저자: EverythingMoney진행자—출연자미상,사회자1인발언 · 외국인
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TSM(대만 반도체 제조)은 52주 저점 59달러 대비 현재 86달러 수준. 순부채 약 190억 달러로 낮고 PER 14.5, 배당 2.2%. 2022~23년 반도체 호황으로 매출·이익이 급증했으나 이 수준이 지속될지 불확실하다고 봄. 매출총이익률 57%, 5년 평균 순이익(173억)이 잉여현금흐름(98억)을 크게 상회해 설비투자 증가가 원인이라 주의 필요. 경기 둔화 조짐으로 신중론. 스톡 애널라이저 모델 기준 적정가 50~70달러, 80~100달러 구간도 언급. 60달러 이하 풋 매도 고려는 본인 의견이 아니라 과정 설명으로 언급.
다듬은 글
Taiwan semiconductor manufacturing oh semiconductors are great let me just go buy something to start your company guys I love high margin businesses love it love it awesome very low debt company Taiwan semiconductor has come off its lows and got a lot of attention because our good friend Warren Buffett at Berkshire Hathaway has bought some now keep in mind I don't know if it was Warren himself remember that a lot of times there's a lot of purchases made at Berkshire by other people besides Warren Buffett however they are people that Warren Buffett truss so that is something to keep in mind so let's take a look at TMC and do a little analysis oh wait TSM sorry TSM Taiwan semiconductor manufacturing now guys 52-week High just say oh a year ago a couple days ago 145.
52-week low recently of 59 bucks it's now back at 86 so down 35 but it was down pretty low back in November pretty low couple things I like about it first off market cap Enterprise Value the difference here is net cash and debt so they only have net 19 billion dollars in debt here awesome very low debt company one year P of 14 and a half I want you guys remember don't just focus on one year PES the semiconductor business has been skyrocketing and you'll see in the income I haven't even looked at it yet I can assure you that the numbers look very different in the last year or two they did in previous years probably a very large jump the question is is that a permanent level or are we gonna go back to normal levels that's the question dividends 2.2 not bad here's the issue 9.4 billion and paid last year they did 17 billion in free cash flow but in the last five years their average was 9.8 so again the question is are we at a new high or are we going to go back to our normal levels very high five-year return on invested Capital sixteen point three percent love it love it so there's a lot of things here that are positives but also things to think about so let's go look at that income statement like I said look at this jump go back a few years 31 33 34 42 49 68.
this is the whole big boom in semiconductors shortage of semiconductors prices were higher what is the gross margin on this company gross margin wow 57 that means for every dollar they sell extra they get 57 cents that they can use to pay for overhead and income taxes 57 cents of it that is huge comparatively Microsoft 68 and that's a software business it has no like actual like Hardware costs and a bottom line profit margin look at these numbers 38 over the last five years or guys I love high margin businesses I love them every investor does because the if you can get a high margin business with a high return on invested Capital home run City you should pay a premium for a company like Taiwan semiconductor these metrics right here give a justification for paying a premium the question is how much of a premium what is going to happen out there in the market is somebody here is then thinks oh my God I got to pay a premium let me just buy it no every investment still the present value of all future cash flow it is still very possible to overpay for a good thing in fact it's very common it's very common to overpay for a good thing and that's the problem we have in investing oh semiconductors are great let me just go buy some conductor company I was with some family this weekend and one of the kids said oh yeah legalize gambling in Ohio now I'm gonna go buy pen gaming I said why he goes well because it's going to keep going up it's like why is that he goes you don't think so I'm like well I don't know I really don't have a clue all I know is he just heard gaming was legal therefore let me buy a gaming company by the way smart kid I like the fact that he even thought that way to have the conversation and even ask the question oh why I like that he asked that itself anyhow back to our conversation on Taiwan semiconductor let's go check out the eight pillars here all right like usual here's what I don't like when the ratio is lower when the earnings ratio is lower than the free cash flow ratio it actually means that they're showing higher earnings than free cash flow so let's go see what their average earnings are so on the income statement we scroll down our software and we provide you with this five-year average of 17.34 billion in earn net income and for cash flow the average is 9.83 why such a big difference I don't like seeing that that's kind of a red flag to me why they're reporting such a high earnings and low free cash flow I don't like that at all in fact to me for me that might be a reason I already ignore it unless the free cash flow can justify the current valuation that's the only reason I would be fine with that but here based on what I see on the eight pillars it's hard to justify 43 price the free cash flow in a business that's cyclical and probably the tail end of their very very good economic growth cycle we're not hearing I don't think we're at the point now where we're coming off of a really bad worldwide recession if anything we're about ready to start one so what's going to happen to luxury good markets that these things go into now a lot of these companies put into smaller items but the PCS things like that you're already starting to see a Slowdown so I'd be very cautious here what are analysts saying well they're probably not paying much