저자: PeterLynch · 외국인
요약 보기
과거 1997년 Charlie Rose 인터뷰 클립을 재편집해 현재 과열 시장에서의 투자 원칙을 설명한 영상이다. 핵심 결론: 시장이 과열되어 있어도 자신이 잘 아는 기업을 찾아 장기적으로 보유하는 것이 원칙이다. 시장 밸류에이션: 역사적으로 S&P500 PER은 대략 10~20배 사이였고 20배가 상단이다. 영상 제작자는 현재 시장 PER을 약 35배로 제시하며 1929, 1999년과 비교해 과열 우려를 언급한다. 투자 방법론 1: 자신의 능력범위(circle of competence) 안에서 투자한다. 예로 외식업 종사자라면 피자헛, 타코벨 등을 이해하는 것이 유리하다고 설명한다. 투자 방법론 2: 기업을 깊이 분석해 재무와 펀더멘털을 이해한다. 부채가 낮고 현금흐름이 좋은 기업을 선호한다. 투자 방법론 3: 시장이 하락하여 적정가치에 가까워지거나 저평가 구간이 되는 기회를 노린다. 과열 시장에서 이미 높은 가격에 거래되는 기업은 위험 대비 보상이 불리하다고 본다. 영상은 테슬라 PER을 약 1,300배로 언급하며 완벽한 성장이 이미 반영되어 있다고 경고한다. 단기 시장 예측에 대해서는 누구도 알 수 없으며, 기업 이익은 10~20년 후에 더 높아질 것이라는 장기 관점을 강조한다. 경기침체는 반드시 올 것이지만 시점은 예측 불가하다는 입장이다. 옵션 등 파생상품은 이해 범위를 벗어나므로 피해야 한다고 주장한다. 영상은 Lynch의 원칙을 현재 시장에 적용할 수 있는 교훈으로 정리하며, 장기 보유와 저평가 기업 발굴을 핵심 메시지로 전달한다.
다듬은 글
원문은 영어 자막이라 그대로 영어로 다듬었습니다.
Hello everyone, welcome back to the channel. In this video, we're going to talk about some investment lessons we can learn from Peter Lynch to apply to our investments in 2021.
So, let's watch an old interview Peter Lynch did with Charlie Rose. I must apologize, some of the cuts in this interview will be quite abrupt, because Charlie Rose keeps interrupting Peter all the time. I tried my best to get to the heart of the argument, since the whole interview lasts about 25 minutes, so I've tried to cut it down and leave the best parts. That said, let's get right into it.
Explain to me what's happening. Well, we had a great run. The market was at 4,000 just two and a half years ago, and it rose to 8,300 in August. And, like any big surge, sometimes it recedes. In other words, it's healthy.
Is it really? Because everything is overrated. Yes, and that doesn't help at all. Since World War II, the market has sold for 10 to 20 times earnings. If you look at the Dow Jones or the S&P 500, if you add up all the companies and take the profits, you see that there is a relationship, and that is true. McDonald's earnings have been fantastic over the past 30 years, and the stock has been fantastic too. There is a direct relationship. So the S&P 500's gains have been in this 10 to 20 range. We were about to break above 20, which is the upper end of the price-earnings range, and there wasn't much room left. So, is a ratio of 20 the maximum limit it should reach?
Correct. It has only been above 20 a few times in history, and that is when inflation is usually close to zero.
This clip sets the stage, because what Peter Lynch describes here is really what we see today. He talks about how the market's price-to-earnings ratio generally sits between 10 and 20, with 20 being that upper limit. These days, we've discovered what the ultra-upper limit of that number looks like, and it appears to be close to 30. That's a little scary, because what we're currently seeing is a price-to-earnings ratio for the market of 35. It has only been above 30 three times in history: 1929, 1999, and right now.
So there's no doubt the market is hot, just as it was when Peter Lynch gave this interview in 1997. But the question we need to ask ourselves is: how do we invest in this environment? Yesterday's drop, in a sense, alleviated some of this overvaluation. The market was overvalued where it was, and by releasing some of that, we returned to what is reasonable.
Well, yes, I would say they are fairly priced. Perhaps the larger companies are fine now. There might be some small businesses. We've had 3,000 companies go public in the last four years, that's two per business day. Some of those companies have fallen drastically, and that's an area of research that average people can explore in the market. Some people know a lot about these 10,000 public companies. Many of them are very attractive, and nobody follows them. There are a lot of people following IBM. Many people follow companies that no one else followed. I like companies with unions, companies in trouble, or companies that nobody looks at. Hotels that had good beds, and well, yes, you have to look at many of them. What stockings did my wife wear? I don't know the story. Okay, you have Pier 1 Imports, my wife found that one too, but you have to look at 20 to find one. It's simply, you know, go to the mall and find the action. In other words, you have to say, "Oh my God, this sounds good." Then you have to follow some steps. You need to follow an organized method.
In this clip, Peter inadvertently describes exactly how we should approach our investments right now. Today, although the market is very high, we are in an environment where many companies are actually falling. An index like the S&P 500 is literally propped up by five to ten giant high-performing companies. What Peter tells us is that to be a great investor even when the market is overvalued, you have to stop looking only at those giant companies. Everyone follows them, everyone is invested in them, and their prices are sky-high. So we should broaden our horizons and look at companies beyond the fiftieth largest in the S&P 500, or beyond the twentieth largest in the ASX 200, because that's where you're most likely to find value. The other secret is that you have to keep looking at many companies. The best investors are the ones who turn over the most stones. As Peter Lynch said, you have to look at 20 to find one.
