·고수익 베팅이라고 명시. [기타 종목 언급] 테슬라(장기 보유 중이며 상승 가능성 있으나 유전체 대비 열위로 언급), 개별 유전체 기업은 특정하지 않음.
다듬은 글
our geneticists and you're going to have one so am i are going to be able to identify for the first time the needle in the haystack they're going to be able to identify which genes in our genomes have mutated in other words they've developed a programming error and now with crispr gene editing following it up we're going to be able to correct those programming errors it's going to be incredible to to catch cancer in in stage one and then edit it away we think that's going to be possible in the next five to ten years uh and probably sooner than that so that's real impact don't know if i've told you guys but i'm planning on living long enough to live forever now i know a few of you right now are thinking holy crap this dude is absolutely insane what a weirdo well both of those are true but have nothing to do with the statement i've just made i genuinely believe this is a realistic possibility for someone of my age who isn't doing everything you possibly can to destroy his health there's a reason i'm not a fat piece of [ __ ] this is a conscious decision i've been very actively focused on eating good things and doing what i need to to make sure that i live an optimum healthy lifestyle to the best of my knowledge and ability based on the available information of the time so i can get as far into the future as i possibly can there will come a point at some point in the future at least theoretically longevity escape velocity where medicine technology is actually adding more than one year of human lifespan to the human life every year the next two decades will usher in an absolute revolution a complete transformation of healthcare disease and aging at the hands of the genomic revolution i'm super excited about this on a personal level the amount of good positive impact in the world will just be phenomenal from this technology but from an investment point of view i also see enormous potential so in this video i'm going to react to some clips of kathy wood sharing some of her insights and thoughts around genomics and i'll also share some details about an investment i've made in the genomic space in the stock market so i'm going to play a couple of clips from recent kathy wood interviews one just a week or so ago and one in 2019 just over one year ago after that i'll share some details about the stock investment i've made in the genomic space if i look backward as you well know tesla accounts for almost a fifth of the return that you have generated in that five-year time span which of your current holdings kathy do you think will supply the biggest lift in the next five years tesla's still in the running but i would have to say the biggest upside surprises are going to come from the genomic space and that's because the convergence of dna sequencing uh artificial intelligence and gene therapies importantly crispr gene editing are going to cure disease that convergence is going to cure disease now we have real science and technology surfacing the mutations in our genomic profile and um and as they surface those mutations what do we see we see the earliest manifestations of disease and now with the combination of artificial intelligence and gene editing we're able to both anticipate diseases and cure them potentially beta thalassemia we're seeing it sickle cell disease we even think it will work in uh diabetes which is where most the if you look at the largest category of spending uh year to year in health care it's diabetes i wholeheartedly agree with kathy here a little bit of homework for you guys and girls watching who are a little bit unsure about this whole genomics thing please get at least an overall understanding of these three core technologies that are currently converging that i and kathy and many others believe are going to be the catalyst for an absolute revolution in health care human longevity and well-being dna sequencing artificial intelligence and gene therapy that's your homework if you really want to get an understanding on the opportunity and the technology that's driving this forward what we are looking for in terms of impact is figuring out have costs associated with one of these platforms drop to a low enough uh level that uh they're going to unleash waves of demand and get us into that exponential growth curve so whether it dna sequencing we're there uh to give you an example uh dna sequencing costs now are below a thousand dollars last year uh the number of whole human genomes sequenced around the world was 2.4 million that was half of all the whole human genomes ever sequenced in history so we're already at the tipping point and uh we believe that number is going to go to a hundred so that's almost a forty-fold increase in the next five years uh so that is truly exponential growth being an enormous science nerd i became fascinated with the human genome probably two decades ago i read genome by matt ridley and absolutely had my mind blown and since then i've been astonished at the declining cost to actually sequence a human genome in fact i had my own dna genotype which is not the same thing as fully sequencing a human genome i won't boy with the details on that jump online and google the difference if you're interested years ago about 2013 or so let me show you some of the useful information that i discovered about myself by the way you can't get this information via 23andme anymore the fda got butthurt they're not allowed to provide this but i had this done early enough that i was able to access information download and archive this so lucky me anyway i discovered that i have an increased sensitivity to pain and i can confirm this quick story once i shattered a number of bones in my foot and guess what happened i passed out from the pain and woke up in even more pain after hitting my head on the way down as well double whammy and it is going to change health care decision making it's bringing real science into healthcare decision making for the first time uh so our geneticists and you're going to have one so am i are going to be able to identify for the first time the needle in the haystack they're going to be able to identify which genes in our genomes have mutated in other words they've developed a programming error and now with crispr gene editing following it up we're going to be able to correct those programming errors it's going to be incredible to to catch cancer in in stage one and then edit it away we think that's going to be possible in the next five to 10 years and probably sooner than that so that's real impact so we're almost creating these superhumans uh well longevity yes human lives will