저자: EverythingMoney진행자—발언자이름미상 · 외국인
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엔비디아 주가가 고점 대비 하락해 매수 검토 대상이 될 수 있는지 분석. 매출·이익률·ROIC는 높으나 코로나 특수 매출 지속성이 불확실하다는 점을 지적. 스탁 애널라이저 기준 적정가 범위를 30~75달러 수준으로 산출했고, 진행자는 50~60달러 부근에서 매수 가능성을 언급하며 현재 80달러 부근은 비싸다고 봄. 채널 홍보 및 옵션 수익 전략 언급.
다듬은 글
hopefully we're in a market right now where everything is going to fall basically because everybody's against stocks we want that to occur because our favorite companies then will go lower in price guys Nvidia stock the reason I'm so excited to have you watch this video if you're new to the channel this is a stock that we did lots of videos on and said be very careful the stock price doesn't make sense and it has fallen a lot and so we're here to see if it's at the place where we want to buy the stock because remember guys every investment's a present value of all future cash flow and unfortunately in the short run stocks are a voting machine which means the more popular ones are going to go up less popular ones are going to go down hopefully we're in a market right now where everything is going to fall basically because everybody's against stocks we want that to occur because our favorite companies then will go lower in price if that confuses you all the more reason to listen to the channel we want to get you to the point where you're rooting for stocks to fall so you can buy more stocks right this is a very important part for our company so let's check out Nvidia stock nvda they had a high of 3 46 47 that was just at the end of 2021.
wow that was 14 months ago and now they're at 169 but they had a low of 108. I was just asking you before we started the video did this company hit a trillion dollar market cap I remember it was very close well it was at 400 billion now so double it no it did not hit there but it was close yeah guys they report earnings on the 15th of February so we'll be doing an update video when that comes around yeah so make sure if you want to learn more about Nvidia subscribe to the channel go look at our passing video videos and then for February 15th you said yeah so guys look at this PE currently of 66 5 year of 79.
now guys keep in mind this business skyrocketed because of coven let's go look at the revenue growth in the last few years because covet I mean look at this jump look at these Revenue numbers four four and a half four point nine six nine twelve dropped to 10. I don't know why that is then 14.8 24 28.
big jumps I can't I have to think that's not sustainable so the question I always ask whenever there's a big drop or big increase is this a long-term trend is this a sustainable jump in Revenue guys everybody during covet needed to have computers and processors and there was a shortage and blah blah and when there's a shortage of things what happens the price increase the prices yes Supply decreases and demand goes up it was literally like this supply and demand like this and then they went like that wait like yeah like that correct demand went up Supply went down it's begging for an increase in pricing so that's why I want to question this gross profit margin for NVIDIA yeah almost 60 so let's go look at past years that were more normal to get a general idea so whenever you want gross profit margin what you do is you look at gross profit and divided by Revenue so yeah 15 it's about 60 here okay higher than that here all right yeah so it's actually pretty typical in fact you might make the argument that their gross profit margin actually declined in the last year wow maybe because of Commodities costs under materials the raw materials cost might have gone up because of the worldwide inflation everywhere right so actually guys I I like that I immediately look at that going oh okay we might be gross profit might be lower than it should be all right let's go check out the eight pillars here real quick okay shares outstanding doesn't bother me guys this is an X they're not increasing their shares by a ton but this is the silent killer investing that we always want to tell people be careful about it make sure you watch for how many shares they're issuing because they're diluting you as an owner they're actually starting to pull them back a little bit are they yeah a little bit okay very minimal but and the question is are they buying shares back at a cheap price just because the stock goes down doesn't make it cheap remember that think about that just because something decreases in price doesn't make it cheap if I have a house it's worth a million bucks I ask 5 million for it and nobody buys it if I lower it to 2 million bucks still doesn't make it a good deal even though the price is 60 lower it's still only a million dollar house so our goal here is to find out what is this house called Nvidia worth um oh look at this The Five-Year PE 79.16 aside five year prices for cash flow 85.
