저자: Be Sensibull · 외국인
요약 보기
Be Sensibull 진행자는 Nifty가 지난 8거래일 중 가장 높은 종가로 마감하며 단기 바닥을 형성한 것으로 보고, 22,500 아래에서만 약세 심리가 유효하다고 설명한다. 1차 목표 23,300, 2차 목표 23,800(200일 이동평균선 부근)을 제시하며, 주봉의 상승 반전 캔들과 Bank Nifty의 강한 종가를 근거로 든다. 옵션 데이터에서는 22,800 이하 지지, 23,000 콜 OI 저항, 1.4 수준의 PCR을 언급한다. FII는 선물에서 400크로어, 현물에서 950크로어를 순매도했다. 이 밖에 금·은·유가, 우유와 식품 위생, 뭄바이 식당 폐쇄 등 시장과 무관한 일상 이야기도 포함되어 있다. 본 요약은 원문 내용의 정리이며 투자 권유가 아니다.
다듬은 글
Welcome to the daily Nifty and Bank Nifty analysis program. So without further ado, let's begin today's analysis. So, let's move on to our graphs. First, yesterday we said that nothing is over until it's over . If there is no breakdown, it will trigger a rally . Uh, a break of the 22,500 level is the only thing that justifies a short position.
So until we break 22,500, don't open short positions. Regarding long positions, we don't see any momentum, so I wouldn't say it's worth buying right now. Additionally, the growth target may be limited, making it difficult to play. In addition, the Fed's decision on interest rates. So our main rule was— we won't short here.
Uh, and yesterday on the Sensex we saw some support through put options. Ahem. So, if you, uh, um. Look, and more, right? Everyone around , absolutely everyone, is sure that the market here will collapse. Yes? Everyone was confident. People were saying that 22,500 was broken, uh, the chatter on social media reached a point, you know, it's that kind of thing, I always think that markets turn around right when people start giving money to the government.
I mean, I...it's been happening all the time these last few days. So, look, my method is that... Everyone was shorting, everyone was confident about the 22,500 breakdown, everyone was confident about the December target of 20,400, and that's when the market surprises, right? And now the problem is that even today many have not exited their short positions opened at 22,500 or elsewhere, and we are already at 22,900.
I don't think this is the end. In fact, I'm guessing there might be a rally to...in the words of Amitabh Bachchan in KBC... sorry, not KYC, what's the name of the program there, KBC. Okay, fun fact: I was a "phone buddy" for two people on this show a long time ago. So I shouldn't be mistaken with the name of the show.
So yeah, this is KBC, and I think we're looking at somewhere around 23,300, that's my guess, but honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if there's growth all the way up to here... why did I take a short note for a minute, oh my god. I wouldn't be surprised if we get all the way to 23,800, because I'm just putting this together, this, and this, and maybe we'll get there, so it depends, right, 23?
800 is also a very good number because it's the 200-day simple moving average, so the 200-day average is at 23,800 or 900, maybe even 24,000, but I don't think it's going to get there that quickly. But let's assume it happens in November; Let's say by November 19th we see this 200-day moving average, then it will be around 23,800.
So my first base—maybe we'll see 23,300, because we were talking about 23,300 before, and it didn't come. She just let us all down by making a second bounce here. So my first guess is 23,300. My second guess is 23,800. I really think there is a possibility of a bounce to 23,300. The market is closing now, sorry, the Nifty is closing now.
closed highest close in last 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7—local minimum, maximum—1, 2 , 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8. Nifty closed at highest level in last eight days with strength and momentum . Real momentum, right? It was just going up after consolidation today. It kind of faltered a little bit at the beginning, but then, and now the weekly candle, look, last week I was talking about, uh, bearish cloud cover, breakout, engulfing—whatever you call it, right?
Covered with dark clouds . Such a figure, formed at the end of a trend, is usually not a bearish signal . Plus, it's a bullish harami, uh, cross. So it looks like...you see, I can't believe I'm saying this, but it looks like a foundation is forming. Now we have to respect what we see on the graph, because that's what we see, right?
I can't say that the macroeconomics looks bad, oil is expensive, you know, India may not become a "world teacher" (Vishwaguru ), it's all nonsense, right? We have to look at the schedule. The chart says that a base is forming, so I will respect the chart and say that the weekly candle looks like a bullish breakout.
Well, it takes another day for confirmation , of course, but it's a bullish breakout, right? Yeah, so yeah. Bank Nifty is also looking strong and this is very interesting because now Nifty and Bank Nifty are both in agreement. Yeah, and Bank Nifty also gave a pretty strong close. I would say the strongest close in recent times, not as strong as Nifty, but Bank Nifty is also closing strong.