be extended but the quality of human life is going to improve dramatically if we're able to move away from treating cancer as a chronic condition and that's where we've been going recently but to actually correct the whatever the mutation that has taken place very early on that's going to be huge in fact last week there was a journal of new england the new england journal of medicine published a report on a man with leukemia whose leukemia after crispr gene editing uh has disappeared and 19 months later it still has not returned so that that that was you know that's a pretty complicated cancer and uh we've gotten some of the heavyweights in the gene editing community to say wow so we may be closer to this than um many people believe i mean did you guys hear that we really are at the cusp of an enormous disruptive transformation in healthcare and longevity if i had told you or any investor in the late 90s that there were going to be three companies with the foundational patents behind crispr cas9 which is the most advanced gene editing flavor i'll say these days and i had told you these companies are going to cure diseases that have been the scourge of human existence right they're going to cure they're going to be able to cure pediatric blindness or cancer as i mentioned before my guess in the late 90s when investors were chasing dreams and too much capital chased too few opportunities too soon that those three companies the cumul would have accumulated in market cap to roughly 200 to 300 billion dollars in market cap right they would have because uh they'd get a royalty on every therapeutic uh that was going to be developed and today we think the recurring revenue base in terms of the therapies just for single gene caused diseases we think that's a recurring revenue base of 75 billion they'd get 10 percent of that single genes are responsible for only 2 percent of all diseases that's just the beginning so the idea of two hundred to three hundred billion dollars certainly in the bubble easy easy uh today those three stocks in the market together can't even reach five billion dollars in market cap now think about it apple is a trillion dollar market cap company and it's changed our lives and we love our apple phones and air pods and watches but the apple is not curing cancer it's not curing disease these companies we believe will but there's so much fear in the marketplace and there are all kinds of reasons to avoid them uh the cap is too small or which is the kind of circular reasoning the cap is too small or they've just entered human trials i'll wait to see what happens well that'll be too late if these human trials are successful one of the first one being pediatric blindness a baby born blind you correct that programming error the baby can see it works in mice it works in non-human primates if it works in human beings think about how how what the reaction will be well we'd prefer to be in the stocks before that reaction what a perfect segue into why i have now invested in the arc genomics fund i began my position on the 9th of november 2020 so call it almost two months ago i've since finished accumulating that's a combination of being long arc g the arc genomics etf so i have some money in that stock that etf i also have some options in play as well which i'm not investing okay the investment is in the arc genomics fund however i'm also making a bet i'm in the casino and i have some options as well on the arc genomics fund this is high risk potentially high reward and the reason that i've established this position as cathy was alluding to this transformation is happening the markets have yet to fully recognize the value of this opportunity and i personally have done my homework i haven't been able to find a particular company that stands out that really makes me want to invest in that specific company i have trust in kathy and her team to competently manage my money so to speak in the genomic space and capture reasonable amounts of that growth in the value without me personally having to pick a specific winner now over time i'm going to continue to look into this and learn at this point in time no opportunity has stood out to me enough for me to say all right i'm happy and confident enough to put money into this specific company hence i'm taking the lazy slash easy path for now and putting the money in the hands of arc that's definitely better than leaving it sitting in a bank account wasting away so my total investment in the genomic space as a percent of my net assets which is including my stocks and also my real estate equity is around two percent of my net assets in total so i'm not exactly betting the farm on this one another way to look at that it's probably around one to two months of my income i'd like to leave you guys with a little bit of food for thought and a prediction i love to be accountable now i don't have an extreme level of certainty on this but i feel pretty confident that there's a better than even chance that the growth on the arc genomics fund over the next five years the annualized rate of growth will exceed that of tesla stock now i could be wrong i'd love to be wrong i own plenty of tesla but i'm pretty confident in this call because the way the arc manage their capital they're fully invested at all times they're likely to capture huge amounts of this upside growth potential and i believe that the market capitalizations of the largest genomic companies in the next five years or so will reach trillions of dollars now of course i could be wrong but guess what even if i am wrong it's not going to be a matter of being wrong about the outcome just the timing i can all but guarantee you guys that by the 2030s there's going to be trillions and trillions and trillions of dollars of market capitalization created in the genomic space on the back of dna sequencing artificial intelligence and gene therapies let me know in the comments below if you're interested in genomics if you're excited about genomics and of course if you've invested in any genomic stocks and just finally i posted this video intentionally outside of market hours in fact there's three days of market close through the christmas break and then the weekend because i don't want anybody to go out and buy this stock or buy this etf or get these options just because i did i really want you guys and girls to think for yourselves make your own decisions i'm just planning the seed here i've been thinking about this for a while it's really become apparent to me now that we're at the tipping point of something enormous and i would like to participate in some of that upside growth
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