저자: Be Sensibull · 외국인
요약 보기
방송 진행자는 니프티 23,600 부근의 지지선이 유지되며 강한 그린 캔들이 나왔다고 설명합니다. 다만 급등을 확신하기보다 추세선과 갭, 저항 구간을 기준으로 일부 수익 실현을 고려하고 있습니다. 옵션 체인에서는 23,500 부근 저항과 ATM 풋 매도가 언급되며, 전체 PCR 1.7을 과열 신호로 봅니다. 외국인 투자자 데이터는 큰 베팅이 없었다고 전하고, 인도 10년물 국채 금리 추세선과 미국 국채 금리, 원유 가격 하락도 함께 다룹니다. 내일 만기와 미국 중간선거를 앞두고 변동성에 주의하라는 당부로 마무리합니다. 방송 내 개인적 보유 및 매매 언급이 포함되어 있어 참고용으로만 보시기 바랍니다.
다듬은 글
Hello and welcome to Calgary Market, our daily program on Nifty and Bank Nifty analysis. Oh, to start with, let me get this out of the system. Oh my god, we didn't expect this. Um, I mean, yeah, this support has held. You know, I was like very scared to not ask people to um not short because what if you miss the trade of a lifetime but looks like none of that happened.
Support held. I am not the biggest believer of a very large upside after this or maybe the pump that was promised is starting now. But one thing is for sure, Nifty is uh looking pretty strong. So is Bank Nifty right now. So let's uh write all our sorry observations one by one overnight also it's looking super strong crude has really taken like a yeah crude is down the whatever crude goes down oil pipes probably sorry so nifty has formed a strong marbo candle uh right so let me Just write that nifty forming a strong green maru bozu candle.
Bank Nifty also forming a green candle. So Bank Nifty's candle I won't call it like a mega candle. It's like an okay candle, right? It's it's like a mid candle at very best. But okay, whatever. We have what we have. PCR is supremely overheated that is tha worrying me which this last day theta boys are the problem.
Oh god no. Okay. So, what's kind of worrying to me is that 23500 has got a lot of resistance, right? And all these strikes are today's theta. See, at the first look of it, option chain of course looks strong. But what really worries me is that all the OI you are seeing in higher strikes are all new OI.
Let me just 23300. You see this right? This is this is new OI. There was no OI at 23300. All of this is new. So I'm not sure if this is going to hold, but let's write it down. Option chain is tricky because all the puts almost all the ATM puts were written today. In the past, we have noticed that sometimes it ends badly for putr writers and I'll say more often than not.
Right now, let me look at PCR. PCR is 1.1 around ATM that is fine 1.7 overall is overheated and a little dangerous like basically what I'm saying is tomorrow what will happen nobody knows day after tomorrow I'll be much more uh chilled so Um, so yeah, I can't believe I still can't believe this is really happening, right?
Reliance is playing like a huge Yeah, Reliance is crazy, man. Reliance is mental. I feel very bad because I had a friend who suggested to me, K, bro, buy Reliance. I one lot. I I wish I trusted that dude more, but I just bought one lot for him because he said so. But yeah, I I think I should trust my SEBI unregistered tipsters more.
Uh but let's look at uh FI data. Interestingly, today's FI data is muted. It's like nobody has bet on nothing today. Look at this, right? It's very I mean that's not very high volumes on either side. It's like 7K net. Um three ket interestingly no one has any big bets today. All segments have low change which inevitably leads us to futures.
Okay. 1,000 crores. FI bought 1,000 plus CR in futures. FI bought 3,000 plus CR in cash. Now comes the most important part, the verdict. Yeah, this is very tough. Okay, so midcap has bounced and we were talking about it earlier. Small cap has bounced. We have talked about that also earlier. S&P 500 is up 1% today.
NASDAQ is also up 1% today. I my strong feeling is that this uh is the start of another pump. USDNR is uh down today. Indian 10ear bond supremely interesting because it's like it took an absolute Uturn at this trend line connecting all the previous highs. Uh like what I really would love to know is is this signaling a rate cut like is it signaling a like if it turns around here right we are going to 630 620 again and then if it breaks we are probably hitting like I don't know what will cause that to happen but of course it's a very profound thing to happen if and when it happens so I still don't know see what I'm trying to say is um if It goes this way, inflation wins.
