저자: JJ · 외국인
요약 보기
이 영상은 가치투자자 Li Lu가 2022년 4분기 13F에서 알파벳(구글)을 추가 매수한 점을 분석한다. 핵심 주장: Li Lu는 찰리 멍거가 자금을 맡긴 투자자로, 13F상 구글 비중을 늘렸다. 분석자는 그 이유와 리스크를 살펴본다. 출처 및 포트폴리오: 미국 보유 종목은 마이크론(약 29~30%), 뱅크오브아메리카(약 25%), 버크셔 해서웨이 B, 알파벳(GOOG·GOOGL 각 약 12~14%), 애플 등이다. 2022년 4분기 알파벳을 168% 추가 매수했고, 2022년 2분기에는 77% 늘리면서 GOOGL을 처음 편입했다. 메타는 2022년 2분기 전량 매도했다. 매매 이력: 2021년 3분기 버크셔를 처음 매수했고, 2020년 2분기부터 구글을 사 모으기 시작했다. 2020년에는 알리바바를 전량 매도했다. 중국 보유: 중국 우정저축은행(Postal Savings Bank of China) 비중이 약 31.69%로 보고되며 평가액은 약 8.94억 달러다. BYD 보유 여부는 확인되지 않았다. 가격 흐름: 알파벳은 2021년 말 이후 하락해 최근 1년간 약 20~25% 내렸다. 분석자는 이를 Li Lu가 하락을 이용한 매수로 본다. 리스크: 분석자는 ChatGPT 등 생성형 AI가 구글 검색 광고(매출의 약 80%)를 잠식할 위험을 가장 큰 리스크로 꼽는다. 반면 딥마인드 등으로 대응할 가능성도 언급했다. 결론: 분석자는 Li Lu의 대형주 매수 이유와 구글의 AI 대응력에 대해 의견을 구하며 마무리한다.
다듬은 글
hi JJ here again with the outer value today I'm going to talk about legendary value investor Lee Lou and how he's been buying more Google Shares more alphabet shares in the last filing that we can see the 13f that's in the US he buys internationally too but we can see that he's been buying more Google Shares in that last quarter maybe we can discover why he's doing that and maybe some of the positives and some of the risks in him doing that at this time so let's get into it so who is Lee Lou he's not really a famous outside value investing circles value investors would probably know who he is he's the only investor that Charlie Munger has trusted to invest his own money and he went to Columbia business school and he's had high praise from some of the best investors of all time here's a little bit of a profile on Lee Lewis and background this is from the website Guru Focus which is a financial service that I use I'm going to put a referral Link in the description if you want to do that we both benefit somewhat from if you use that link if you end up using that server us so the profile says born and raised in China lilu attended Columbia University where he received three degrees simultaneously and I think he's one of the only people to ever have done that which is pretty amazing three degrees simultaneously and he founded Himalaya capital a billion dollar investment firm that primarily focuses on long-term investment opportunities in Asia and the US so that's I think that's one of the reasons that Charlie manga invests with him because he grew up in China but he also has lived in the US as educated in the U.S so he knows both these two largest economies very well lilu currently serves as a member of the Board of Trustees of Columbia University and a member of the Board of Trustees of California Institute of Technology that's Caltech is also a member of the committee of 100 the Council of foreign relations and the Aspen Institute so it goes on so he's very highly respected well regarded as an investor and as a human being he's got a very interesting background before that he was involved in the this student protests in China back in the 80s and Tiananmen Square protest and that he ended up being a refugee a migrant to the U.S and then went to Columbia business school after that and got interested in Warren Buffett's teachings so a bit about his investment of philosophy again from Guru focus it says lilo's affirm Embraces the value investment principles of Ben Graham Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger it primarily focuses on publicly traded companies in Asia with an emphasis on China The Firm aims to achieve Superior returns by being long-term owners of high quality companies and a substantial economic moat great growth potential and are run by trustworthy people so these are the things that Charlie Munger and Warren Buffett like too I've seen them say in an interview before that he was kind of humbled by the fact that he's got to know Charlie manga and Charlie Munger trusts him with to invest his money early Beginnings with Columbia business school and Refugee from China to be this investor with a billion dollar multi-billion dollar investment fund so let's take a look at lilo's Investment Portfolio well this is the U.S part of it anyway this is from the website data Roma which lists super investors the activity and holdings of super investors it's only the US investment so we can only see here uh lee lose U.S Investments I've got another source that we can see another holding from China later so stick around for that but we have the top one that says 29 nearly 30 of the portfolio is Micron Technology then Bank of America Corp Berkshire Hathaway B shares alphabet g-o-o-g ticket and alphabet again g-o-o-g-l and Apple so that's 30 for micron Bank of America's 25 so big Holdings but that's not as I said that's not all of us Holdings Google both of the Googles is 14 and nearly 12 so fairly substantial and then we see the activity in the last quarter of 2022 he added 168 percent added to the holding so he's that's the only activity that he had in that period so that's pretty interesting that he loaded up on Google or added to Google at that time so on the site we can also see his buying and selling activity going back well years and we can see that where he added to Google on that last quarter and then he didn't do anything in the US and Q3 but in Q2 he added to Google again it upped it by 77 and he bought a g-o-o-g-l that ticket for the first time in Q2 2022 and he sold 100 of meta he had been loading up on meta and when the I think when the news came out about investing a lot in the metaverse he decided to get out at that point I guess he doesn't see a future for Meta Even though they're still making a lot of money I guess he didn't like what was happening there so he sold we can see from his activity that he did by meta in the quarters before that in Q4 2021 he added to meta and Bank of America and Sol pendola which I still own and it's been doing pretty well for me actually interested one day to know why