저자: Zerodha · 외국인
요약 보기
이 영상은 Nifty와 Bank Nifty의 기술적 흐름을 짚으며 시작합니다. 발표자는 Nifty가 지지선을 확실히 잡고 두 번째 반등을 보였다고 보고, 23,200을 넘으면 단순 반등이 아닐 수 있다고 말합니다. Bank Nifty는 뚜렷한 패턴이 없지만 여러 차례 지지를 확인했다고 설명합니다. 옵션 데이터에서는 23,500까지 저항이 거의 없고 23,000 부근에 지지가 쌓여 있다는 점을 짚습니다. 또한 FII의 선물 숏과 현물 매수가 엇갈리는 수급 상황도 언급합니다. 이어서 금·은, 미국 10년물 금리, 달러 인덱스 등 해외 지표를 간단히 다룹니다. 후반부는 AI가 전문직과 IT 업계 일자리를 어떻게 바꾸는지에 대한 발표자의 개인적 경험과 우려를 담고 있습니다. 지식노동자 감소가 소비와 기업 이익, 부동산과 자동차 시장으로 번지는 연쇄 효과도 가정으로 제시됩니다. 발표자는 Nifty가 23,200을 시험할 가능성이 높으며 23,500이 깨지기 전까지는 약세로 보지 않는다고 밝힙니다. 영상은 불 콜 스프레드와 불 풋 스프레드를 11월 둘째 주 만기로 잡았다고 소개하며 마무리됩니다.
다듬은 글
Hello and welcome to Kala Market daily program on Nifty and Bank Nifty analysis. We'll wait for a couple of minutes before we have more people coming and then we'll get started in earnest. All right, let's get started. So, oh god, I can't believe I'm saying this. I can't believe I said this. We talked about bull call spreads or bull put spreads being the good trade.
I still don't know how this is going to work. But did we absolutely mist the pump? Is there still a pump left? See, in the long run, I don't have any hopes, okay? But in the short run, what if there is a pump left? So, uh, okay. So, let's focus on Nifty, right? See, if it had to break, if it did not break, last time it had a chance, then I don't think it's going to break anytime soon.
It might eventually break, but the odds of that is lower. Nifty has firmly taken a support and it is a second bounce. See if it if y I would have been somewhat doubtful because first bounce right it can be a scammy bounce but this is not a u so imagine this way let's say somebody dropped the ball sorry ber what am I talking about what kind of accent is somebody dropped a ball and if it bounces back right um the first bounce will somewhat be high and it'll come down but if the second bounce is higher than the first bounce bounce.
We can't assume that uh you know it is just bouncing from the floor, right? We have to assume that somebody's throwing back because laws of gravity, laws of friction, law of conservation of energy, a lot of stuff would agree that look if the second bounce is higher than the first bounce then it is not bounce, it's something else.
So if we have a higher high than 23200 coming, which is very very likely. Now boss, this is not a bounce. This was a bounce. This is not a bounce. So let's just I don't want to be short given that this is so I have always been saying I don't want to be short but I only had the conviction to be slightly long now.
So I'll give you multiple theories why I won't be long short here. See first of all this was a bearish uh uh piercing or what fancy people call dark cloud cover right? the dark cloud cover did not work right and it got invalidated. I mean technically the pure invalidation is um 23 160 but the more important thing is it did not confirm and it bounced off a support and the dark cloud cover is normally formed at the top of an uptrend.
wrong false signal dark cloud cover formed at the bottom of a downtrend not getting confirmed with a um bullish piercing. Now I mean technically this candle would have been piercing if it opened below the low. So the classical definition of piercing is the open has to be below the low of this candle but it's below the body.
So I mean it's how do I it's not a classical uh bullish piercing okay because it should have opened below the low of the previous candle but we have what we have but this is a very nice strong bounce candle it's not some random candle bank nifty is not as optimistic as nifty but nifty is definitely definitely looking strong so nifty weekly candle is a bullish candle If the previous high and the exact number is 23 160 odd of 23 152 23 200 zone goes away.
we are in for a stronger rally. At that point, I won't call it a bounce. I would call it a decent buying interest, right? Uh that is true. Amik says, "Bro, check your mail. I haven't seen the mail." Unfortunately, a lot of the mails I get um go into my spam. I have to check my spam more often. I will do that.
Thank you, Paul. Thank you. We'll keep doing more videos on IV. Um some deal happened between Qatar and Iran. We'll come to that also. Bank Nifty has a green candle. So I don't know if it is any candle. Okay, because um see for it to be any candle it has to have like what is this is nothing. It's not a harami because the body is not within the other body.
It's not a piercing. It's not an engulfing. It's nothing. It's a it's a dogey. It's an indecision candle. But we have to be cognizant of the fact that there has been multiple um so let's forget this gigantic head and shoulder for a bit but it's kind of hard to not see this support here and the head on shoulder is not getting confirmed.