but look at this roic very high that's very high right so this means they can get a really high return on their invested Capital which means they can they can give more money back to shareholders through dividends and share BuyBacks and growing the business because they need less Capital to grow the business more seems like this is a really good business it's just the the voting machine jacked it up into crazy areas and now we want the voting machine to jack it down into crazy areas it's a nice dividend point one percent 401 million dollars why bother why bother is right so analyst estimates oh wow anal assessments are tripling their profit over the next three five five years four years now keep in mind is this really something to trust these analysts work for brokerage houses and investment houses that get business from Nvidia keep that in mind when you're looking at this because look at this this is a big jump here and look how tight these estimates are the low and high estimates are very close to each other on top of each other guys I remember back in the day when Amazon was losing money and people were analysts were saying they're gonna be making seven dollars I don't think they're making seven dollars a share even now I don't think so I've granted they had a 24 and split but whatever it was it's like okay it's very hard in this world let's look at Revenue growth now guys I believe I read the chip industry has a 12 compounded annual growth rate estimate for the next 10 12 years that's pretty high and I look at this Revenue growth and uh it's pretty high I don't know why there's a random 23 maybe because they get out of all the issues of supply chain and raw materials and everybody who bought their computers two years ago are now going to buy new ones Etc I see that's the one thing I would argue is we had that big spike during covet after a 10-year flat period of computers and then all of a sudden it spiked for covid so are those people that randomly bought a computer to stay at home for school for work whatever are they going to go back and buy a new computer listen that's a question how long people keep computers for I I guess it depends I mean I keep mine three or four years and I think I'm in the I think YouTube computers three years I think that most people can keep their computers a lot longer that's what I'm trying to say yes I agree with you I think people keep the computers five years or so I mean until they die I mean look at rockmont Moses he has a pimple in the middle of he literally has a zit on his computer it's his computer it's the keyboard right here there's a bubble in it like this and he's like it's cool look at Tim I swear to God I told him like Moe's I'll buy you a computer and not this Mo our friend Rockman and by the way what do you studying College computer science computer science all right so what's this company worth well let's look at some other metrics real quick Mo look at how low the um the so guys the market cap to Enterprise Value is basically net cash and debt so this is basically the net debt on the company not a lot not a lot at all especially for a tech company for well tech companies did not have a lot of debt I don't think um I don't think they have like look at Microsoft look at Apple well big tech companies yeah so what we use is we use a stock analyzer tool and for those who are new the stock analyzer tool is so popular on our software this was used 1.3 over 1.3 million times last year 1.3 million times by our users it's so important because without not looking at the balance sheet it tells you based on your assumptions what you should pay for the stock today okay it allows you the user to be able to determine your assumptions and determine what price to pay for the stock so if you're interested in this and the other software go to everythingmoney.com less than a dollar a day and we have a money back guarantee no questions asked so Mo you're gonna take the 10-year analysis I'll take the 20-year I had a hard time with this one already I've known a video for 20 plus years it's been a leader for the chip for this Graphics business for a very very long time so we're going to make our low middle and high assumptions okay hmm their revenue already went up a ton this is already hard because of that reason yeah that's why I'm I don't know if my numbers are too high too low this is the reason this is hard guys is we think that the chip their revenue might fall because of the big jump in Revenue the last few years so that's not accounted for in our software so we have to be a little bit more conservative I think about our assumptions but if you're buying a company for the long run maybe you're okay with that I don't know this is a hard one I'm gonna stick here and we'll see if we might have something so I have my 20-year growth assumptions three five and seven I'm four seven and ten okay good profit margin I did 20 23 26 I did 19 23 and 27.
hey look at this mouth look at these low profit margin of free cash flow the last one year they were lower than the last 10 years and five years all right what'd you do for free cash flow margin 19 23 27 18 21 24. PE 14 16 and 18. 15 16 and a half and eighteen now guys if you're new to investing you're probably like wait the PE is 70 here sure but don't compare the PE to its own company go look at all companies overall the average is 15 or 16.
now there's a high return on invested capital in this business of 20 it should justify a high PE that's why I started low at 15 and went higher to 18 on the high side because I do want to give it some credit for having a high return on invested Capital they need less Capital to keep but they need to invest less Capital to keep the business growing and that's a wonderful thing for a company and finally for desired return what'd you do 12 14 and 16.
I did 13 16 and 19. yeah I went a little bit higher because of this whole drop I'm probably being too conservative but we'll see hit the analyze button it's on my watch list of 75 mine's 80. oh my God look at this yep this is terrible 30 to 30 on the low end 60 on the or I'm sorry 56 on the high end 40 on the middle why do I have it at 75 my watch list trying to figure that one out so the question you have to ask yourself is leave your high price 30.
well because I did a 19 return if we do okay that's why so let's let's look at what intrinsic value is for this company so remember guys when you want intrinsic value if the Market's going to get you 10 I consider 10 to be no margin of safety and look there you go that's probably why I have it here because I do like the return on invested capital very high return on invested Capital makes it very worthwhile but the low side is still guys it's still just numbers it's still just math and at some point I'm probably a buyer somewhere in the 50 to 60 range is my guess does it mean you should go buy it there does not mean that I'm gonna leave my watch list at 80.
just so because I'm thinking maybe this has some pretty good premium if I go out a couple months oh for options some options maybe I can get some 50 puts when the price is 80. so remember guys that's what we do to generate some income when we have stocks we like we sell options at prices lower than the current price but at prices we want to buy the stock yet so we're basically paid to wait so if you want to learn that also join the community because we have people in the community making thousands of dollars a month just doing that so guys this is NVIDIA it's a hard one and it's hard to see a company fall from three something to 150 and you go and we still say it's still overpriced big time so that's where Stan thanks very much and subscribe to the channel because the more you learn the less you fear and that's important there are three things that you absolutely need in order to be a successful investor the proper mindset the proper emotion and the proper process which one's the most important thank you
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