저자: CathieWood · 외국인
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결론: 캐시 우드는 테슬라를 ARK의 최고 확신 종목이자 최대 비중으로 제시하며, 자율주행 택시와 전기차 확산이 시장 예상보다 훨씬 빠를 것이라 주장한다. 자율주행 택시: 자율주행 택시 네트워크 승자는 2030년까지의 현금흐름 모델 기준으로 2조 달러 가치가 있다고 봄. 우버·리프트 같은 승차공유 기업은 데이터 수집과 센서 장착이 안 돼 승자가 될 수 없다고 주장. 테슬라를 1순위 종목으로 꼽음. 전기차 확산: 배터리 원가 하락이 핵심 동인이라고 강조. 2025년 전기차 가격이 약 1만 5천 달러로 내려가 내연차 평균 2만 5천 달러 대비 저렴해질 것으로 예상. EIA가 2022년 전기차 판매를 25만 대로 전망했으나 실제는 훨씬 크게 빗나갔다고 비판. 테슬라 생산·인도 전망: 2020년 약 50만 대, 2021년 약 100만 대, 2030년 약 2,250만 대로 추정. 월가 애널리스트 전망은 이에 크게 못 미친다고 주장. 2023년 전기차 판매 1,700만 대 추정, 2026년 2,600만 대 전망. 목표가·시장 평가: 월가 최고 목표가 900달러는 현 주가 600달러 기준의 낙관 수준으로 언급되며, 캐시 우드는 테슬라가 분할 전 기준 수천 달러까지 갈 수 있다고 주장. 테슬라 시가총액 규모(당시 약 400억 달러 기업)가 2028년 2.7조 달러 기회로 확대될 것이라 전망, 이는 현재 글로벌 에너지 섹터 전체보다 큼. 투자 자금 흐름: ARK Innovation ETF가 하루 2.75억 달러 순유입을 기록해 액티브 ETF 최대 규모로 성장. 총 운용자산 157억 달러 돌파. 리스크·조건: 전기차 확산이 S커브를 따른다는 전제에 의존. 자율주행과 배터리 원가 하락 일정이 지연되면 전망은 빗나갈 수 있음. 영상 제작자는 전망 오류를 지적하며 캐시 우드의 과거 낙관 전망을 회의적으로 다룸. 출연자 전망: 캐시 우드는 자신의 예측이 10년 후 증명될 것이라고 확신하며, 전문가 이견을 기회로 해석.
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tesla is one of the most maligned stocks in the stock market and i'm one of the most trolled portfolio managers on twitter in the world because of tesla but our conviction here is it is our highest conviction stock it is the largest position in our portfolios we think the autonomous taxi opportunity is going to be even bigger so uh if we knew today who was going to win in the autonomous taxi network market given the cash flow models we've done out to 2030 we and which are these are software as a service or transportation as a service models very high margin models we would be willing to pay two trillion dollars today for those companies in the marketplace many people think ride-hailing companies are going to be the autonomous taxi network providers they are not they haven't been collecting data they're they haven't outfitted the cars with sensors to collect the data to train uh autonomous vehicles tesla has that's our number one pick of course kathy so you think generally speaking it would be better if people shared their thoughts about your analysis and the researcher mark invest in the comments rather than describing how hot tasha looks every single video yeah but you know what just one second hey tasha do you agree does it bother you about all these creepers in the comments always just saying tasha looks hot as [ __ ] yeah yes okay cool all right i'll let him know um yeah tasha actually agrees with you kathy all right cool i've got to go see you later oh hey i didn't see you there in this video i'm going to be reacting to some clips of arc invest cathy wood sharing her thoughts around tesla disruptive innovation investing in general and why the vast majority of stock analysts and retail investors have completely missed the mark on both tesla and disruptive innovation in general battery pass tipping points this is uh energy storage is is going to transform um our economies we've built our economies on the industrial combustion engine the developed world has at least and that is about to change radically and you know this is the first time in more than a hundred years that we've had this kind of a change it is such a change that is very difficult to get investors to understand how quickly this is going to happen this is a massive massive understatement from kathy wood here most investors most people in general have absolutely no conception of what an s curve adoption rate looks like unless you're talking to somebody like tony seba the folks over at arc invest or a few random weirdos on youtube the vast majority of people out there in the marketplace and also general consumers have absolutely no concept of how quickly ebs will go from almost none of the new vehicle market to almost all of the new vehicle market in fact let me once again share my tesla production and delivery estimates with you guys going out to 2030.