It closes strong and strong. I don't know if this is the third limit. A strong close tomorrow will force both indices to give weekly bullish reversal candles. Because if Bank Nifty can close tomorrow, say, a little higher, it will be a bullish breakout. Nifty is obviously already showing a “ bullish puncture”, but if it really goes up, it will become a “bullish engulfing”.
What makes me a little sad is the moon candle. The moon candle is not super strong, but it is not weak either. This is a pretty good candle, right? Both have dojis. It would be really good if they opened a little higher and closed a little higher because that would be a "harami", but it's just a green candle.
But it's still a green candle , right? So, um, yeah. I know that a base could form here and it could start to grow, and the whole theory about "it's all over by December" might not come true. I mean, we did n't support that theory anyway. We followed the "last pump" theory . But our pump was untimely, if it starts now, I will be very angry, because it is unfair, simply unfair.
They were supposed to stage a pre-IPO rally for Mukesh-bhai. They did a pump after the IPO. And now you see a lot of base formation here. 22,800 and below is strong support. I can't consider 23,000 as resistance because it's a round strike, and round strikes always have that kind of resistance. And none of these open interests (OIs) are new.
This is an old OI that has been there since the beginning of this expiration period. So, 22,800 and below is support. There is some old OI on call options at the 23,000 level. If this level is broken, there is no resistance until 23,400. And this is very interesting. Now let's look at the PCR indicator.
1.4, which is a very strong indicator. 1.1 around the ATM level. And 1. 4 in total. This is a strong PCR. He's not just "bullish," he's quite strong. Now let's look at the options data of market participants. This is very obvious because today we know that the FII on Thursday changed, FII and DII are in the positive.
Sorry, pro traders are also positive. Clients are in a bearish mood. Positive, not necessarily "bullish". It's a good thing they came up with that term because, um, and it's still a cash sale , huh? FIIs sold Rs 400 crore in futures. FIIs sold for Rs 950 crore for cash. Before we jump to a conclusion, let's look at something else, because, well, you see it, right?
Yesterday we talked about how a base is formed in mid- and small- cap stocks. It looks like the base is forming . But right now I'm a little concerned about small caps because, um, but yeah. You see this, right? This is the swing level. This is the swing level. So maybe it will pull back a little bit, but it doesn't look like any of us are trading the small-cap index .
So, everything is fine. Even mid-caps may resist, but we'll wait and see. Sorry, the S&P is falling. Nasdaq—S&P at . The Nasdaq is falling. The exchange rate is 90.25 rupees. India's 10-year bond has strengthened , and that's good news because if you zoom out, you can see that it was a wedge. And now the question is: will he go here or here?
And for the love of God, I really hope he doesn't go here, because this is an extremely inflationary regime. But imagine, this is a regime in which even the government recognizes deflationary inflation. So imagine what kind of inflation this is. My God. I don't want to imagine what kind of inflation this is.
So I hope he goes here. I will be happier in deflation. I think we would all be happier with deflation. Yes, deflationary crashes are bad. But everyone watching this KL Arch, sorry. I just hope to save the minority. Everyone who watches KL Arch is better off with deflation. Because our assets are set for deflation.
I hope it happens. I don't want this to happen. This will be terrible for everyone. This is an inflationary world. And the problem is that we already know that there is no growth. If that happens, it's stagflation, and no one knows how to get out of it. In this case, asset prices could at least fall.
Real estate may fall. Stocks will fall. So some of us will at least be able to make bargain purchases of stocks, houses, etc., right? But that won't be good, considering we have no growth. If this also happens, then we will find ourselves in a true stagflation zone. I would prefer deflation to stagflation, and many central bankers around the world would happily agree.
OK. Increasing milk prices is inflation, you know. Dude, I have to say this. I don't know if you know. Milk X, a popular milk, gives the farmer Rs 20 from every litre. Milk Y is milk that is uh...Okay, milk Y is Akshayakalpa. I order from Akshayakalpa. Of course, conflict of interest , this is Rain Matter, but the guy is good, uh.
We have to give him credit . He was sent outside India to study engineering. He returned, became a farmer and is trying to create a younger generation of farmers in India. A very respectable, noble profession, I think. I still believe that people like us are parasites on the world, because if I, at least, just disappear, nothing will change in the world.
If Sensibull closes, nothing in the world will change. If options trading stops, nothing in the world will change. The world might be a better place without derivatives, traders, and all those Wall Street people, but without farmers, the world is a terrible place, and Akshayakalpa is engaging young farmers in India, and that's what everyone should be doing.
Anyway, Akshayakalpa gives us, as far as I know, at least twice as much as a regular dairy federation or union gives to a farmer, and of course, that's why Akshayakalpa milk is better. It is much more expensive . So, if you don't know, many dairy farms in India give their cows antibiotics just in case, because if they get sick, their milk production will drop.