attention to the slowdowns so they're currently making now this is at a different currency this is in US dollars but I want you to focus on growth so there's not much growth in earnings per share and there's not much growth in in Revenue so so why have such a high PE and price of free cash flow immediately I think to myself pass but you probably I want to teach you because I want to teach you how to fish how to Value the company using our software so we got our stock analyzer tool and as you know our stock analyzer tool is a is a tool that's been used over 1.3 million times just in the last 365 days it's very popular in our community people share the screen they take screenshots and share it all the time here is here is where we can sit there and make our Revenue growth assumptions profit margin assumptions and then decide what to pay for a company because every investment is the present value of all future cash flow and since we don't know the future cash flow we have to make assumptions about it but look at these differences right here profit margin and free cash flow margin look how different they are 10 years five years in one year this really bothers me because whenever I always think fraud when I say I'm not saying there's a fraud here please don't take it as that but I look at it and going man unless they're spend a lot of money on growth which very well could be let's go see their Capital their cash flow remember cash flow is cash from operations unless your capital expenditure hey look at this this explains it I love it 8.8 13.4 20 23 32 and a half they really increase their their Capital expenditures this helps explain the problem boom just look at that so I'm glad I didn't jump the conclusion of ignoring it that's why we have this data here this is why I'm teaching you how to fish because I looked here and said this Capital expenditures are not expensed immediately it takes years to expenses that's why earnings will show higher and there should be a time when they stop spending as much on when they when they stabilize this this uh because look at the capital expenditure in previous years nine ten seven and a half ten twelve nine thirteen and a half 20 23 33.
big jumps there'll be a time that evens itself out so let's proceed on let's go to the stock analyzer tool again do a 20-year analysis now the issue with this 20 year analysis is we have to assume revenue is not going to fall from here will it fall from here well let's go to the income statement and see how it's done quarter to quarter and this is what I like about what we're doing here guys I want you guys to see my thought process because I really want you to understand how I view these companies September quarter they did 20.2 the previous September 13.65 that's a big jump June 17.6 12.3 so the same for the June of the previous year all right so we're waiting for the fourth quarter to report that'll be a pretty big indication of are they still Revenue growing or are they going back to a more stable level that'll be one of the times I actually do focus on their report and their earnings so back to stock analyzer tool now for Revenue growth This Is Where It's Tricky we have to make our assumptions here 20 years I'm going to be conservative and call it 5 9 and 13.
profit margin let's assume things go poorly 32 30 5 38 free cash flow margin I'm actually gonna go higher on these ones because I think it'll equate out over time let's go with 23 26 29 PE now guys the current p is 15 and a half but it's based on a really high profit margin they haven't seen however over long periods of time the average in the market is 15p should you pay more for that for fast growing companies that high we're trying to invest the capital 100 you should pay more for that the question is how much more so on the low side I'm gonna go 15 16 and a half 18.
I'm gonna do this I'm gonna do 16 17 and a half and 19 on price of free cash flow because the discrepancy between the two I want to kind of equate it out and you'll start to see my underwriting in my numbers why I do that now for desired annual return I think I'm being very conservative on the low side however I have to account for a drop in the revenue potentially to start so I'm gonna go with 12 I'm gonna go with 11 13 and 15 hit the analyze button I have on my watch list at 60 bucks as I said right here this means that when it hits 60 our software is going to send me a notification on email on my phone through the app as well as on the the software here on my desktop and it'll tell me Paul Taiwan semiconductor has hit 60 a share go do whatever you're gonna do this is not my time to buy and you shouldn't buy it at 60 just because I have it on my watch was a 60.
I am sitting there saying start selling puts on it below 60. what price I don't know but don't take these things as go out and buy learn the process so what's our value here whoa surprised to see this 50 to 70. if you believe all my numbers do your research this might be a buy today and somewhere in the middle of 80 to 100.
now I think I know why I put 60 in here even though it's a very low end of the list I do worry about the next few years there's a lot of shakeup happening there I don't know what's going to occur and I want to have more margin of safety here on this company so if you like this guys need you to do me a favor subscribe the channel it's a great place to learn how to invest and secondly if you like our software there's so much more to the software than what you saw today it's all available for less than a cup of coffee go to everythingmoney.com we have a no risk money back guarantee for the next 30 days thank you very much for your time take care myself
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