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the important thing is then what we all know what's going to happen over the next year information that everybody has is not helpful because we all have it investing is a matter of knowing something other people don't know today's a really really special day for me I've been invited by chairman Howard marks of oak tree Capital to his New York office and I'm pleased to share this interview today for today's interview with chairman Howard marks I've invited Mr Jay young yang as a co- interviewer who has long worked in the New York bond market and with whom I have a long-standing relationship I believe about the bond market Capital markets and investment markets we'll have a much more in-depth discussion first let me introduce Mr Jay yyang who will be interviewing with me hello everyone at SRO TV my name is Jay YY as Mr Kim mentioned I worked in US Treasury trading at hsps for 6 to S years before that I worked with subprime mortgages at sheer agist I've worked on Wall Street for nearly 20 years and now I'm managing a bond fund in the Middle East it's great to meet you all thank you shall we introduce today's main guest I'd like to introduce chairman Howard marks of oak tree capital thank you so much for your time today chairman it's a pleasure to be uh with my Korean friends again uh my trip to Soul in November uh was uh very positive and uh I'm glad to have a second opportunity to speak with you MH since our valuable interview at our office last November I want to convey that Korean people have been deeply impressed by your insights and perspective and are very grateful now with chairman Howard marks we'll ask several questions about recent major changes and he his insights a few months ago chairman you mentioned see change which could be translated in Korean as a complete transformation describing such a big change you said this was the first major change you've witnessed since entering the industry in 1959 after two previous changes since then there have been substantial changes um inflation has come down considerably and there's talk about the FED pivoting on rate hikes do you still maintain your view about the fundamental sea change that you wrote about in your memo over the last 40 years we've had virtually all the time until last year either declining interest rates or super low interest rates 40 years that means that you and I and Jacob and almost everybody who's watching have have rarely seen anything else and this has uh shaped people's expectations um they think that's normal but interest rates went from I had a loan outstanding from a bank in 1980 at 22% and then in 2020 I was able to borrow at 2% M interest rates came down by what we say 2,000 basis points yeah the one thing I'm sure of is that's not going to happen again because when interest rates are two they can't come down much in this period the second C change was the opening of investors Minds to things that uh to The Taking of risk as long as the risk appeared to be justified and rewarded yeah so uh a high degree of prudence a high degree of safety and insistence on risk avoidance all these things disappeared and now we have a weighing of risk and return this is the second C change the third CA change occurred uh well it began at at the beginning of 2009 when the FED took the FED funds rate to zero in order to stimulate the economy and fight the global financial crisis and uh began quantitative easing buying bonds which puts liquidity into the economy this worked very well and the economy made a recovery over the 13 years from the beginning of ' 09 until the end of uh 21 we had again declining or low interest rates strong economy no inflation or insignificant inflation this encouraged the FED to continue lower the SL slogan was lower for longer and with the FED able to keep interest rates low and yet not have inflation we had a strong economy easy uh easy for companies to make money yeah easy for companies to avoid default or bankruptcy easy for companies to raise financing MH even if they lost money MH happy investors eager buyers nobody was afraid MH and it was just an easy environment to get everything done and I would just say easier than normal mhm and so this can't go on forever this is what I'm talking about now is the groundwork for the third six
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