And since milk usually appears in a cow when she is lactating, and she is lactating when she has a calf, but not all cows have calves all the time, they are given progesterone. So, progesterone is a hormone. I don't know if you know, but please look up information about progesterone. Progesterone really does harm to the body.
So, Akshayakalpa does not use progesterone . At least I have to believe that, because I think I have some idea of how it works. But if you have a different opinion, please correct me, because in that case I have to change my point of view. Uh-huh . So, uh. So, yes. Moksh says he fears for my life.
Why are you afraid for my life, bro? I'm too unimportant a person for anyone to care about me. Anyway, the bottom line is, if you're buying milk, please try to find out if they use antibiotics, because kids drink this milk with antibiotics in it, and their stomachs become resistant to them, man. This is madness , honestly.
We are suffering incredible damage. In civilized first world countries, things are much better, but that's not the case here. Maybe even in post-Soviet countries like Georgia, it's better with this, you know. Anyway, going back. This is very interesting. Let's see where Indian government bonds go. Silver and gold have fallen, but that has been our baseline from the beginning.
We always expected gold and silver to fall. I still consider silver to be the biggest bubble of our lifetime. Just as there are uncles who bought silver in the 1980s and went broke 30 years later, if they live to see it , I think there will also be people among us who will see a correction in silver, perhaps even back to 30, where it all began.
Um , I don't think 20 will come back, but you never know for sure, right? Like, anything is possible, right? We saw a crazy phase of recovery. Gold is obviously also falling, and it's not really growing either. US bonds rose slightly. Oil fell by one and a half percent. Oil could be very interesting right now because on the weekly timeframe we have a "bearish harami" right under the very Oh my god, what am I doing?
Sorry. On the weekly timeframe we have a very important Oh, that's because I put alerts on these webhooks. However . So, I have to delete these notifications . We experimented a bit. Okay, everything is fine now. So, this is a " bearish harami" at the top of an uptrend right below the resistance line.
If this holds and next week is the same , then it could surprise us. I don't know how much of a surprise this will be. Will it be a big surprise or a small one? Nobody knows, but at this point, oil looks very interesting in terms of its location. Uh-huh. So, overall, you can't believe I'm saying this , but Nifty seems to have found a temporary bottom, and you can't short this market.
Maybe we'll still reach 23,300. Or maybe even more. I can't believe I'm saying this, boss. I can't believe I'm saying this. Bullish call spreads or bullish put spreads with a maturity of more than 10 days, at least I don't want to do that for next week because it's difficult. So, maybe the week before last.
Hmm . Bearish sentiment only below 22,500. Oh my god, I wrote that. I can't believe I wrote this, but Yes. Yes, we can talk about Bitcoin too . That's a very valid point, Prakhar Sharma . Like that. So, I had a friend, my classmate. She was the head of OK, the head of something in some Germanic, not Germany, some Germanic country in Europe, of course.
And they recently moved to India. My classmate is from IIM and her first concern was how to find safe food for her children. Because you have to read the label twice, read everything twice. I mean, there's so much stuff like that, right? Look at Indian chocolate, look at chocolate made outside India.
As with everything else, yes. Oh my God, to go to...I mean, uh, I asked my friend. I had plans to go to Bombay. I was like, "Hey, boss, are we going to this restaurant while I'm there?" And he says: "Boss, you can't go there because they found rats in the kitchen and it's closed ." Rats in the kitchen, and, uh, they closed it.
Uh , so, yes. Tipu Karthikeyan, I love you too, dude. Thank you, Prabhakar. Thank you for your comment . So let's do one last thing— bitcoin, because we haven't talked about bitcoin in a really, really, really, really, really long time. I'm, like, really tempted to buy an inverse Bitcoin ETF in my US brokerage account, but I wo n't.
I don't know, dude. Like, uh, maybe it'll take off. Who knows? They are set on growth...They can outpace everything, right? Even Anthropic's IPO is approaching. This is a good time for a pump. You see, technically the S&P still broke the trend line, and I don't think the S&P looks weak. Okay? Perhaps the S&P still has a good 500 points left to grow.
The Nasdaq doesn't look weak either. Anthropic's IPO will take place. They can raise it a little more. There are clearly no signs of a turnaround . I...it just breaks my heart to say this. I just feel compelled to go back to my, you know, conspiracy theory about the pump. I just really, really bad timing ...
you know, uh We really, really, really bad timing for the pump, I think. I think the pump will probably be... between now and Diwali. In any case, that's our analysis for today. See you tomorrow. Thanks for joining, and as always, please take care and keep your capital safe. See you later .
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