저자: MarkMobius · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 미국 연준의 금리 인상이 계속되어 S&P500 지지선이 깨지면 하락이 심화될 수 있으나, 인도 시장은 상대적으로 강세이며 중국보다 인도 비중을 늘려야 한다는 견해. 미국 시장: 연준은 물가(CPI 약 8%)보다 높은 금리를 목표로 하므로 금리가 9%까지 오를 수 있다고 봄. S&P500은 현재 지지선 부근이며, 이를 하향 이탈하면 추가 하락("피바다")이 나타날 것으로 전망. 인도 시장: 인도 시장은 추세와 달리 강세를 보이며 정부 정책의 효과가 반영되고 있다고 평가. 3년간 시장을 주도하던 기술주는 밀리고 은행주가 강세로 전환. 소프트웨어(Persistent Systems 등)와 인프라 관련주(Apollo 계열 등)를 주목하며 향후 좋은 성과를 낼 것으로 봄. 비중 변화: 인도는 중국에서 제조업을 가져오는 추세이며, 정부의 'Gati Shakti' 행정 속도 정책과 애플의 인도 생산 이전이 긍정적 신호. 대만이 기존 최대 비중이었으나 아직 인도가 대만을 추월하지는 않았고, 포트폴리오를 천천히 조정하며 대만을 줄이고 인도 등 다른 국가를 늘리는 방향을 고려. 중국: 시진핑이 재선되면 정책이 빠르게 바뀌지 않을 것으로 봄. 중국은 외국인 자금 유치를 원하지만 투자자들이 중국에서 데었기 때문에 회복이 어렵다고 평가. 인도는 상대적으로 유리한 위치이나, 시장 규모가 작고 유동성이 낮은 것이 한계. 인도 채권지수 편입 시 채권·주식 자금 유입 가능성. 유럽 신용 이슈: 크레디트스위스 등 유럽 대형은행 문제가 부각되며 신흥국에 대한 재평가가 일어날 수 있고, 투자자들이 유럽·미국에서 분산투자할 계기가 될 수 있다고 봄.
다듬은 글
And as promised, let's focus on the markets and get you some expert opinion.
Regarding the US, I've been saying for quite some time now the Fed is going to continue raising rates and that of course is putting a damper on the market. People must remember that the playbook for central banks around the world, particularly the Fed, is that they want to raise interest rates above the inflation rate.
Now the inflation rate that they use is the CPI, the consumer price index, which now stands at about 8%. That means interest rates have to go to 9%, of course, if the CPI stays at this level. So I think more is in store for the markets, and as you know, for the S&P 500 we're right at the support level. If it breaks below this support level, then we're going to see more blood on the streets.
The interesting thing is that India is really bucking this trend. It's amazing what the Indian market has done, and it speaks very well for the policies that the government has pursued. The general buoyancy of the Indian market is very good. Are you buying now in India? Because we have seen a clear shift. IT, which was leading the rally for three years, has taken a big backseat while banks have started to outperform.
Well, we're looking at both software, Persistent Systems for example, and infrastructure-related stocks like Apollo, Apollo 2. These are the kind of stocks we're looking at. We think those are the stocks that will perform very well going forward.
Hi Mr. Mobius, you know in the past you've been bullish on both those two names, but in terms of approaching equities globally, I think Taiwan was one of the highest allocations, then India and then China. How have things changed for India? Have you increased weightage in the last few months? If you could give a broad number, and is India now top of the pack?
Well, I think India is really beginning to take more and more manufacturing share from China, and I think the government policy, the so-called Gati Shakti policy, speeding up the bureaucracy, is going to be very, very good for India. You're going to see more and more companies moving manufacturing to India, and as you know, Apple has moved its latest iPhone manufacturing to India as well. So these are very good signs going forward. We're going to be on the lookout for companies that manufacture this kind of equipment, and also companies that are going to contribute more and more on the software side.
India has increased, though, Mr. Mobius, in the last few months, since things are looking up on the policy front and the economy has recovered quite a bit. Have you increased weightage to India, and what's the pecking order now? Taiwan used to be number one in terms of exposure. Has India overtaken Taiwan now?
No, not yet. We of course continue to look at India for possibilities of additions. But as you know, in our portfolios we move very, very slowly. When we have a stock that we think is going to be good, we hang on to it, and that's the reason why, for example, the stocks we have in India we haven't sold; we continue to hold them. The same thing is true in Taiwan, although in Taiwan the weighting has been pretty high. So we want to reduce that by either decreasing Taiwan or increasing other countries like India.
Mark, you had given us this thesis and we explored it in some detail: emerging markets generally doing very well, and foreign outflows out of India because of that, not country-specific, and how some global funds were launching mandates, ex-China, etc. Are you still seeing that? That is one. And second, later this month, in the middle of the month, we have the big party conference in China. Many are expecting that once that is done, they will dramatically change their policies in terms of the zero-COVID attitude toward businesses, the crackdown there, etc. So there will be a big shift after that. Would you agree with that?
Go on... No, I don't think the policy mandates in China will change very quickly, particularly if she is re-elected and becomes the paramount leader again. So I don't think there's going to be a big shift. However, the Chinese are well aware that they need more dollars flowing into the economy. They need more funds to support the economy, so they will do their best to attract foreign investors, but within reason. The problem for them is the reluctance of many investors to go back into China. We've been in client meetings where we say, well, we want to talk about emerging markets, and the clients say, we don't want to talk about China, talk about anything else except China. So a lot of people have been burned in China, which means that India is in a pretty good position.
Of course, the problem with India is that up to now they've been rather restrictive, and the market is rather small and less liquid. But the interesting thing is that if India is added to the various emerging market bond indices, that could mean more and more flows into the Indian bond market, and of course that could be accompanied by more flows into the equity market as well.
Okay Mark, the other issue dominating headlines, or at least financial headlines, is what's happening in Europe with credit swaps, and even with DB perhaps. Do you reckon this could snowball into another Lehman, or do you think it's much smaller?
That's quite a surprise, and the fact that you have a bank like Credit Suisse in the news regarding that. But what it does is it begins to have people start thinking about emerging markets, and thinking, wait a minute, emerging markets have been considered very risky and so forth, but how about these big banks in Europe and America? What's the situation there? So in some ways it's quite favorable for emerging markets and for India, where people begin to think maybe we should diversify a little bit away from Europe and away from the US.
All right, with that, a very quick break. Up next we'll talk about what's buzzing in the commodity space. Joining in will be Manisha Gupta.
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