If it goes this way, recession wins. I don't know if we are going to be in a world where people's pain is inflation or we are going to be in a world where people's pain is recession. Of course, if recession come, real estate prices will fall and all the real estate builders, developers in India are politicians.
So they would ask the banks to fund their sales through giving low interest loan and the bill for that will be bored by the taxes that we pay because public sector banks are essentially our funds. So they'll offer us less return on our deposit. they'll um um use the RBA repo window which is the taxpay I'm not saying one specific government any government for the last 70 years for that reason they'll simulate home sales because obviously home sales are important to the political uh feudal ex feudal lord clause right um so if we see a recession bar slowdown bar deflation especially housing trouble this is going to happen if we see persistent inflation, stackflation etc.
and also a loss in confidence in India's repayment capacity which is also possible given if we overdo the whole welfare spending. First of all, I'm a huge fan of welfare spending because look dude, let's be honest, if we don't have it, we are one mob away um u like we are like one gated community gate away from mobs who will drag us out of our flats.
So, you know, as morbid as it may sound, I'm going to support all the welfare schemes, bro. I'm not an idiot to not support welfare scheme, right? That's what in in another country it's called social security. What um social security does not keep the beneficiaries secure, it keeps the others secure.
But anyway, uh this or this is a very important thing. And see my my sense is that okay if I'm getting um 7 and a half% on a government bond I'll take it right u but then that's just me dollar index is flat silver and gold have recovered obviously because what goes down so much has to bounce up a little bit at least US government yields have fallen below 5% 490 so at 530 it was a spectacular buy obviously you can see US20 everything is up today TLT DVB DDLA and the other big headline is that oil is down.
People will think it is Iran, Houthis etc. I say it was all written because um because if you look at this chart right sorry yeah you see this right this I it was kind of um expected that this would have happened because we had a shooting star on Friday at the top of a trend line from which we have seen multiple rejections and here we are now if tomorrow we have another down move and day after we have another it'll be so much fun to watch but our big question is not that our big question is what do we do with nifty right and that's not a trivial question because see these are the things to watch out for or I think I have a readym made graph in this yeah oh no I had it on trading view doesn't matter anyway we have the graph restored here.
See, I am a little skeptical of being long here. Um because there might be a small pullback before it goes up again. Uh but the first level which I'll watch out for is 23600. The second level which I'll watch out for of course is this trend line. Now this trend line I can draw differently because if I were to draw it connecting this top this top etc then it's a very different target right and because this is an an abnormal candle I'm more comfortable of course connecting this right so if this is the case then we have an upside even all the way to probably 24,000 right see but the question is how will you play this it's one thing to say you have an upside till here.
It's another thing to play that upside from this level. The other problem is we have a gap at 23600 also. We have a previous swing low here. This level you see right? This is a place from where there's a gap here. This has this point was the gap which we broke last time. Right? It has tested twice. So I'll be very very very skeptical of any more upside at 23600.
But if that upside crosses even then we have 23 like I'll find it very hard if Nifty goes above 24,000. If it breaks the 24,000 level then of course um if it breaks out right then we are going to do this right like I don't know if it is ATH or something else in between maybe 24800 we don't know right 25140 there was a gap here which was never tested a lot of things opened up once we crossed this but we are not anywhere near that yet but my sense is this right you're um at the end of the day some money was trade.
It's not bad money like we went long when on Thursday or something and we are up probably 2% which is a very nice 500 600 number to capture and if you were more aggressive than I was when I said yapp don't short some people decided to not short some people said okay that means long so those people would have made 800 points odd so I think at some point maybe not a bad idea to say okay I have made enough money I'm going to take a small break and then See what happens here.
Right? This is very important because at this level there could be some selling and for all you know uh let me just draw back that where did all the annotations go? Why did I why did I do this? Why did I delete this? I never had a plan to delete it but somehow I deleted it. Ready. Is it even my trading view?
This is my trading view, right? Yeah. See, I would want to get out of some profit at least here because there's a there's very clearly a gap here. There's a swing low here. There are too many things and this is total stretch, right? It has just gone up like unidirectionally all green candles for almost 1100 points.
