저자: Investology · 외국인
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the financial markets uh will move according to what central banks will do to a large extent but also they will move according to fundamentals in the world I think if I look at the whole world in terms of economic activity we have not recovered to the peak that occurred in 2018 2019. we had the recovery moves but let's say if you look at Travel statistics international travel statistics in most countries we're still down very substantially and if you look at valuations the valuations are still very high they have come down somewhat I have to point this out because as you know the SNT is down 22 to 23 this year and the NASDAQ is down over 30 percent and the European markets if we measure them in US Dollars they're all down around 30 35 percent and so forth and Emerging Markets they have been in Bear markets for several years now now we also have to look at the individual sectors in some sectors that perform better than others but basically what has happened is liquidity in the world Global money supply has been contracting is still at a very high level but it's been contracting and when this happens asset prices tend to go down and we have this tightening mode in the world among central banks uh the central banks were sleeping essentially for 12 years between 2009 and 2021 and even in 21 a year ago they all said oh inflation is transitory now we may have to look at exactly did did they do it by let's say in did they do it intentionally or were they so dumb you know this is two different things because if you look at the action of politicians today frequently you ask yourself do these characters actually want to destroy the economy or are they simply so ignorant that they take measures that are negative for the economy this is particularly true in Europe then there is a question of corporate earnings in some emerging economies corporate earnings have come down in some sectors they have come down but say for the s p the estimates by our brilliant analysts are still up for the year and they're up for 2023.
so uh I asked myself from my observations about economic activity around the world which is down there's no question about this uh can the s p earnings still be up this year and next year when in fact this year the earnings have already started to decline but the analysts haven't adjusted yet and when I see the results of disappointing earnings say in the case of nividia or in the case of FedEx and stocks tumble to new lows then I think that this will be a factor that will wait on the markets going forward when the earnings disappoint and what is not considered sufficiently is the demand destructions the destruction that is taking place a from falling asset prices you know the last few years we had this money illusion everybody got richer who owned real estate who owned collectibles art and stocks bonds and so forth because everything was going up now everything is going down and in concert some assets are going down more than others but it's unusual I've been through so many bear markets starting with 1970 to 70 the end of the 69 70 bear Market 73.74.
81.82 and suppose normally when markets went down bonds rallied treasury bonds rally not necessarily junk bonds but treasury bonds rallied that was also the case in the Great Depression but this year you look at the TLT this is the long-term treasury ETF the symbol is TLT it's down from 18 months ago from 170 to now below 100.
in Austria the long-term bond is down more than 50 percent so there was no place to hide for asset holders and whereas A very wise hedge fund manager actually runs the large side from in the world at the end of 2021 wrote cash is trash now he's saying she's still at this tune so you understand this has been a brutal decline in asset prices which will impact the consumption of many people because many people lived from asset price increases number two someone out of Germany just sent me a video an hour ago and it shows uh an analyst he took a basket of goods in the supermarkets from butter cheese and so forth all kinds of items and soap and whatever the household needs for the daily life all together the price over one year had gone up by 39 percent I don't know any wages that go up by 39 percent and the pensions don't go up by 39 and so forth and so on and so the consumption is impaired is is shrinking because people don't have the money look I live in the north of Thailand in Chiang Mai Thailand is a famous for the tourism among young people and elderly people but it is also famous as a retirement country it's consistently voted as one of the most Pleasant countries to retire and to live because the price level is a reasonable and so my friend he owns a restaurant the restaurant is a French restaurant that is bistro style it appeals to everyone it's simple outside you can smoke and inside there's no smoking and suppose I can observe that the pensioners starting around the 25th of the months frequent that restaurant much less than when they get the pension they get the pensions usually around the fifths to tenths of the months from Germany Switzerland and so forth and so on so then they have some purchasing power but not the same as before because their cost of living has also gone up but the pensions from Germany Switzerland and so forth in Switzerland they haven't gone up I don't live from my pension because I'm a working man but uh I I can tell you you can ask your viewers they can all check with their parents who are pensioners or so all of them suffer at the moment all of them and so I think the corporate earnings will begin to disappoint massively and how do we get out of it well as you said before there is no easy answer because the two things essentially the authorities can do well there are many things they can do and I it will give you a solution uh one of the things they can do is they could stop increasing interest rates as some people are calling for including the UN that is the best stroke I ever heard that the UN is calling for central banks to stop increasing interest rate what is funny about this is it coincides with the UN having concluded kind of a joint venture with the world's economic forum as if the world economic Forum was ever interested in the faith and in the prosperity of the small guy in the world I said it's a complete joke but anyway that they can do they can stop increasing interest rates say in the Western World inflation is running at say between seven and fifteen percent depending that on the household and depending on how many children you have and on your eating habits and so forth and so on but interest rates are still say in the U.S at three percent and in Europe the next to zero in Switzerland they're at zero uh if they don't increase interest rates then inflation may slow down the temporary you know for six months or one year but it will then go up again and so you'll get more and more inflation and less and less purchasing power and this is the problem of inflation it erodes the purchasing power of Ordinary People it enriches rich people and you will get a mess but maybe later on or they keep on increasing interest rates until inflation really slows down but they have to maintain interest rates at a fairly high level for a while and then there will be pain especially given the fact we have an entire generation of people they grew up and starting and started working and investing and buying a home in an environment of artificially low interest rates since 2009 interest rates in the western world have been far below of what they should have been but this is uh this has happened because vulqueness the Vogue culture has also invaded economics and for a while a great fashion was to talk about the modern monetary Theory and the great deal of academics they sort of endorsed this nonsense I call it because throughout history governments have gone past when their deaths became overly burdensome so to claim that the government can borrow endless money is of course total nonsense but this was endorsed and the worst part of it the investment Community the fund manager the strategist the analysts they all uploaded because these people in the financial sector including myself but the people in the financial sector they benefit from rising asset prices their fees go up the performance fees go up so they all upload they upload idiots who are sitting in central banks who do these things and at the end when it's proven that these idiots in central banks these morons are completely wrong they give them a Nobel prize in economics like today Mr Ben bertucky this is the best joke I've heard in a long
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