저자: Kevin · 외국인
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AMC 주가가 최근 급등한 이유를 감마 스퀴즈, FOMO 매수, 숏 스퀴즈 세 요인으로 설명. 거래량 폭증과 콜옵션 집중이 근거로 제시됨. 본인은 포트폴리오의 0.5% 미만으로 AMC를 매매하며 6월 4일 금요일까지 73달러 풋을 7계약 매도해 1.7만 달러 프리미엄을 받았다고 밝힘. 펀더멘털 기반 상승이 아니므로 위험이 크다는 점도 언급.
다듬은 글
hey everyone we kevin here let's talk about amc because amc is up 2 900 this year it is up 95.22 today that's almost a double and it is up another 5 in after hours currently trading at 65.70 so what the heck is happening is it a gamma squeeze is it fomo is it a short squeeze and what are the strategies for investing in amc is it too late to buy is there a protected way that we can buy and try to make some money versus a lot of money should we bother what am i doing what have i done with the money that i said i would invest into amc well let's talk first thanks to the covet pandemic obviously and many lockdowns amc has been brutalized in the market and it's not a surprise that amc is not expected to be profitable at any point for really the next three years in fact forward guidance right now based on wall street indicators are that we're expecting negative earnings for amc through at least the end of 2023 and there is no guidance for 2024 or 5 that indicates profitability a lot of this has to do with a lot of leftover debt that amc still has on their balance sheet which has a lot led a lot of folks to say hey amc should just sell a bunch of shares especially while the price is higher to start eradicating their debt which is exactly what they did yesterday when they sold about eight million dollars worth of shares but they got a lot more debt to go so there's definitely more capacity for them to sell a lot more shares but let's focus right now not so much on what amc is doing because ultimately what amc does from a business point of view has to be up to them and will likely be in the best interest of the company because keep in mind if a company sells shares even though that dilutes the value for shareholders especially if you own the stock that means you own a smaller slice of the bigger pie it does give the company money to buy other movie theaters or pay off debt which ultimately is a good thing because as a shareholder in the long run you want the company not just to survive but to invest and thrive very important but now we gotta talk about more importantly the share price action that's happening right now so thanks to measures i like the short interest we are able to notice that companies like amc since march has had an increasing amount of short selling pressure piling into the stock and it's not just amc it's companies like workhorse cloverhealth many specs even kathy woods arc invest have been shorted like crazy and many companies have seen their short interests explode especially since hedge funds started shorting in february specifically biotech and tech and then eventually online consumer discretionaries february and march they ended up making a lot of money shorting these companies and they've moved into what else can we short this is why we started seeing the amc short interest move up again at the beginning of may to about mid-may we started seeing short interest go up more short pressure because the hedge funds and institutional investors or anyone shorting they're looking to make money in fact they're not just shorting biotechs and then tax and consumer discretionaries and then some of our recovery plays like amc or the spax or whatever but there is also a lot of speculation that hedge funds are part of the reason why we're seeing a massive crypto sell-off or at least have seen a substantial crypto sell-off in that hedge funds we're looking for the next best thing to short and what do hedge funds have access to that we don't shorting cryptocurrencies and so maybe they shorted the snot out of cryptocurrencies as well and so this obviously frustrates a lot of us retail investors because we don't even have access in many cases to short cryptocurrencies and even if we wanted to most of us don't like betting against our futures most of us don't like betting against our retirement portfolios or betting against the companies we work for or shop at or support short selling even though short sellers like to say it's good to weed out fraud in markets short sellers generally aren't liked there's a reason elon musk sells tesla shorts like literally short shorts and they're red and tesla sells them to make fun of short sellers but anyway retail investors in general and some institutional investors on our side are pretty tired of short sellers winning and so amc has recently become the battlefield to fight back so get this in a typical week amc usually has a trading volume of around 20 to 50 million shares per week well last week amc traded with a volume of over not 20 to 50 million but instead 2 billion shares to make that a little more clear if in a usual week we have 20 to 50 million now we've got 2 000 million in shares volume and this week has only been two days long and we've already had 1.234 billion shares already traded that's more than half of what we've had last week in just two days on a shorter week here on top of that there are an insane amount of call options that have recently been piling in on amc a typical call option on amc at any given price usually has like three to five thousand contracts on it the highest put option contract for amc right now on june 18th is a thirty dollar put with 32 000 contracts that's a lot but get this the highest option available for calls right now on amc is the 73 dollar call option the 73 call option for june 18th has 75 863 option contracts on it in other words on june 18th 7.5 million shares of amc have the right to be bought at 73 and those will be completely worthless those contracts if amc is trading for even a penny below 73 or they could be very valuable depending on how high amc goes but determining how high amc can go whether it can go to a thousand or ten thousand or a hundred thousand is very difficult at this point and that's because this rally is not fundamentally driven it is not a fundamentals rally we're not looking at the price to earnings ratio or the future price to earnings