저자: 짐크레이머 · 외국인
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테슬라 주가 상승은 계속될 것이라는 결론이다. 테슬라의 S&P500 편입으로 지수 리밸런싱이 일어나 기존 대형주들이 매도되었고, 이는 시장 전체에 충격을 줬다. 크레이머는 테슬라를 시장에서 가장 중요한 이야기로 평가한다. 개별 종목 투자가 인덱스 펀드보다 우월하다고 주장하며, 시가총액 상위 10~15개 기업이 향후 5~10년간 지수 내 비중을 더 키워 S&P10 같은 지수가 S&P500을 크게 앞설 것이라고 예측한다. 테슬라는 자율주행 로보택시와 배터리 기술에서 경쟁자가 없어 장기 성장 여력이 충분하다고 보며, 현재 시가총액 약 6000억 달러가 2030년에는 수조 달러가 될 수 있다고 전망한다. 이 때문에 보유자들은 매도하지 않을 것이라고 본다. 과거 발언으로는 테슬라 주가가 올라도 그 가치를 믿는 투자자들이 팔지 않는다는 점, 머스크의 목표 달성 능력에 대한 신뢰 등이 언급된다. 다만 고평가 논란에 대해서는 미래 가시성이 높아 밸류에이션이 정당화된다고 반박한다. 리스크로 고평가 논란과 공매도 측의 비판(짐 채노스 등)이 언급되지만, 크레이머는 이를 근거 없다고 일축한다.
다듬은 글
personally i'm a big believer in the car the stock and the man behind it you don't have to like elon musk i mean the guy called me a simulation but you should respect his ability to make money for you i bet tesla has more upside as musk keeps meeting and beating his targets clips of jim cramer sharing his thoughts on tesla stock whether tesla stock can continue to rally and looking back at some of his thoughts and comments on both tesla and elon musk throughout the year the action today dow falling 124 points hasn't been sinking 0.35 percent nasdaq declining seven basis points had nothing to do with the code and everything to do with tesla's admission to the s p 500 the close of trading that means the whole index needs to be rebalanced to make room for a stock that just won't quit including today where tesla closed up 39 for a while now wall street's been fixated on the gyrations of high-flying super stocks and it doesn't get more high-flying than tesla darn things already up 70 since we learned it was going to join the s p but to make room for tesla in the s p and the s p index funds well the other components had to be sold today usually new entrants to the s p are so small but tesla is one of the 10 largest companies in america by market cap so the impact reverberated throughout the whole market now this is a fair point from kramer for those of you that didn't pay super close attention to the wider stock market on friday a bunch of big names down amazon apple google etc why well a lot of these stocks needed to be sold by funds to actually make room for their purchases of tesla stock and that's exactly what we saw this impact of tesla's inclusion in the s p 500 literally sent shock waves through the stock market we keep coming back to tesla because it's captivated a whole generation of investors who don't mind paying up for a 650 billion dollar technology company that happens to make cars i think the evolution of tesla the stock not the company has changed the character of the entire stock market i think it's the most important story in yours now kramer's comments could be mistaken for hyperbole here but he really means what he's saying this isn't the first time that kramer has made this statement that tesla stock is the most important story he's seen in years and he's kind of got a point i mean i could name more than one youtube channel with well over a hundred thousand subscribers solely focused on content relating to tesla and tesla stock there's an insatiable appetite for investors to learn about this company the stock and to follow the story sure we've seen this trajectory before under the leadership of jeff bezos uh amazon's taking over the world netflix became a national pastime right when we celebrate what ceo roy reid hastings has done we believe them all the way but tesla takes that same story and cranks it up to an 11 it's become the ultimate love the product buy the stock stock with a legion of adoring fans again amazon and netflix have the same dynamic but you don't see people worshipping bezos or oh you don't see them all we're upstreaming hastings from netflix even though i think they should no they worship elon musk speaking of worshiping elon musk let me know in the comments below if you're an elon musk fanboy or fan girl in a way tesla's a bit of a lottery ticket that paid out for a huge number of people you just had to believe the rally's been so visible that it spawned a new generation of investors who want individual stocks not index funds because index funds can't give you such returns for what it's worth there's nothing intrinsically wrong with index fund investing if you're an average investor with average goals seeking average returns go for your life but there's one slight issue with index funds they're backwards looking they're a snapshot of today they don't account for future growth and disruption and innovation this is why i'm much more interested in investing in individual stocks where i can see potential for enormous seismic disruption of industries of technologies and the way people go about doing things in fact here's a prediction just to illustrate my point if you take the top 10 or 15 companies within the s p 500 index today and look at their market capitalization the percentage of market cap that they contribute to the entire s p 500 i can guarantee you that over the next five ten plus years these companies in the top 10 15 within the s p 500 index will make up a much much larger percentage of the overall market cap of the index over time because they're going to be disrupting the rest of the companies in the index they're going to be taking away their business making them obsolete in other words if there was an s p 10 index or an s p 15 index just the largest companies in the entire index the returns on that fund would absolutely destroy the returns of the s p 500 index over any period of time in the next decade or two mark my words personally i'm a big believer in the choir the stock and the man behind it you don't have to like elon musk i mean the guy called me a simulation but you should respect his ability to make money for you i bet tesla has more upside as musk keeps meeting and beating his targets i'm thrilled the stock has made so many people so much money as am i shout out to all the tesla and airs and everybody else who's done very well on tesla stock and i have to say i get a really nice warm fuzzy feeling knowing that i started this channel in time my goal was to stand on top of the biggest roof i could find and shout at the top of my lungs hey everybody i'm pretty sure everyone's missing a massive trick on tesla stock um probably headed to the moon here's why i think that's going to happen hello hello hello i'm really glad i started the channel in time because you know if i was six months off probably would have been a different story so shout out to all the early subscribers too and i'm ecstatic that it's helped a generation a new whole new generation fall in love with stock picking like i did in 1979 now once the index funds finished selling everything else to make room for the 650 billion dollar behemoth i'm betting the santa claus rally resumes well you heard it folks kramer's suggesting that he believes the tesla stock rally will continue now it's time for a retrospective look at some of jim cramer's thoughts regarding tesla stock throughout 2020.