Ideally the head and shoulder would have been confirmed if we closed below this uh 53500 odd level but it's not happening. So this is not a weak bank nifty either right is going to black blast tomorrow. So nifty strong bullish Om is asking am I serious about AI job loss I'll come to that okay I'll talk about some stuff about AI my god like people who have absolutely no literacy about I do see I don't consider myself an extreme expert on technology or anything but you know I I I'm surrounded by people who are that and all of them come on a call with me and said b say boss we are dead right so don't don't trust me but I I promise you people around me are really smart and they are saying we are dead end.
I don't know what to say but anyway coming back to um market we'll check open interest but I yeah it's very strong open is very strong 23,000 is a solid support 23,000 is a good support right and PCR is PCR is a little overheated 1 + around ATM 1.6 overall. A little overbought. 1.6 is a little overbought to be very honest.
This is a little overbought. But look at the texture. Sorry, the uh distribution of this option chain, right? There's nothing no resistance at all all the way to 23500. And that's a that's very telling. Whereas 23,000 23 22 900 800 700 everything has supports here. So I don't think this open interest is going to break anytime soon and I'll be very surprised if the FI data doesn't agree with this and it disagrees with it.
Okay, by change fi and pro bearish client bullish. Now let's look at participant future data. Still short. FI sold under 500 CR in futures. FI bought 3500 cr in cash. Somebody please tell me this is a blog deal. Please tell me this is a blog deal. 23800 incoming says Jagger. I won't be surprised, bro.
I won't be surprised at all. Check gold. Yeah, I think gold will go to $3,300 to be very honest. I mean, gold, silver, we kept saying let's short, let's short, let's short. I didn't short. I hope some of you shorted and made money. Please tell me you guys shorted silver or gold. Deepanker, it's my name at sensible uh.com.
The whole point of uh you know getting starting your company is to get your first name as email block deal. There is a block deal. What block deal is that? Okay, we'll also look at now let's look at binance USDT. Okay, 102. So, it's down from Friday's 104, but it's still up there. So, let's look at all of the markets.
Small cap is down, midcap is down, but on the weekly candles, you can see that this is not bad at all. Both small cap and midcap looks strong on weekly candles. USDR is sub 95 now. High in 10ear bond is at 740. uh gold see I mean I'll be very surprised if we don't see 35 3500 to 3300 maybe there will be a temporary spite here we have to see what happens at that point now silver is down 6% and we had drawn this and it uh broke that and like an idiot I kept watching without shorting I don't know what was going on in my head at 58 I remember a regular man government and I used to have so many conversations about bro y line y line and y line and that line came and like idiots we just watched uh US 10year yield is below five and that's a very big headline because at this point everybody was saying the world is coming to an end at 540 see how quickly so if if you want perspective on this 50 point drop in US uh bond yield 50 basis points 5% uh EDV went up like 78%.
So we talking about some crazy crazy appreciation in a bond when this happens in a long duration bond. Um so yeah so what is it that we are planning to do again? Praul is saying $6 billion heist. I don't know if it's a heist or something else. Okay. 982 cr block deal in Swiggy. Oh I see. Um I can't believe Swiggy fell from 280 to 180.
Like I remember I had done some intraday gambling on Swiggy, bought it around 270, sold it around 285, felt like such a hero and then I realized that trade to do was to short it at 280 which I did not do. My god, I was so stupid. But anyway, coming back um so what's our verdict, right? uh but a lot of people are asking about AI but so let me just share my perspective on AI right not that it matters because I'm not an AI expert but I'll give you some hint see I was for some reason some extreme believer in AI in 2022 or 2023 like I definitely three four maybe by four I'm I was remembering I was even uh doing my race with AI I was asking uh you know uh like I have a lot of projects going on AI.
I used I have used AI to compile uh uh legal notices to reply to legal notices to help draft some kind of a financial u policy guideline for the parliament. I have used AI to manage all my health and my family's health. I have used AI u to work on my hobby weekend car project. I have used AI to create a website to monitor vitals of my entire family.
I have used AI to do a candlestick detection project. Uh maybe I should open source it now. I have used AI to uh do the prototype for that candle uh stick based algo trading thinker first version website for us. Uh my team writes code only using AI now cla code there's no engineer in our team who doesn't use AI we had 40 people which is our higher highest strength in so we don't have sales we don't have operations we don't have anything other than engineering this a choice we made so we have a we had a 40 people strong team in 2023 and u uh people used to leave for whatever reason so we have a policy of not firing people because um unless people do something really really wrong, right?
Like you have to really put in some serious effort to be asked to leave from sensible is my understanding. But u sometimes people go for better opportunities. But what has happened for us is when somebody leaves because they found something better to do, we have never replaced anybody. And just like that um our team strength reduced from 40 to 30 and even now we know that we have more people than we need but we won't fire but we know like basically there is so much more we are getting done with so fewer people and see we were a very lean team right like see imagine this um if you think uh Microsoft or an Oracle or an Infosys is a bron is a brontosaur who eats uh 10,000 burgers a day, right?
Sensible is the opposite lean team of that. We are so lean that like how do I put it? We are probably so in China there are something called fat camps. If you are fat you can go join the camp and they'll literally starve you right. They won't give you food. They'll restrict your calorie to the point you lose weight.