So maybe at some point uh sorry I'm showing the wrong Oh god sorry today I was sharing a window instead of a tab right sorry screen share was frozen. Sorry I'm so sorry. Thank you for everyone. Uh oh I should have looked. So the thing is today I accidentally shared the window instead of the screen. So but sorry coming back my point is see um this is the um bottom which was formed it went up it now it came down it now and then it from 22 300 it went to 23600 not a bad move especially if you have done through call spreads or put spreads I would say around 60 to 70%age of the money is captured maybe not a bad idea to get out of this and book some profits because I would be very surprised if I don't see some downside at so there are multiple things which are making me hesitant.
One is of course at 23500 plus we'll see a resistance here which is the gap. Second is the last day theta boy theory will come in tomorrow. So if tomorrow we open with a gap up, I would expect Nifty to correct to be I know it's kind of a very specific call, but at this point I don't want to hold longs.
I do think there is still a possibility of maybe a target all the way to 23600 plus and if that breaks maybe 900, 800, etc. But a true real mega bull move I will expect only if this trend line breaks right one of these trend lines. Um so maybe but then the trend line is only 400 points away from where we are.
So maybe um because of the volatility because there's a possibility that we might go back to 23 160 or something. I don't want to gamble here. I'll take the profits here, chill for some time, see how the market evolves and then take the second trade. But um it's not necessary that we have to take a trade, right?
Um so um uh taking profits now is a the prudent move. Nifty has a gap around 23500. So sorry I'll tell you the exact gap. 600. So we may see a dip there. Uh plus the last day put writing makes tomorrow's index vulnerable. two down moves that trigger put stops. So cashing out tomorrow and will do nothing till a new trade idea comes.
This is what at least I will do. Right. government considering removing LTCG for FIS ML. I'm not going to say anything. It's all great. Sorry, I just forgot. What am I even thinking? Not a bad idea for considering SIPing into next year's far away puts, right? Um, of course you have to reconsider that if that trend line breaks, but uh, yeah, I would absolutely not want to uh, screw around now.
Uh, I say we'll just look at one more thing which is Reliance because this has been spectacular. Dude, this is crazy. Yeah, the the big headline is Reliance is above the trend line and quite sharply that. So there's a small part of me which asks me boss if the trend line is hill held and the support is moving up and if it's all looking like market is back on track what's the angle for you to say a crash that's a very good question but I'll believe it when I see breakout getting confirmed even in reliance I'd probably say maybe we will see 1300 plus a little bit more anything more than that I'll be skeptical In fact, I have some Reliance stock.
I'm going to get out of it tomorrow. No questions asked. And then just thank God key boss. Thank you for Reliance stock. Wrong entry. Um Pritesh, so far there's nothing to say this is a proper rally. It could be a trap because a trap um but let's not make that judgment, right? Let's see how the market plays out.
Like for all you know you we might get a nice exit tomorrow and then the market might dip and then it'll again give us the feeling that it is consolidating. But see here's one thing right let me take the weekly picture of nifty see this is a bullish engulf piercing this if next this week's candle is positive will become a confirmation.
So at least one week more of upside is likely like you get what I mean right like bullish piercing candle and then one more week of upside. So I don't really want to get out of the long position now or start shorting now simply because if this week's candle closes above previous week's candle close there has to be one more um you know um uh positive week.
But the catch is because tomorrow's expiry looks so tricky right in the sense there is last day theta boys there is this 23500 plus car resistance everything is coming into picture I'm just not comfortable doing it see if I if I again see 23 uh 140 or something coming in then I'll buy again um to see if it goes all the way to 23800 but I'm not comfortable with the idea of buying here if I get it at 23150 Okay, maybe I'll try a call spread with RR1 just to see if it goes all the way here.
But this is a very scary place to add further longs, enter new longs or not cash out, right? Um, but I still really really think that look bullish piercing one more candle and there has to be a third candle. Let's also look at what the Yeah, this is not a bad shape at all. Yeah, for maybe it'll continue but maybe not tomorrow.
Let's just take some profit and you know to Aram and then maybe market will give us other chance right um yeah so that is our analysis for today we'll see you again tomorrow thank you so much for joining and oh yeah sorry before that there is US midterm elections so bacho because tomorrow is US midterm elections and there might be a volatility after that so yeah so that is our analysis for today we'll see you again tomorrow thank you so much for joining and as usual please take here and keep your captain
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