저자: Kevin · 외국인
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스테이블코인의 재담보(rehypothecation)와 레버리지 누적이 크립토 붕괴 위험을 키운다는 기존 주장을, 블룸버그 기사의 데이터(테더 준비금 구성, 중국 집중, 상위 주소 보유 비중)로 뒷받침. 테더는 상업어음·무담보 대출 비중이 크고 감독 규제가 약해 출금 중지 위험이 있다고 경고. 본인은 포트폴리오의 약 1.4%만 비트코인·이더리움에 보유하며 저가 매수를 고려하나 미지의 레버리지에 대한 불안을 표명. 영상 내 광고 및 구독 요청 포함.
다듬은 글
today's sponsor is public.com you'll get one free stock when you go to public.com meet kevin to download the public app that's public.com meet kevin more on them in just a moment just make sure when you go there follow me and you'll get one free stock link's also in the description hey everyone meet kevin here two months ago i posted this video called how the complete collapse of cryptocurrencies would happen has 194 000 views and folks yesterday evening a new piece came out from bloomberg that basically feels like i watched my video did a whole crap ton of research and gave us the scenario as to how what i speculated about potentially could happen two months ago could actually happen and they gave us the stats and data and i'm like i need to share this with you all cause it's a little intense let me give you a quick background in case you didn't watch that video or didn't remember that video let me give you a very very simple introduction to this and then we're going to get into the stats and figures so buckle up this gets a little uh yeah it gets intense all right so very basic overview you've heard of stable coins before maybe you haven't maybe you've just heard of tether or you've heard and this is not just a tetherfud video don't you've heard about the gemini dollar or coin usa whatever you've heard about these different coins before that basically say hey your coin is worth one dollar it's pegged to the dollars the value of the coin is one dollar and the purpose of having the usdc whatever the u.s stablecoin the purpose of this is to be able to transact cryptocurrencies faster we don't have to wait for your u.s dollar to uh to to show up we could give you a coin and rather than trying to wire u.s dollars around or other currencies around uh which are subject to government regulation especially in china where you know chinese government isn't really too fond of cryptocurrency right now hey if you had stable coin well single coins those those aren't the renminbi so it's uh something that's not regulated and it gives you more freedoms so anyway these stable coins have this allure of easier blockchain transactions because they're on the blockchain but they're also pegged to the dollar so the argument is that they'll always be worth a dollar and there are many companies that have or use these table coins and they offer interest on these stable coins and in my video from two months ago i talked about how there's a real dangerous opportunity for rehypothecation to get out of hand and for massive lending combined with a price decline in cryptocurrencies to lead to a complete collapse of stable coins now stable coins drop or or collapse generally when they do something known as breaking the dollar so here's the thing when you have a gemini coin you believe it is worth one dollar and that makes sense because gemini tells you hey look we audit our sable coin so that we have 106 million gemini dollars in circulation and we have 106 million dollars in an account well that's fine when you read the footnote you notice that these are actually not just sitting in cash they're invested into goldman sachs money market funds and treasury securities fine let's call those relatively safe and relatively worth a dollar but the issue that i came up with in my other video wasn't necessarily that the gemini dollar would break the dollar although it's possible and this is why every time there seems to be a little bit of panic in the crypto spaces you immediately see brokerages start freezing withdrawals it's a concern but what was a bigger issue with my gemini dollar video was how many times are these 106 million dollars lent out see because if i have gemini dollars and i want to earn you know with with gemiini earn or whatever i want to earn five percent on my gemini dollar and i authorize the lending out of this well that could have been done 10 20 different times we don't know how many times it could have been done this could literally gemini dollars could literally be worth instead of 106 million dollars which honestly feels a little long it could be worth 10 20 50 100 billion dollars the market cap or or the amount of money circulating based in the gemini dollar based on loaned out versions of these existing assets could be massive so you could literally have a million people out there looking and going oh yeah i got a ton of gemini dollars thinking it's a savings account when in reality because they signed up for earning interest they've lent it out and now the potential is that if for some reason the lending market collapses one day they may no longer be able to redeem their gemini dollars for dollars because all of these other people are basically going bankrupt in some kind of liquidity crisis or some kind of freezing of withdrawals totally possible and this is how cryptocurrencies in that video from two months ago this is how i overall made the argument that there is a risk factor when it comes to stable coins they're not guaranteed to be at one dollar especially if you're turning on that uh that lending aspect and lots of things could screw up the market now we overall went through that sort of scenario and we're like uh okay yeah it could happen but hey we'd have to see a pretty large drop in bitcoin pricing and the pricing of other crypto assets well guess what's happened over the last two months we've seen kryptos fault a good sizable chunk now they're not like massively sold off it's not like we're at bitcoin 5000 in that but this