저자: EdYardeni · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 미국 증시는 6월 16일 저점(S&P500 3,666)이 올해 말까지의 바닥 역할을 할 가능성이 높고, 연준의 금리인상 기조는 더 이어지나 과거 볼커식 극단 긴축은 아닐 것이라는 전망. [미국 증시 및 헤지 해제 흐름] CPI가 예상보다 강하게 나오자 헤지 포지션 청산과 숏 커버가 겹치며 급반등이 나왔다고 분석. 이런 기술적 반전이 잦아 악재를 노린 공매도가 어려워질 것이라고 봄. [지수 전망] S&P500 상단은 4,305(8월 16일 수준)로 제시, 현재 악재 대부분은 주가에 반영된 상태라고 판단. [연준 금리 전망] 11월 회의 75bp 인상이 컨센서스이며, 12월 50bp 추가 인상 가능성과 내년 초 한 차례 더 인상 가능성을 언급. 연준 관계자들은 금리를 충분히 제한적인 수준(약 5%)으로 올린 뒤 그 수준을 유지하려는 의도를 분명히 하고 있다고 평가. [신흥국 펀드 흐름 (Cameron Brandt, EPFR)] 이머징 주식형 펀드는 헤드라인상 최근 약 7주 연속 유입이나, 중국 기관 자금에 의한 착시이며 글로벌 EM 펀드는 팬데믹 이후 가장 긴 유출 행진 중이라고 설명. 인도는 러시아 비중 재배분의 수혜를 받았으나 글로벌 EM 펀드의 확신이 부족해 자금 뒷받침이 약하다고 평가.
다듬은 글
all right so that's what we have let's get in some perspective now Cameron brand is director of research at epfr Global and Ed yarini is president at yaldini research gentlemen great to have both of you with us here thank you very much for your time uh a Cameroon you know you publish your data on Thursdays right uh the uh the the data for the prior week uh em equities Equity Funds have been seeing outflows I think we saw outflows the last number we have is for eight straight weeks we've seen outflows what happened uh for the as part of the latest data em funds well actually that's uh the num that isn't quite the number we've actually seen uh I think getting on for seven weeks of inflows uh at the headline level uh but that's a deceptive number it's being it's sort of staying in positive territory largely because of uh institutional flows to China Equity Funds uh however the I would say the opposite is also true that we're definitely not seeing that sort of uh levels of angst and the risk reduction in the Emerging Markets Equity space that we're seeing in some of the other asset box groups just uh sorry you know the number the EM Equity Funds uh the the number I have is uh I mean I'm talking about Equity Funds not overall we we've had strong outflows right I mean this is uh uh are you talking about in is this dedicated to India no no I'm talking about the Emerging Market Equity universe and bulk of that outflow has come from not Regional funds but gem funds and it's been the longest streak of outflow since pandemic I mean March or April of 2020 yeah that's what I was referencing yes the Diversified Global Emerging Markets funds have been on a rough losing streak and that isn't good for India because uh India has actually benefited uh if that's the right word at this point uh to a fairly big degree from The Scrambled reallocation of Russian exposure that happened uh towards the end of the first quarter um so India's stock with global Emerging Markets funds is is high uh unfortunately drivable energy markets funds don't have money to back up that conviction at the moment okay well Ed yardney is also with us to give us his view Ed morning and thanks for joining us on the channel it's a given that now there are more retics coming from the U.S uh after the reading into the September fed minutes as well as the inflation print but how much of that you think is in the price already and how did you read into the sharp pullback that we saw overnight in the U.S yeah I think to a large extent a lot of the bad news is in the market as you've said we had several days where the market was down and I think during those days a lot of portfolio managers may very well have hedged their positions fearing that the CPI might be surprisingly bad again you know we've had a few times when that happened this year and the market took a big dive and stayed down this time around I think what happened is that so much hedging had occurred that when the CPI did in fact come out stronger than expected I have more inflation than expected that a lot of those Hedges were covered because they worked quite well uh and then of course some of the people who were actually outright short without any hedge had to cover so it was a heck of a reversal day today and I think it's going to make it harder for anyone to short this Market uh anticipating bad news because it is so prone to these uh Technical reversals and so I think we I really think that the June 16th low which was 366 is turning out to be sort of uh roughly the the bottom of this trading range that I see through the end of the year and I think the upper end of the trading range is 4305 on the S P 500 which is where we were on August 16th uh hi Missy oddney well we've got that and good to hear that uh June 2022 lows could hold out in your opinion so that's pretty good news uh I want a couple of data points over from you post this red hot CPI inflation number that we've got do you believe that could be 275 basis point uh rate hikes uh you know in the upcoming meets uh early I think you were factoring in around 125 basis points so what's your take on that and also I recall we were talking about the hawkish and the dovish pivot well no science of the dubish one from the FED yet right no not really uh that's what's really been quite extraordinary is there's the committee just seems completely United uh seems like group think uh not even one uh significant dissenter uh from uh with the crowd uh of fomc folks are saying I think it's pretty well anticipated I think it's consensus that 75 basis points is what the fed's going to do at the early November meeting and that there might be another 50 basis points at the December meeting and there might be one more hike early next year but I think the market is starting to sense that we're getting closer to the FED accomplishing what it wanted to accomplish which is to get the FED funds rate closer to five percent which they view as restrictive and then keeping it there I think fed officials were somewhat concerned a few weeks back when the market seemed to believe that the FED would be lowering interest rates next year and they wanted to make sure that that isn't the message they were sending so I think the message that they've made quite clear is they intend to have a few more rate hikes get it too restrictive and keep it there I don't think it's going to be the kind of tightening that we saw with Paul volcker where interest rates were just allowed to go to whatever level it took to cause the recession and bring inflation down I don't think they're they're going to go that route okay well on that note we'll thank both of you for joining in I think the market is also looking at it like that that's Ed yardney of yardney reset saying that the June 16th low of the S P 500 could hold as a base for the rest of the year and the market is pretty much priced in a lot of the bad news with respect to inflation as well as rate hikes let's slip into a quick break but when we come back from the break our entire research team will be with us to help us talk about the top 10 stocks that are in Focus this morning stay tuned foreign
Comments 0