ratio or the future cash flows uh or doing a discount analysis on this to determine okay what is this worth in the future oh wow it's undervalued no what's happening right now are a combination or is a combination of three things let me explain each of these and then we're going to talk strategies so number one gamma squeeze and delta hedging so this sounds really complicated i'm just going to make this very very simple so delta it has to do with the change in price of an option gamma has to do with the rate of change of the change in price now if you didn't understand what i just said don't even worry about it because here's the real simple bottom line because that's the delta hand gene gamma squeeze we could we could do a whole video on that okay let's just make it even easier than that now that we've defined we know what those are okay they have to do with options pricing let's put that aside for a moment let's make this very simple call options you know what a call option is if you buy a call option you have the right to buy 100 shares per option that you have so if you say i'm gonna buy one 73 dollar call option uh with a strike on june 18th of 2021 that means on or before june 18 2021 you have the right to buy 100 shares of amc at 73 but for you to have that right somebody has to be willing to sell you those shares if they don't already own those shares the person who is giving or selling you the contract has massive risk because if the share price becomes much more expensive then it's going to cost them a lot of money to buy those shares to give you the right to buy them at 73 so the way to offset this risk or hedge that risk is by the person who's selling you that call option going out into the market and literally just buying the shares so they have the shares available for you that way they can sell you the options contract make a premium for selling you the option but what happens then oh wow all that buying of shares drives the price of the stock up people who bought call options are like oh wow i just made a lot of money on my call options because as the price of the stock goes up the price of options goes up sometimes two to three to 10x is fast depending on the duration of the option and now people buying call options are like wait a minute i'm making money really fast and i'm telling all my friends and family about all this extra money i'm making or maybe i'm not maybe i'm keeping it a secret fine whatever and guess what you go buy more call options which again forces the the seller of those call options to go buy more shares so this literally leads to this perpetual feedback loop and perpetual energy of more people buying calls more shares being bought price going up the second thing that's happening is fomo buying people are seeing people become overnight millionaires by 5 or 10xing their money with options really quickly so more people want to buy options leading to more gamma squeezing in the options it's nuts the price continues to go up and now this cycle can't go on forever but it can go on for a while why can it go on for a while because of number three the more the price goes up the more short sellers get squeezed out of their short positions that's because short sellers are borrowing their shares paying interest on those shares and they risk getting margin called because they're borrowing anytime you're borrowing if your equity goes negative or or falls too much you can get a margin call which means you have to either bring in more money to reload your shorts so to speak add more money to make sure you have equity or you just gotta give up your short position and end up covering which just literally means buying the shares so if you literally missed everything i said for the last two minutes you can either rewind or you could get life insurance in as little as five minutes by going to metkevin.com life or i could just recap it by saying people's buying lots of shares because people's buying lots of call options and because the price keeps going up more people keep buying and the more people keep buying the more the price goes up the more short sellers are like oh damn i don't know that i want to be in this trade i'ma buy more shares too to cover my short position okay so in other words lots and lots of buying all together and it's all tied together under the guys that we are apes holding on strong because it's not a guys maybe it is the truth the stronger retail buyers hold on the more those short sellers who are borrowing who are paying interest get weaker and weaker they start getting paper hands and they start covering because see as retail buyers as long as we're not borrowing we're not paying interest we're not getting short squeezed doesn't matter to us we can hold on for dear life way longer than they can because they're paying massive loan fees every day or having to feed the kitty by bringing in more money to prevent those calls those margin calls yeah so what can stop this well eventually people start selling eventually people start taking profits or you get brokerages that because of the dtcc or whatever stop allowing us to buy out of the money call options on amc kind of like what they what they did with gamestop back in on january 28th of 2021 which i'll never forget because it was my birthday and i covered it live and this is why you always want to make sure to subscribe to my content hit that subscribe button and you can even type meet kevin into your app store for android or apple and when i post a video like i did this morning about buying workhorse stock and then it went up like 19 you can make sure you get those alerts too totally free app just type meet kevin in your app store but anyway where do we go from here and how do we make money well remember where we go from here could potentially be dependent on what happens at brokerages if they restrict us from buying again we stop that gamma squeeze from happening which means we stop the potential short squeeze from continuing and prices could come down especially as folks decide you know what it's time for me to cash out and take some profits and take some attendees home take some of that bacon home or we could