brings up the bloomberg article and see this is where i really wonder did bloomberg and and credit to them okay did bloomberg see my video and i'm not trying to take credit for this okay but then go really deep on the research because the research and what i'm going to show you is very very good it's incredibly good now it is opinion piece but let's put that aside let's look at some of the research and let's just draw some conclusions okay so i'm going to show you the article we're going to go through the most important pieces of it together that brings us to today's sponsor public.com kevin an investing app where you can buy and sell stocks follow investors and share ideas public is the best place to invest especially if you want to follow other users portfolios or see what your friends or other people you follow are investing in for example i really love that i'm about to invest in google alphabet and i see this little icon over here at the top right or when i scroll down i see here people you follow who also own or watch this stock and i see grams in here and i gotta own more google than graham does okay google pays me along on youtube you know love google i think that's pretty neat i joined public so you can see my public a portfolio as well if you search for at meet kevin in the app keep this in mind public does not sell your data or information to third parties or market makers like other investment apps and alphabet i'm going in on this you'll get to see how much i'm buying especially as i transfer more money on over to the public app so check this out make sure you get that free stock when you go to public.com meet kevin download the public app once again that's public.com meet kevin follow me there and get one free stock the link is also in the description all right so the piece starts off by talking about how in 2008 there was a run on a lehman brothers money market fund worth 64.8 billion dollars because 1.2 percent of the fund's assets became worthless so just 1.2 percent became worthless and the markets freaked out and everybody wanted to get their money because now the sudden things weren't worth a dollar anymore they were basically worth 98.9 98.8 cents and all of a sudden there was this massive run on money markets and the only way the episode of this massive run ended was the treasury department came in and basically guaranteed all money market funds now what's really interesting about money market funds is yeah sure the treasury department the government the sec whatever the federal reserve they can come bail you out but guess who they're not going to bail out if there's ever a run on stable coins because the government don't like stable coins at least from what we could tell so far maybe they'll have like a central bank digital currency in the future we know they're working on that but it's very interesting you do not have mr bailout man coming to save you uh or woman because we've got janet yellen okay got jerome powell and jana young uh and so this is where they go into cryptocurrencies and specifically they point out tether now again this is not just tether fod i want to go through and i know some of it is going to seem a little fetish but i want to go through some of the stats because they're very very interesting and we'll draw conclusions here okay so take a look at this we know that tethers are supposed to be pegged to a dollar and tether says that the dollar is backed up by whatever tethers reserves are well here's what tethers reserves are made up of 50 percent is in commercial paper remember how at lehman brothers one percent or sorry 1.2 percent was in commercial paper that became worthless and with 1.2 percent there was a massive run on all money markets that the treasury department had to bail out okay tether has 50 of their reserves in commercial paper with no details provided about the quality fiduciary deposits represented 18 but more troubling they say 10 was in corporate bonds funds and precious metals and 13 were in secured loans to miscellaneous entities that we have no idea about and then there was one to two percent which of of basically tether money that goes into other which can include other digital coins so in other words people could be like putting their money into tether borrowing against their tether to invest in uh cryptocurrencies but then tether itself can be investing in if they wanted to junk bonds uh other loans or uh other coins and so it like it creates this insane buildup of assets that are actually not backed by a dollar they're backed by commercial loans which we have no idea how good they are other tokens corporate bonds like this right here that this is a scary paragraph and i'm always concerned that how many other stable coins are doing this kind of stuff now again gemini says no no we use the treasuries but it's all in treasuries i don't know i have no idea it's money market see here we'll go back really quick to oh not cnbc there we go gemini dollar accounts are held and maintained by state bank uh state street bank and trust which keep in mind they they like to say oh well there's fa pass through fdic insurance on this don't kid yourself you're only getting fdic insurance if that bank fails not if the stable coin fails uh now they're saying that the gemini dollars are invested into uh you know treasuries here which is good but keep this in mind that gemini dollar the gemini dollar is actually the smaller of the stable coins tether is the biggest one tethers huge i mean let's look at it really quick gemini dollars at about 106 million you can go to coin market cap right now and just look at this for example tethers market cap is 61 billion dollars it's literally let's see 61 61 000 divided by 100 and what was it 107 something like that hold on let's grab it real quick here yeah 107.
