저자: JimRogers · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 큰 랠리 이후 장기 약세장 진입 가능성을 경계하되, 실물자산(원자재·은·설탕 등)에 관심을 두라는 주장. 대규모 비관론이 극단에 이르면 반전 계기가 생기고 거대 랠리가 나올 수 있으나, 그것은 장기 강세장 말미나 약세장 초입에 흔히 나타나는 마지막 랠리일 가능성이 크다고 봄. 1999~2000년 나스닥 급등 후 폭락 사례를 들어, 낙관이 지배하는 'new economy' 같은 분위기가 나오면 경계해야 한다고 강조. 중앙은행이 다시 돈을 찍으면 인플레이션이 돌아오고, 채권은 수십 년간 강세장이 어려우며 부동산과 일부 주식도 문제가 있다고 봄. 설탕(고점 대비 약 70% 하락)과 은(고점 대비 약 70% 하락)은 버블이 아니라 싼 실물자산으로 제시. 원자재·실물자산은 통화 증발 시 상승한다고 언급. 개별 종목으로는 핫한 대형 성장주(예: 아마존 등)가 한동안 급등할 수 있으나 결국 실물자산 강세장이 온다고 봄. 구체적 목표가·기간 수치는 없음. 본인은 최근 우즈베키스탄 투자를 시작했다고 밝힘(국가 경제 개혁 기대, 종목 수 적음). 투자 조언: 아는 분야에만 투자하라, 소수 투자로 성공하라는 원칙 제시. 자녀에게는 자신의 열정을 찾아 따르라고 조언. 미국 경기침체(역사상 최악)를 제목에서 예고하지만 본문에서 구체적 시점 예측은 제한적.
다듬은 글
will have another gigantic rally but that would probably be the last one if we invest in what you know about them if you want to be successful stay with just what you uh add that you know there's been a lot of pessimism around as you well know uh and in my experience when there's huge amounts of pessimism usually something happens to break the pessimism we we've had it the last couple of weeks because people the Federal Reserve has talked about well maybe we're not so not going to be so tough or whatever it is all right this is not a projection but suppose there's peace and you often happens to break the pessimism you have a big wave of optimism and a gigantic rally gigantic rallies have often happened at the end of bull markets or the beginning of bear markets so we may well have another gigantic rally but that would probably be the last one if you ask me usually at the end of a long bull market when you have a gigantic rally at the end it's usually the end I mean if you can remember NASDAQ at the end of 1999 and 2000 I mean it's skyrocketed somebody doubled in six months or something uh just as we were about to collapse this is the way markets work fortunately or unfortunately so I I just want to point out when you have a lot of pessimism start thinking about going to the other side for what the end of the 1999-2000 with the beginning of that bear Market it skyrocketed there at the end after a long secular bull market and then it would everybody thought happy days are here again this is going to go on forever an interesting sideline in 1999 I think that was exact year the Wall Street Journal The Wall Street Journal I mean not some neighborhood newspapers started using with capital letters that words the expression the new economy capital n capital E this is the way they The Wall Street Journal referred to the world it was the new but eventually they stopped capitalizing new economy but that's how things get in long-ball markets that's how Wild they get and that last gasp as we were discussing before can be wildly exciting if you're on the right well back to what I said before when the central banks panic and start printing money again inflation comes back and the you know bonds are certainly in a bubble they're not going to be in a bull market for decades property is going to have problems as we've discussed many stocks have been a bubble the only thing that's still cheap are real assets and if they print money when they print money it leads to some things going higher but those are usually silver wheat you know real assets the price of sugar is down 70 percent from its all-time high that's not a bubble the price of silver is down 70 percent from its all-time high those are not bubble kinds only thing that is cheap that I know of I mean yes there's property some places yes blah blah but but the only thing as a Class A real assets and they do go up when there's a lot of money Printing and so I if people know about real assets maybe they should do more research and homework and maybe that's what some stocks will go up too I mean you know the Hot Shots the Hot Shot stocks will go up again for a while yes everybody will rush in and say hooray Happy Days Are Here Again you know Amazon will go through the roof for a while you know 10 cent will go through the roof for a while but in the end usually for a while you have a bull market in real assets and for those who know what they're doing be prepared I've started investing in Uzbekistan recently but most people watching this show couldn't find us because it was one of the Soviet republics it was a disaster it was ruined by the Communists and even after the communism and so it's very cheap but now the people running the place run the play run the country the way you and I would and it's cheap and they're not many stocks so that might be an example but my main answer to that question which is because then feeds into is only invest in what you know about if you want to be successful stay with what you know everybody watching this show knows a lot about something whether it's fashion or cars or sports or something stay with what you know if you want to be successful if I told you you can have 25 investments in your life you wouldn't jump in and out of every Hot Shot you hear on a program or somewhere in the newspaper and you would be a successful employee go to the bar on Saturday night and let them all say oh my God there's that guy again talking about his boring boring stocks be boring if you want to be successful well that's that's great counseling I just want to remind people um you know how successful your career has been as an investor and you know to get to get the pearls of of what works from a guy like you folks you know listen closely when Jim speaks here um you know he's speaking from what what has worked over the Arc of his career um all right Jim still look as we begin to wrap things up here um I am curious because um I'm glad that that several times in this conversation that you have have flipped to focus on on where the optimism in the story can be um you're not just a gloomy guy by wiring you're not at all um but you got two daughters and we've talked about some pretty serious issues that the world is facing in the future and I'm just curious is there any other Council beyond what you've shared so far I'm just talking about life in general um as a father you know raising uh children and in your case two daughters and I have two daughters so I've got a selfish um uh you know uh hand in this fight um you know how do you how can you help them have some optimism in this future you know that they're stepping into um where there will be some of these challenges and you know you're a successful guy what are some successful Secrets just for happiness in life you're passing on to your kids well the answer to that question is and I I don't know how to do it but is to teach them to figure out their own Passions and then follow their own passions don't listen to their parents don't listen to their teachers don't listen to their friends figure out what they love and if people laugh at you when you tell them what you love and what you're going to do that really means you're doing the right thing you know you know you're on the right on the right track then uh because that Adam those are the successful people in life they get up every day they never go to work they get up and have a good time and they're usually successful because they love what they're doing so much no matter how absurd it is you know uh and even if they're not successful and they don't care because they're happy you know and you'd rather be unsuccessful and happy or successful and miserable
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