he's sold I kind of like what the company's doing especially about getting into the US so in Q3 2021 he bought Berkshire Hathaway for the first time that's at a time when I think that a Berkshire himself was buying back shares so uh Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger obviously thought it was pretty cheap at that time and they've been buying back throughout since then really so here we can see 2020 going back to 2020 we can see in the fourth quarter of 2020 he was buying Apple shares and buying penduldo at that time which he later sold remember 2020 was that time back in in March 2020 was that kind of Crash everybody thought the world was ending the economy was crashing and it didn't look good but as we know what happened then it kind of rocketed or Textures in particular rocketed as the lockdowns happened it's been a crazy three years really hasn't it but Q3 2020 he was loading up on meta shares at that time meta platforms and Micron Technology which is a stock that I own as well he added fifteen sixteen percent there are a lot of value investors who own Micron and I've made videos about that before it's one of the most popular shares for Value investors really and Q2 2020 he was buying meta platforms and Google again at that time g-o-o-g the ticket for the first time and he sold 100 out of Alibaba again an interesting move and Charlie Munger bought after that so they're kind of opposing views on that one and q1 2020 he was buying Micron Bank of America and Alibaba so he started buying Google it looks like in Q2 2020 and it's been adding to them ever since becoming quite big in his Holdings and still adding to them so at this point is probably a good time to look at the alphabet stock graph we can see going back to late 2021 it's been going down since then so he's been buying as it's been going down it's down 20 nearly 25 in the last year so he's been taking advantage of that and still taking advantage of that alphabet to lose a quarter of it value is taking advantage of that question is is will it be a good move for the long term or will it not be I've made some videos about what I what I see is the risks perhaps the first the biggest risk that Google's had for two decades in that's chat GPT coming out so it'll be interesting to see iFly Lou if that in this last quarter in particular puts him off or whether he thinks Google and say deepmind is going to be how to keep Pace I just I wonder how much he knows about Ai and does he see that open Ai and Microsoft's involvement as a threat to Google search I've talked about that in other videos and I'll put a link to that at the end of this video because I personally think it could be a significant threat to Google's core business model they could get into it but will it cannibalize their own search advertising which is let's face it nearly 80 percent of their revenue do they really want to cannibalize their own Core Business which has been one of the best business models of all time Google I think it's one of the widest most of a company ever in their search if you're watching on YouTube or Rumble and you're getting value out of this episode so far do hit that like button to help spread its more people and give me that little dopamine hit that we all love so much from people like our stuff thanks here we have lilu's portfolio Himalaya capital from ticket terminal so this shows us a little bit more it shows the ones that we've already mentioned from the US but it actually shows postal Savings Bank of China which seems like Luke has a a big stake says 31.69 of the obvious portfolio he may have other shares I know he's bought byd the electric car company and Battery company in the in China Berkshire Hathaway owned some of it as well so I'm not sure if he still owns it or not I haven't seen every any evidence that he's sold shares in it but I don't know he possibly still owns it he's talked about it and interviews people have asked him about Tesla and he said his his monies on byd as a better bet for electric cars and batteries so I assume that still owns it but we just don't know I don't know do you know let me know and so postal Savings Bank which is interesting I don't know anything about it but he's taken a big stake so the reported value of the shares is 894 million dollars which is significant so he must like that a lot it's interesting that he's actually Mega caps and large caps I don't know about postal Savings Bank I have to look at the market cap of that but he has bought these huge U.S companies at this time when the market went down it's interesting that he's not buying smaller cat but he does have a lot of money to invest maybe that's got something to do with it he's always been a value investor looking for a well deep value yes sometimes but it's interestingly he's going for these large cap US Stocks he obviously thinks there's a lot to run in them and it's a good time to buy we saw that Google went down a lot of the tech U.S tech shares have been down over the last year or two so he's taken advantage of that so what do you think of lilu buying Google keeping on buying Google at this time do you think it's the kind of Best Buy that it can make as far as large caps or Mega caps what do you think of his moves here why do you think he might be doing it and do you see a thread from from AI even though Google is involved in AI do you see a threat to their their Core Business their core search from things like chat GPT I'd be really interested to know let me know in the comments or let me know on Twitter at the art of value if you've got this far in the episode if you're watching on YouTube or rumble or Spotify or audio on your favorite podcast app perhaps consider subscribing if you're not already and I'll see you next time thanks for watching or listening
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