all right it's 570 times as large tether is 570 times as large so even that gemini might be okay doesn't remove the risk of all that rehypothecation that's going on but the united states tether is that 62 billion dollars of a market cap 80.9 billion of it has been transacted in the last 24 hours that's two and a half times as much as bitcoin gets transacted tether is very very important to the crypto market and that is a scary diversification in terms of how they're investing their crypto reserves all right so then we also have fine print that says tether and we know this has the right to delay any redemption or withdrawal if such delay is necessary is necessity necessitated cheese by the illiquidity or unavailability or loss of any reserves in other words if they can't give you your money because people are running the bank and everybody wants their money out of tether they have the right to pause withdrawals now they also make this clarification that here a real money market fund would never be allowed to do that because they're regulated by the security and exchange commission and there are only certain things you can invest your money into but tether doesn't have any of those requirements and their auditing requirements are whatever they want so we don't know uh like with gemiini we don't know how many times it's lent out and where does the money go when it's lent out we don't know to whom it's being lent we don't know where those tethers are going gemini is probably a lot safer than tether given where tether is putting all their money but holy smokers and so we notice here here's a little bit more talk about look at this a jp morgan research report earlier this year said that 50 to 60 percent of all bitcoin trades are for tether and that a sudden loss of confidence in tether would likely generate a severe liquidity shot to shock to bitcoin markets and so so this is how you can see like it's all kind of tied together uh and then we also talk here about particularly because of the recent rise in crypto prices that we've seen over the last few months in general right if we go six pack six months back to now not like the last few weeks where we've had a little bit of a sell-off but the argument here is that we know that leverage has gone up and but the problem is we don't know how much leverage there is in the stablecoin market and in the crypto market and so that's dangerous so if we continue to see prices fall and then liquidity goes down you could see withdrawals get shut down for tether and that could lead to some big old issues but wait a minute who has all the tether well check this out approximately 65 percent of tether tokens are held through the chinese exchange huabi and that it could be that chinese investors convert renminbi into tether in order to trade other cryptocurrencies while avoiding legal or regulatory constraints remember china does not like kryptos right and this is the scarier part so a ton of it 65 is in china but the scarier part is that the top 10 tether addresses hold a quarter of the market and the top 100 hold 41 of all tokens so it does not take a lot of people to start dumping tether to have a massive scary result in the crypto market then they talk a little bit about how libra was supposed to be this world stable coin but politicians were afraid this would undermine united states sovereignty or country sovereignty but fear not tether has its reserves at a small bank in the bahamas so don't worry it's good all the money's over at the bahamas but then they end the article by saying hey maybe we should just have a little bit more clarity and regulation on these stable coins and folks i hate to say it but it's literally what we talked about two months ago that we have so little knowledge about where the stablecoin money is going and all of the lending that's happening in the stablecoin market that we don't actually know how much of cryptocurrency prices are just propped up by debt upon debt but not just debt upon debt debt issued on the belief that the underlying asset is worth a dollar when in reality the underlying asset is actually just somebody else's debt like a corporate bond or a junk bond or whatever you have to always ask yourself why is it that they can pay you four percent five percent eight percent on your stable coins it's just it just seems a little too good to be true that you could put your savings into a stable coin get eight percent and not be exposed to some risk so i'm a little concerned if you want to read the article yourself they did change the title it's can a cryptocurrency break the buck i was posted yesterday i thought it was a really really really good piece this is something to pay attention to and what my recommendation here is well look first of all i like the idea of being able to buy the dip in cryptocurrencies but i am deathly afraid of how much unknown leverage there is in the crypto markets and i've been talking about this for months i've got maybe right now about two percent of my portfolio no that's wrong i've got about 1.4 of my portfolio in bitcoin and ethereum that's it uh and uh look i love love the premise of kryptos but uh and i'm not just trying to do the oh fudd sell everything look i'm not selling i'm looking at buying dips but i this this kind of stuff makes me a little nervous from going like all in or going heavier in these are just things that i think are very valid to pay attention to uh it's not something that's just like oh let's let's fud sell everything no no no it's just when you're an investor you want to be aware of the upsides and the downsides and this is one area that is folks i'm excited to talk to you again in the future let's get another video going subscribe so much
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