now doesn't this look absolutely absurd i've got tesla delivering around half a million vehicles in 2020 then about a million in 2021 and by 2030 22 and a half million vehicles per year my production capacity estimates are a little bit larger but obviously you've got to factor in downtime etc now these estimates aren't going to be completely accurate but the point i'm making is the trend maybe this shifts one or two years in either direction but this is the likely growth we're going to see on tesla's production over time mark my words meanwhile even the most bullish wall street analysts aren't even close to a fraction of these numbers let me tell you something they will be wrong i will be right and this video will be here in 10 years to prove it so to give you an example of that and it's all because of battery cost declines remember i say cost is the reason always always always that's where it starts the technology and then the cost coming down so three years ago when we started doing well really three to four years ago when we started doing this work the eia made an estimate for electric vehicles they took it out to 2022 and their estimate then was the number of electric vehicle sales in 2022 on here we have 2023 but in 2022 was going to be 250 000 units in 2018 this chart updated would be nearly 1.5 million that that was just a two-year difference they were making a projection for five to six years out and they were wrong by orders of magnitude talk about being catastrophically embarrassingly wrong i mean really orders of magnitude off the actual numbers this is a fast and this is the point if you go back and look at some of the ridiculous outrageous crazy bullish predictions of ev adoption rates in the past people were literally laughed out of the room when sharing them and they've turned out to be accurate and we're going to see this repeat many times over until people finally wake up and realize that this ev transition is happening and it is following an s curve adoption rate and it is going to be much much faster than people realize and from a stock investor's point of view when you have a high conviction that this will happen yet the consensus opinion is that this will happen that gap is called opportunity um we believe this is about to happen again if we are right the cost of an electric vehicle is going to drop below that and this is the average electric vehicle of a gas-powered car in 2022 and it's going to keep falling so that in 2025 we'll be at 15 000 compared to 25 000 for the average gas-powered car gosh guys i'm i'm struggling to remember here can anyone remind me it must be able to marry jane it's like i have a funny feeling that a few months ago maybe tesla had an event something to do with battery cells driving the costs down and maybe at that event they suggested that in the year 2023 they'll have a 25 000 electric vehicle with full autonomy available did that happen or am i just imagining things here just just asking the question we are going electric uh not only because of cost but because they're better cars you can see our estimate for um 2023 when the eia was projecting 250 000 units for 2022 our estimate was 17 million we looked like raving lunatics we have not changed that estimate and you can see what we think is going to happen from 2022 to 23 17 million to 26.
talk about exponential growth this is going to be shocking for the transportation world the analysts out there following the auto industry are value analysts they they cannot handle growth it's just a different discipline within our business that's how siloed we've become but the auto industry the electric auto industry is going to be a growth industry the likes of which we have not seen since the model t so it's going to be pretty exciting now just to check sentiment i'd love to know so let me know in the comments below by the year 2030 what percent of new vehicles produced do you believe will be electric we think the autonomous taxi opportunity is going to be even bigger so if we knew today who was going to win in the autonomous taxi network market given the cash flow models we've done out to 2030 we and which are these are software as a service or transportation as a service models very high margin models we would be willing to pay two trillion dollars today for those companies in the marketplace anyone starting to get the impression that over the last 12 months or so that the market has started to recognize some of that potential valuation in tesla stock uh you can see on the the right hand set of charts ride hailing at the end of 2018 was valued at 240 billion dollars this includes uber and lyft and they've since gone through a down round so ride hailing is not worth that much more many people think ride-hailing companies are going to be the autonomous taxi network providers they are not they haven't been collecting data they're they haven't outfitted the cars with sensors to collect the data to train uh autonomous vehicles tesla has that's our number one pick tesla is one of the most maligned stocks in the stock market and i'm one of the most trolled uh portfolio managers on twitter in the world because of tesla well a lot can happen in a year an innovation thematic play is now the largest active etf the arc innovation etf brought in a record 275 million in inflows on thursday i mean let's just take a step back for a minute guys in one day in one day a quarter of a billion dollars flowed into this arc fund like this is insane let's continue on thursday bringing its total assets under management to 15.7 billion and shooting past the 15.2 billion in assets under the jp morgan sorry jp [ __ ] ultra short income etf bloomberg reports stephen stephen don't be so disrespectful to the wall street analyst please oh i'm sorry you may not be aware of their 90 price target on tesla stock hypothetically speaking if you were forced to invest with one of these actively managed etfs who would you prefer to have your money with the geniuses who currently have a 90 price target on a 600 stock or the fund whose founder has been in the media being laughed at mocked and ridiculed for a number of years suggesting that tesla stock would ultimately go to thousands of dollars per share pre-split by the way tesla stock split adjusted now is in the 3 000 range so yeah leave you to think about that for a moment or two but our conviction here is it is our highest conviction stock oh my god kathy me too that's amazing what a coincidence i even started a youtube channel and spent every waking hour for the last year trying to explain to everybody why i had such a high level conviction in tesla stock we're peace in a pod cafe it is the largest position in our portfolios oh my god again it's also my biggest position wow this is so crazy what a coincidence cafe is a 40 billion dollar company yeah um was a 40 billion dollar company in 2019 when this talk took place and we think it's going for that 7 trillion opportunity in 2028 that 2 7 trillion opportunity is bigger than the entire energy sector globally today how it's valued so that's today we think because of autonomous vehicles because of electric vehicles that energy valuation that 6.2 trillion is going to go down dramatically what a great place to wrap this video up i hope you guys have found this insightful i thought i'd won the clock back just over a year ago to hear some of the thoughts from kathy wood discussing tesla electric vehicle adoption and of course just to give you guys some context when this talk took place cathy wood would appear in the mainstream finance media and get laughed at mocked and ridiculed the question i have now who's laughing
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