저자: HowardMarks · 외국인
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시장은 전지적 존재가 아니며 가격 움직임은 신호로만 활용하고 연구를 촉발하는 도구로 봐야 한다. 가격 급등락의 이유를 단정하기 어렵고, 전문성 없는 개인이 해석하면 자기기만이 될 수 있다. 투자 규칙은 절대적이지 않으며 손절이나 일부 익절은 장단점이 있어 개인 상황에 맞춰 판단해야 한다. 평정심과 완벽주의 배제가 중요하다. 경기침체 전망에 대해서는 과열이나 과잉투자 징후가 없어 중립적이라 단언하지 않는다.
다듬은 글
there's a rule that there's a recession every 8 or 10 years if you don't count that as a normal recession we're in the 15th year for the 16th year right uh we're due for one tomorrow I'm pretty sure there's not going to be one tomorrow I would say my Approach is to say I don't know I can't tell you but when I look around in the environment I don't see terrible excesses in the economy I don't see that consumption is overly enthusiastic I don't see that inventories are building up too high I don't see a large number of construction cranes in the sky suggesting overbuilding it tells me things are kind of in the middle ground and in the middle ground there's no a stellar conclusion to draw there's nothing you can say about the condition of our economy strongly M which has a high probability of being right M so I say nothing got it to all the viewers from the United States Korea and around the world welcome to Global money talk by SRO TV I'm your host danha today we're at the New York offices of oak tree Capital Management for a very special conversation with Howard Marx Howard really needs no introduction but for those who don't know I will say that Howard is someone that Warren Buffett pays attention to Howard has influenced and inspired generations of investors including me it is my great honor and privilege to bring you this conversation with Howard marks Howard thank you thank you Dan thanks for that nice introduction very welcome so I'd like to start with one of your recent memos Mr Market miscalculates in it um you wrote about how in the markets meaningless statements are often given weight and how a given development can be interpreted positively or negatively depending on the prevailing mood of the market which reminded me of an Amos tersi quote people accept any explanation as long as it fits the facts that said price Behavior can be a useful source of information at times so could you please give a user's manual if you will on how to use price Behavior as a source of information uh sure Dan that's a complex question of course mhm um and uh I think the basic rule in the investment world is that there are no easy answers sure um I think what you say is very important quoting fki people always say well why did that happen mhm and sometime the answer is no good reason right there's random this there's irrationality uh you know people say well he was a good man why did he die well you know there may not be a correlation sure it's a good company why did the stock go down well who knows sometimes who knows is is the right answer and um but uh people not just in the investment world but in general don't like going through life with the answer who knows so as you say fki says they they seek an explanation make sense of it well sometimes you can't sure uh I wrote a memo and I'll I'll say that a lot in the course of this interview because I've written for 35 years so I've written now on almost every topic in investing uh a memo called what does the market know my general conclusion is the market doesn't know anything okay um the market is not some genius with a high IQ the market is just the collection of the votes cast by all the people in it so by definition it's not any smarter sure uh if you get if you get uh you know a million people of average intelligence together their conclusion is not any smarter than average it's not like it accumulates to a greater total now having said that as you say sometimes price movements are meaningful sure so I think the answer is you can use it as a signal to think about things a signal to do some research you see a stock is way up or way down uh you know you might try to figure out if there's an obvious reason and try to figure out if the reaction of the stock price to the reason is excessive or insufficient maybe that will tell you there's something worth doing but I have to stress and I'll stress uh frequently in in this conversation with you that reaching these conclusions requires a very high Lev level of expertise and experience and knowledge that most people don't have so for the average person to look at a stock and it's up 20% this week and to say why is it up is 20% an overreaction or an under reaction MH will it go up more and should I buy the vast majority of people aren't equipped to make that decision right and and uh if they try to do so they're really deluding themselves Ed um also in that note you wrote about how there are no immutable rules in investing that can be relied upon to produce the same results always um yet investors do tend to make rules based on their experience mostly to mostly to protect themselves from repeating the same mistake you never let your largest position become x% of the portfolio or be greater next time when the XYZ are true buy the stock um rules aren't perfect but they can help an investor stay disciplined yes what are some of your roles that you like to share well I think I think you know there's an old saying that rules are made to be broken okay uh you can you can have general policies okay but I think it's important to be uh to be ready to break them as necessary uh um I mean a great example is uh some people adopt a rule that if a you buy a stock if it goes down x% you should sell it uh it's called the stop loss order sure so let's say you say if I buy a stock and it goes down 10% I sell it you have to think about what does that mean that means that if you if you sell every stock that goes down 10% you can never lose 20% or 30% or 40% but every once in a while you'll have a stock you'll buy it it'll go down 30% you'll sell it and then it'll go up 100% from there and you'll miss all of those too sure there is no rule uh that you can set to help you negotiate that it's not down 10 or down 20 there is no automatic rule that will uh keep you safe but not result in you missing opportunities um you know I mean I've always taken the approach that if you have a great suc success you should sell some we say take a little off the table sure in order to capture some of the gain so that if it turns out to be fleeting you won't give it all up mhm but if you if you buy something it's up 30% you sell some that means that if it goes up 60% that part you won't get a g get a ride on right so it's not that the raw that the rule is wrong or right the question is is it right for you right now the point is like I said about the stop loss order it it prevents great losses but it also uh causes you to miss some successes yeah you have to decide which is which is more important to you MH it based on your financial situation your personality those kinds of considerations so uh you know my idea of of uh taking a little off the table sure if you buy something it goes up 30% you sell some mhm then it goes up another 30% you sell some more another 30% M well you would have made more money if you held on mhm but on the other hand if it went up 30% and then back down you would have failed to tie up any of the profits which one of those two you can't do both right you can't you can't secure part of your profit and let it all ride right so every person has to work out for themselves uh what's right for them you can't do this stuff perfectly yeah what is the definition of good for you that's the question that's an interesting point um you recently had a conversation with your partner Bruce ksh and the chess grandm Maurice Ashley yes in that conversation Bruce talked about the importance of being at peace with yourself as an investor which I agree is hugely important can you tell us how one gets there and I think that ties into your point about what is right for you well it also ties into my college minor subject which was Asian studies okay Asian studies is a lot about contentment and uh being at peace uh acceptance and um there's no manual uh for for achieving these things but I mean if you want to uh change something about your personality and that's what we're talking about here it has to be intentional and you have to say how can I achieve greater Serenity um and importantly one thing is that you have to not be a perfectionist mhm um it's very hard to get investing just right you know I used to have a friend and we joked a lot in our relationship and we decided one day to catalog all the ways you can be wrong okay so number one is you buy and it goes down okay number two is you don't buy and it goes up number three is it goes up you buy and it goes up but then it goes down number two four is you buy you buy and it goes down and you sell and then it goes up okay there's you know number number five is it goes up and you sell and then it goes up more yeah there's an infinite number of ways to be wrong mhm there's only one way to be right which is you buy mhm it goes up yeah you sell and it doesn't go up anymore
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