It's like a jail. It's a fat jail right? So we are so lean that if Microsoft looks like a brontosaur which eats 1 million burgers a day, we are somebody who spent 3 years straight in a Chinese um fat camp, right? We have lost so much weight that we look like people coming out of a we look like uh Christian Bale in that movie where he's just all you know uh skin that despite being that lean after AI 25%age of our team is gone and we we are still thinking boss we have too many people now right now imagine the average and see we are not doing dumb IT work right we are doing slightly smart I I'm not I'm not claiming to do smart IoT work at all but we are doing slightly to the towards the right side of the median of the bell curve in terms of what we do and now imagine all the IT companies that you can think of yeah the mechanic that's the movie that is what we are talking about and see I no longer go to a physio because AI I no longer have a lawyer Because AI I think my accountant is probably the best accountant I've seen so far.
AI catches nuances in tax law which he sometimes misses. Right. um AI caught a loophole in a tax law which the foremost authority of India's tax which I who I can't name because you know of a particular segment in Indian tax and I forget that I asked a couple of people who are in the item income tax department they could not point out to the exact nuance and AI caught that right and so I'm talking about um so we use claude opus on it I mean we can switch the model but I'm saying that if anybody thinks this is not real it's going to be an extremely rude awakening I dude I I people are thinking I'm saying this because I'm not worried for my job right but the point is um see I know all of us will lose our jobs and there's a hierarchy of losing our jobs like people who are writing copy will go first people who are parallegals paramedics etc who are do not doing physical work might go first then comes low-level coders then comes mid-level coders then comes high level coders then comes product managers then comes people like me I'm also get going to get fired thanks to an AI I talked to another friend of mine in Silicon Valley.
Dude has 10 companies running all whose employees are AI agents, right? And yes, last week he appointed another AI agent as the CEO of that company. And that each of those 10 companies make something like $100 a day. Like imagine it, right? like he has just got 10 absolutely h imaginary companies with AI bots as employees with AI bot as CEO and he's making $100 a day with these 10 like he's just one dude sitting in uh Silicon Valley with a laptop right and side project I mean he has a real job in a real company but he just wanted to mess around with the system so he founded 10 companies with AI employees each of those 10 companies make $100 a day so you can Do the math.
It's it's mental was like and people are thinking this is not real. I mean this is actually like that dude chills while his bank account gets $100 a day from 10 different companies. That's $1,000 a day, $7,000 a week and 28,000 sorry. Yeah. $28,000 a $30,000 a month. That's $300,000 a year, right? Like how many people do you know who actually make $300,000 a year?
10 imaginary AI companies put together make more than quart million dollar a year. So you know oh my god I think I have to talk to that dude and ask him bro please tell me how you made these companies and I'll ask him to teach me probably I can also make $300,000 a year. Right? But but this is the thing which I'm uh talking about.
So this is real this is so going to happen. So what our portfolios will be impacted by I think the larger picture for this stock market right is see if a lot of people lose jobs and there are roughly 800 million knowledge workers in the world that is probably 10%age of the world's population. I don't know what percentage of their jobs will be automated away and if 800 million knowledge workers may even a 10% job loss among those 800 million uh knowledge workers has profound implications on world economy and I'm not saying this is recession or draw down or dip right I'm talking about something world changing matrix movie script as I call it happening in front of our eyes.
So if this happens a lot of people will lose jobs. If a lot of people will lose job they won't have money to spend. If they don't have money to spend companies can't sell them stuff. If companies can't sell them stuffs companies profits will reduce. If their profits reduce they have to lay off more people.
Their share price goes down. This becomes a spiral. So which is see with this thing looming you cannot be overly optimistic about any of the current u automatable industries in the forget automatable industries right if a lot of people see look at Bangalore if AI play gets harder all of Bangalore real estate is going to face severe difficulties so if you are planning to put money in real estate index sizees REIT real estate companies so many of their them are lifted listed auto right because people buy cars when they have money mostly in this part of the world at least IT employees are the single biggest driver of cars so you get the meta right this has profound implication on stocks your portfolio what the world will look like in the next 5 years blah blah blah like I I'm saying this because I talked to a lot of people who saw one free version of Chad GPT and assume this is not a threat If you take the latest frontier model, the highest most expensive paid version, your opinion is going to dramatically get a very bad hit, right?
So um the point is uh yeah, you get the point. So forget all that. So now the question is what do we do with Nifty? Nifty for now despite everything that I'm saying looks strong. There's no escaping it. If Nifty breaks 23200 also then please expect a higher push too. So uh verdict Nifty will test 23200 likely if that breaks.
Let's see where it is going. This is the gap 23600 gap bearish now only below that's a very far away target but 23500 I don't think there's any bearishness till the support breaks trades holding actually I took Both I took both bull call spreads and bullput spreads for November the second November exp as in the not the first weekly the second weekly expiry.
Um oh this we have said earlier. So that is our trade to um you know uh run with this. So that is our analysis for today. We'll see you again tomorrow. Thank you so much for joining and as usual, please take care and keep your capital safe.
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