저자: KenFisher · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 경기침체가 온다 해도 경미하거나 없을 가능성이 크며, 침체 기대가 이미 최고조라 기업들이 선제 대응하면서 충격이 완화된다. 일본식 잃어버린 10년은 미국에 재현되기 어렵다. 일본은 인구 구조 문제, 낮은 기업가정신, 과도한 자산 밸류에이션이 겹쳤지만 미국은 이런 조건이 없다. 디플레이션은 미국에서 거의 일어나지 않는다. 정치적 압력과 중앙은행이 통화량을 늘려 약 2% 인플레이션을 목표로 하며, 현재는 실제 하락이 아닌 디스인플레이션(인플레이션 둔화) 국면이다. 스태그플레이션도 규제·문화적 제약으로 혁신과 성장이 장기간 멈추는 상황이 필요한데, 벤처캐피털이 풍부한 환경에서는 가능성이 낮다. 실적 전망: 기업 경영진은 기대치를 낮춰 놓고 이후 상회하는 패턴을 반복하며, 대체로 70~85%의 경우 예상을 웃돈다. 미디어가 실적 둔화를 강조해도 실제 발표에서는 기대를 넘는 경우가 많을 것으로 본다. 경기침체 예측: 현재 침체 기대가 역사상 가장 널리 예상되는 상황이다. 전통적 선행지표(장단기 금리차 역전, 선행지수 등)는 누구나 쉽게 접근하면서 힘을 잃었고, 서비스업 비중이 커져 제조업 중심 지표의 설명력도 떨어졌다. 2022년 상반기 GDP 마이너스 이후에도 침체 공포가 이어졌는데, 기업들이 미리 해고와 채용 동결 등으로 대응했다. 핵심 논리: 기대(anticipation)가 곧 완화(mitigation)다. 침체는 과거 호황기에 쌓인 과잉을 정리하는 과정인데, 침체를 미리 예상하면 기업들이 선제적으로 구조조정을 해 침체 자체가 사라지거나 약해진다. 리스크: 침체가 발생한다면 역사상 가장 길게 예상된 침체가 될 수 있다는 점은 인정한다. 특정 자산(삼성전자, 엔비디아, 금, 비트코인 등)에 대한 언급은 없다.
다듬은 글
if we have a recession ahead which we may it will be the most widely anticipated and longest anticipated recession in modern history the people are always asking questions and so I thought I'd take a moment to answer a few of them my age without my glasses on I can't see beans from bananas so you have to put them on these big cards here begin to feel like I'm Johnny Carson or something but let me just rattle through a couple of questions a couple fast answers if Japan can have a lost decade why can't we well we could but we'd have to have the same kind of circumstances that they had and we don't so in the period That's ahead for the next decade or so we won't uh the fact is their world suffered demographic problems that the rest of the world doesn't so much have I've got a very population skewed away from Prime working age they aren't as entrepreneurial as the American economy by far or as Innovative and from that the fact is we just naturally grow better than did they and then we don't have the hugely overwhelming negative uh excessive valuations that they had as they started that period what about deflation or stagflation please put a light on it well the fact of the matter is we don't much really do deflation in our world the fact is there is some ongoing political pressure to keep the quantity of money growing enough that you have no deflation deflation being defined as over time the Consumer Price Index actually going down the Central Bank in America Federal Reserve and most central banks aren't even looking for that they're not thinking about they're not wanting that they're wanting something that looks like maybe two percent a year inflation two percent of your inflation in the long term builds up but it is a little bit of inflation that's what they want not actual deflation they want from here where we are disinflation to get them down to that low level disinflation meaning inflation falling down to that level not actually going to Absolute falling prices of yesteryear on stagflation the one has really nothing much to do with the other stagflation doesn't really have much to do with deflation stagflation is where you have inflation and a long period where we can't grow again this means mostly that something like regulations or other cultural restrictions stop the Innovative process for being able to create growth and therefore that stagnant economy over some long period of time that also is very unlikely to happen in a world where venture capital is abundant companies are started all the time trying to do the next crazy new thing and nine out of 10 of them fail but one out of ten of them works and that creates all kind of growth it seems like media's new obsession or next shoe to drop is falling earnings wondering your thought on earnings and if you perceive them to be rolling over well if you think we've got a recession they're rolling over if you don't think we've got a recession they're not um my view is it's at worst a mild recession ahead maybe no recession at all I will say to you that what corporate management tends to do overwhelmingly it's a Well understood game that for a well-understood game not everybody seems to understand they regularly talk down expectations for how they'll do ahead so that when they actually report results they can exceed expectations and can brag about exceeding expectations that's what you should expect you should expect them to talk down earnings media to say see look at what's going on with earnings and then watch the earnings exceed expectations I'm going to tell you that normally they're exceeding expectations 70 to 85 percent of the time in good times and bad and I expect that'll happen in the period ahead do you think this will be a light recession because of the majority of companies are expecting a recession and have started to pair it seems like the worst recessions are the ones we do not see coming let me just say that in my lifetime 50 years as a professional investor Plus it has always been true that we don't see recessions coming recessions have always been a surprise if we have a recession ahead which we may it will be the most widely anticipated and longest anticipated recession in modern history in the history where we can actually measure things in those ways with some accuracy the fact is as I've said in my newer post column anticipation is mitigation when CEOs and people see risk ahead they get themselves ready they try to prepare for the tougher times they fear so that process mitigates normally a recession is all about correcting the excesses of the past from ones that were built during the prior Bowl market and economic expansion and the recession cleans those out when we have this rare occurrence where a recession is expected businesses start doing that you've got a huge number of layoffs that have already occurred you've got all kinds of companies that have Frozen employment meanwhile the economy keeps growing slowly and the signals are mixed I will tell you that all of the traditional tells that always used to work for predicting recession they all say we're going to have recession the fact of the matter is I don't think most of them apply today the way they once did because today everybody can see them on their iPhone the fact is when I was young you wanted to see what the leading economic index said you had to go dig out data in a library or someplace like that if you wanted to know about pmis almost no one did purchasing manager indexes things like the yield curve inversion but when I was young nobody understood the yield curve inversion was a indicator of recession ahead now everybody does and I believe for reasons I've explained many times many places that it's lost its power completely but you take the leading economic index which used to be very powerful when I was young and I was on record saying that I love it doesn't have the power you'd think it has because it's about the manufacturing side not the services side and the services side today is twice the size of the manufacturing side it doesn't tell you anything I think we'll have a mild recession if we have a recession at all because anticipation is mitigation we had two quarters the first two quarters of 2022 that were negative in GDP I'll be it only this much and much of it for technical reasons and starting back then everyone was afraid we were going into recession right away and businesses started moving toward preparing then as the year went on the session expectations have gone now to all-time highs and because recession expectations are at all-time highs measured various ways everybody Under the Sun is preparing preparation is mitigation anticipation is mitigation preparation is really blessed because it cleans out the problems that normally you clean out inside the recession not beforehand making the recession either go away or be more mild than it would be otherwise thank you very much for listening to me ]
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