저자: HowardMarks · 외국인
요약 보기
리스크는 가격 변동성이 아니라 나쁜 결과가 생길 확률(손실 가능성)이며 정량화가 어렵다. 자산은 소유(주식)와 대출(채권)로 구분되고, 좋은 자산이 곧 좋은 투자는 아니며 '나쁜 자산은 없고 나쁜 가격만 있다'는 입장. 1960년대 니프티50 사례처럼 비싸게 사면 우량주도 90% 손실 가능. 2009~2021년 초저금리 시기 이후 대부분 투자자가 금리 하락기만 경험했다는 점을 강조. 시장 전반에 대해서는 평가를 유보하고 밸류에이션 부담은 언급하되 단정하지 않음.
다듬은 글
the main misconception Andy is uh that people want to be able to take the word risk or the concept of risk and use it in a formula to do computations to figure out what are the best possible Alternatives and how did people do well in the past in a risk adjusted sense so the only number that's available for them to use as a proxy for risk is volatility or the standard deviation of prices or returns so they do I think that that's not what risk is risk is really if you think about it it's the possibility of having an undesirable result uh simply translated or I should say most simply translated the probability of losing money uh uh so that's risk the other thing is not risk on the other hand there is no number you can use for that because there's no place you can look to find out what the probability of a bad outcome is today or what it was 6 months ago when you made the investment so you you can be quantitative but not accurate or accurate but not quantitative you can't do both shifting gears a little bit what is your thinking about the high net worth Market both in terms of selling to it and in terms of investors looking for things to buy I think that uh look uh America is uh distinguished around the world by the magnitude of the high net worth Market by the number of people who have large amounts of uh of net worth um and the fact that more people are joining that group all the time so it's a great Market uh and um you know alternative investment firms like mine uh have the opportunity of selling into that market the people are historically underrepresented you know the institutions did it first in other words things like private Equity uh distressed debt private credit real estate uh anything along these lines um so it's a great opportunity uh I think that to really do our job right we have to pair it with education uh educating the consumer is not that easy at any level and um the singular goal should not be to sell products to that Market it should be to educate that market and then uh sell it the things that are right for it um and you know I I'm very interested in education and spend a lot of time on that myself but sort of increasing allocations for high net worth individuals could be appropriate given that they have a good understanding of what they're getting into right as long as you use the word could right uh could be appropriate it's not there's nothing that's right for everybody um people have to understand how to make decisions about how much return to pursue uh how much risk is involved and what's the right risk and return Target for them right you recently wrote a piece where you talked about the difference between ownership and debt and said that was really critical to understanding investing what do you mean by that and why do you say that well people talk about the many ways there are to invest stocks bonds real estate private Equity I've named a derivatives you mentioned well right derivatives currencies Commodities but really if you want to think in an organized fashion I think you should think about ownership and lending if you want to invest in a business let's say I'm your brother-in-law says I'm going to open a restaurant you and I'd like some support you have two choices you can say okay I like to be a partner I'll take half I'll put up half the money I get half the profits I don't know how you'll do but I'm going to buy you or you can say I'm not that confident that it'll be great I'll lend you some money but I want you to promise me that you'll pay me interest every six months and give me my money back at the end of the term and I get paid before you get paid so my my relationship with you is contractual and Senior so that's the difference between stocks and bonds a stock is a partial ownership of a business with no promise of anything other than your share of what all the owners get if there is something a bond is a promise of interest and repayment of principal in a priority basis if you think about it the two have nothing in common they're not oh yes well stocks and bonds they're a little different they're both Securities and here's the difference no there's nothing in common and for the most part ownership assets give portfolios their dynamism and their upside potential but at the cost of being uncertain and having significant downside potential lending assets are have a fixed promise which is Dependable but limited in its upside I remember once hearing you say how there's no Bad Assets only bad prices what do you mean by that well look I started working this business uh uh 55 years ago last month and at a bank and the banks invested in what we called the nifty50 the fif the stocks of the 50 best and fastest growing companies in America companies that were so great there was no price too high nothing could ever go wrong and if you bought the stocks the day I got there and held them tenaciously for five years you lost over 90% of your money why because they were too expensive it's not what you buy it's what you pay that determines a good investment now the longer your time Horizon the quality of the thing you buy matters more and the price you paid matters a little less but still uh people have to understand that good asset is not synonymous with good investment to make a good investment you have to be price conscious and and so uh you know that that's that's really what it comes down to it's not a matter of buying good things but buying things well and you have to understand that difference and it's more than grammatical all right that leads me to ask you what you think of the equity markets right now I know you're not necessarily a big Equity person but are we in a new nifty50 era with say the mag 7 what is your thinking about equities the easy answer is to say we are not necessarily correct you can't make any meaningful observation about assets unless you know them extremely well and I don't first of all oak tree doesn't operate in the stock market being alternative managers and secondly uh I am not Tech savy growth Savvy you know it's just not my thing so uh I don't want to mislead anybody these are these are prices which on the numbers look expensive we you know we gauge that by looking at the price earnings ratio they have high price earnings ratios but you know uh sometimes a a high-priced car is worth it and a low priced car isn't worth it so so you know uh low prices and and cheapness are not synonymous uh I think I think these are everybody thinks these are great companies they may be great companies they have high PE ratios they may be deserved so I I I don't I I don't think people should have a knee-jerk reaction on that subject and I try not to getting back to the paper you wrote recently you talked about a c change in interest rates and you mentioned the 2009 to 20 2021 era yeah can you explain that a little bit more well I start I start the Moc change December of 22 available to all your uh viewers uh Gratis on the Oak Tree website um and I say that in 1980 I had a bank loan outstanding on a personal basis and I got a slip in the mail saying the rate is now 22 and a quarter 40 years later in 20120 I was able to borrow at two and a quarter so interest rates went down for me by 2,000 basis points 20% percentage points anybody who came into this business after 1980 that's 44 years ago so it's almost everybody in the business has only pretty much lived through declining interest rates or ultra low interest rates and interest rates hit their their all-time low in the period you're talking about 09 to 21 which is the subject at the memo I think the FED funds rate which is the overnight rate that the FED charges Banks uh got down to zero at the beginning of 09 because they had to fight the global financial crisis stayed low pretty much until uh the end of 21 when they decided to raise it to fight inflation and in that period the FED funds rate was Zero most of the time and I think averaged about a half a percent
Comments 0