he's the master deflector he is pt barnum i totally believe in elon musk jim they could raise two billion dollars like that that was the religious conversion the conversion was right there because then i knew rob that the balance sheet was not in question i think there's a lot of things under the the hood of tesla that are very positive uh i think that wall street uh has decided to get on board with tesla um there seems to be very little notion that it matters exactly what price what market cap the company is and i think tesla has the possibility of being a major technology company that also makes cars if you take it as a company that produces energy that is clean that can be used in many different ways then you start thinking about well that's an interesting company they can use it for uh cars maybe they can use it for trucks maybe they can use it for other things and uh next you know maybe they're producing the energy for ever cheaper prices and uh so you do have this tech company that revolves around energy that's clean that produces course i totally believe in uh elon musk and i really believe that it's got bright uh really bright hopes let's say tesla goes down how long is it gonna stay there day two days an hour the people who want to own tesla think the tesla which by the way is a 400 billion dollar company they think it should be a trillion dollar company frame has touched on a very important psychological point here the mindset of the average tesla stock investor at least the average retail tesla stock investor is why on earth would i sell the company now when i believe in the future it's going to be worth a trillion dollars or more and just for the record my estimation for tesla's market capitalization in 2030 is in the trillions with an s plural how many i don't know at least a couple maybe more depends a lot on autonomous robo taxes and how much impact that has on the business overall either way i think we've got a very long way to go from where we are today i'm not suggesting all that valuation will be realized within tesla stock in the next couple of years but by 2030 i'm extremely confident that tesla will have a multi-trillion dollar market capitalization and obviously if i believe that tesla stock today with a 600 or so billion dollar market cap is going to be worth trillions of dollars over the next 10 years i'd have to be an actual [ __ ] to sell the stock unless there's an emergency between now and then so i'm not going to and many other tesla stock investors have the same mindset why would they sell this asset today when they can see enormous potential in the future and we can relate this back to tesla's current market cap a lot of commentators say the stock is absolutely insanely overvalued at this point in time first of all we need to separate these comments from people that think tesla's an automotive manufacturer shout out to jim chanos i mean honestly this is just so incredibly dumb dopey and short-sighted that it doesn't even need to be addressed there's others who say the stock is completely overvalued they don't understand that tesla's future has far greater visibility than many other companies what do i mean by this why am i saying this it's quite simple if you look out into the future some companies you have very clear visibility out a few years others it goes much further tesla is one of those companies where an intelligent investor who does their homework can see very clearly very far out into the future tesla has laid the groundwork to absolutely dominate autonomous robo taxis who else has laid this groundwork no one therefore there's a very clear runway for tesla to take an outside share of this market this is obvious tesla has also laid out a roadmap to develop their own battery cells and dramatically reduce the cost of batteries which is going to give them an enormous lead nobody else is pursuing this battery cell technology therefore the runway for tesla to dominate in terms of battery cost and performance is very clear and goes very far out into the future i could give a dozen other examples as well the point is tesla's valuation does look crazy until you factor in the fact that people can see further into the future for tesla and the future looks clearer and brighter than most other companies so a lot of that future valuation is being pulled forward because it's so [ __ ] obvious that tesla has won the decade and it's just stopping them you're not going to get a ceiling on tesla uh and you're not because the guy's laying out a 10-year road map and people are buying it it's one of those situations where and i've seen this periodically in my life uh where everyone's just behind the stock and no one wants to sell it the idea that you could have another tesla is uh would be remarkable tesla has the models that people want tesla will sell everything that it makes and it's tesla time it's hard to argue with jim cramer on this point it really is tesla's time in fact as i've said previously tesla has won the decade the 2020s belonged to this company to some this is painfully obvious to a few dullards lagging behind they haven't quite figured it out yet but i'm telling you now tesla has won the decade they will become the world's largest automotive manufacturer by vehicle sales and they'll become the world's largest company by market capitalization before the decade is out mark my words i'm stephen mike an
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