potentially which we are seeing right now see a lack of other call options available being sold to us because market makers say you know we're just not selling any more of these call options it's too risky and then we have less to buy and then maybe we're not buying those out of the money calls anymore and there's less gamma squeezing that needs to be done in the first or that ends up happening in the first place because there's less delta hedging again all that basically means is there's less pressure on buying the stock and so how do you make money on amc and is it too late to buy should you even bother buying amc right now well here are a few choices that you have number one you could literally just buy the shares the most you could lose with this strategy is a hundred percent but usually you don't lose anywhere near 100 unless the stock goes bankrupt so for example if you put ten thousand dollars into amc at sixty dollars and it goes to thirty dollars hey you lost five thousand dollars you lost fifty percent if it goes to 15 okay you're down to 2 500 you still have something left right the odds of you losing 100 generally relatively low when you buy the shares or you could buy options which the cool thing about options is they are a form of leverage if you get shorter term call options you have a good chance of losing 100 of your money but you could also two three four five eight x your money really really freaking fast and this is why a lot of people like i don't care this is my yolo i'll put my money in knowing i'm gambling knowing i could lose everything but right now with the movement the the roulette wheel is tilted towards green okay it's it's tilted in our favor is what it feels like but we don't know how long it'll be tilted until it tilts back it's just an odds game and it's a timing game the other thing you could do and i did this this morning is you could sell a put now usually when people hear put they're like oh my gosh put that's associated with being bearish no no no no selling a put is actually bullish see what i did was i sold a put when amc was at about 59 i sold a 73 put and i sold seven of those contracts that means that i got a seventeen thousand dollar credit so in other words i got paid seventeen thousand dollars in return i promise that this friday i will agree to buy amc shares at 73 if the price is less than 73 so if the price of amc shares is dollars on on friday at the close i have agreed to pay 73 for 700 shares at the close of business on friday in return for me making that agreement i got seventeen thousand dollars which is actually kind of like buying the shares at forty eight dollars so even though most of the day today well i would say probably like the last two thirds of the day uh amc was trading for around 58 to 65 i was basically able to buy amc shares for 48 which is really cool and i did that by selling a put now the downside is if uh amc goes up to a hundred dollars or a hundred fifty dollars i don't get to participate in that gain because all i'm gonna get to keep is my seventeen thousand dollars i don't have a call option so i don't have a right to own any of the shares i would then have to go in the free market on friday take my extra 17 grand and go shopping for these now more expensive shares the other downside would be if amc shares fall a lot i would be forced to buy at 48 which could be overpaying but i did get paid that 17 000 credit which is letting me buy them for 48 and i'm okay with that because i said i would be buying amc shares this week so that is a creative option that you could use to lower your cost basis when you know you're going to buy within a time frame anyway and i made an agreement that i would buy this week and so that is an option that i took it actually de-risked my investment and it gave me an option to get into amc at a lower price which is really cool and if i don't get assigned the options or if i don't get assigned the shares i could always buy the shares now i have an extra 17 000 as well which is kind of cool so it would be a profitable move i'm very very happy with the decision to sell some puts we'll see what happens though i'm very very tempted to buy calls but remember this every day the market is green your risk goes up i would love an opportunity to have a little dip in the market and then buy some calls but hey i don't make the market number four way to make money on amc is you could do the dirty and take bearish positions like shorting buying a put or selling a call but we're not going to discuss those here because ultimately that's for hedge funds or people who want to hedge their portfolio and we're not going to talk about that that's an option for you though and i want you to know that's available but it's not something i'm considering doing and it's not something that i think most of us watching really care to hear about right now so what about the future well folks remember as price comes down your risk goes down as price goes up your risk goes up price is way up this is very very very very very risky now with great risk can sometimes come really really really great rewards and i think that's what we're keeping our fingers crossed on is that we can on friday buy some big fat call options or tomorrow buy some big fat call options make some really big attendees take that money invest in either more call options or just take our money and run and go wow we won at las vegas and we won at the casino that's great you just have to know when to walk away from the table and for right now i don't think anybody's walking away from the table because this is ape nation and we're holding on now we'll see what happens going forward but i'm excited for friday because if i don't get assigned those shares i'll probably be going shopping for some options we'll see not financial advice don't sue me bro if you lose all your money remember just for clarity i am trading into amc right now with less than one half of one percent of my portfolio so i want you to always know risk adjusted how much of my portfolio i am putting into these place ake sure to subscribe if you found it helpful
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