People are careful when buying a toaster. Careful? They are careful when they buy one. They do some research. But they don't do it with stocks. They call their broker or see someone at lunch and say, "Hey, I've got this hot stock," and you run out and spend $5,000. Small investors. Or worse, they put an option on International Data. What? They don't even own International Data. They have a 90-day bet. But Bill said it was good and that they would make a lot of money. Correct. And it's like a casino. Yes. So it's like a casino. You get the same results, except there's more paperwork.
Very good. So this morning you get up and look at the companies that you know something about. You need to have an advantage. Let's say the cement industry goes from bad to mediocre and then to pretty good. The stocks are going to go up. You're going to make money. That's the industry you know. What happens if you know the publishing industry? Some people have an advantage. What if you've worked in the restaurant industry for the last 30 years? You would have seen Taco Bell, Sbarro, Pizza Hut, Chili's, and you would have seen that these companies were doing very well. You should have bought those instead of trying to buy biotech stocks you know nothing about. I don't know anything about local area networks. Many people bought Cisco, buying the equipment saying, "We're going to connect all these peripherals and assemble the servers." That's not a bad purchase, because they owned a large percentage of their market. They said only a few people had them. I said, "My God, if it works for us, others will try it, then universities will try it, high schools will try it, then they'll go abroad." They knew they were in an early stage of the game. Correct. And they should have been buying that company instead of something they know nothing about, some oil drilling company. People have this tendency to always buy something they don't understand.
All you need is a few good deeds, Charlie. Yes, but that's your song. This has been your song for a long time: only buy what you know. But people wake up in the morning and say there are 5,000 companies out there, which one should they buy? The average person should be able to follow four or five companies. They could give a lecture about them. Companies understand. This tool forces you to write the story.
So that makes sense. You obviously have to start by doing some research. Peter says people do a lot of research when they go to buy a toaster. Why don't people do much research when they're going to buy a stock? Don't treat the stock market like a casino. And when you actually sit down to learn about some companies, look at the companies that are relevant to you. Warren Buffett calls this staying within your circle of competence. Peter Lynch's example is: if you work in the restaurant industry, look at Pizza Hut and Taco Bell. These are companies you probably already understand at a fairly high level, so don't mess with the biotechnology companies that nobody understands. Once you find the companies that resonate with you, go in and do the research. As Peter Lynch says, you only need four or five good ideas in a decade. Warren Buffett would say you need even fewer. But you need to know those companies well enough to give a lecture about their business.
So the first step is to stay within your circle of competence. The second step is to go in and understand those businesses thoroughly. After that, what happens next? Okay, let's listen.
One thing you try to do is say, "Of all these public companies out there, this is one I really like. The fundamentals are fantastic. Their earnings are doing well. Their competitors are doing poorly. I think this company is doing excellently." And suddenly, the stock could have gone from 40 to 30 because of this drop. That's what I'd say: "Wow, here's an opportunity to buy it." So you try to look at companies that might have been overvalued at 60, and all they did was drop to 50, and say, "Big deal." So you try to find companies that you liked anyway. Right now, you like them, and now they've had a price cut. That's what you would do. Not a stock that went from overvalued to fair price, but something that was fairly priced at the start of this exercise and then had a really good offer.
If you had been managing the Magellan Fund this morning, you would have been buying like crazy. I would have been investigating like crazy. I would have been asking, "Which companies have the same story? Is something really going on?" This is a non-event for them. They're still working well. Even if we have a recession, it has nothing to do with them. That's the kind of company I was trying to buy. But say a company, just think of it this way: you believe this company is going to make something in the future. If you're already discounting that, if it's selling at a huge multiple, you say, "That's it, it has to work." And then it just stays the same. So you have to ask yourself, "If I'm right, how much am I going to earn? If I'm wrong, how much will I lose?" That's the risk-reward relationship. When buying stocks, if I'm right, I expect to double or triple my money. If I'm wrong, I might lose 30 or 40 percent. That's a favorable relationship. If I'm right, the stock won't go up, because it's already discounting fantastic things. If fantastic elements are already priced into the stock, I don't want it.
OK. So the first step is to find a company where you have an advantage. The second step is to really understand the business, its finances, and its fundamentals. But what Peter Lynch points out in this environment, where basically everything is overvalued, is that you want to find companies that have a fair value, even in this environment of extreme overvaluation. As investors, we buy undervalued stocks, right? We always buy at a discount to intrinsic value, and that's how we expect to make money in the long run.
Now, if you find a company that is truly excellent but very expensive in this environment, and then the market drops 10 or 15 percent and brings the stock back to its fair value, remember that you're still paying the full retail price for it. So what we're looking for are great businesses that, in this overvalued environment, have a fair value. If something suddenly happens in the market and causes a 10 or 15 percent drop, that business goes from having a fair value to being undervalued. Those are the situations we're looking for.
Imagine this: the full retail price of the new Xbox One X console is, I believe, 750 Australian dollars. If you went to EB Games and they were selling that Xbox for a thousand dollars, and now it dropped to 750, you wouldn't be excited about that offer, because it simply went back to its normal price. But if that same store had started at $750 retail and then dropped to $500, that's obviously a much better deal. It's exactly the same with businesses in the stock market.
Quickly, another point from this short clip: Peter Lynch said that if a stock is trading at a huge multiple, it basically has to work, and if it works, you're barely breaking even. Even today, some companies, although they are large, trade at P/E ratios in the hundreds, if not literally in the thousands.
테슬라 같은 회사는 P/E 비율이 1,300 정도라고 생각합니다. 지금 투자자들이 치르는 주가가 앞으로 수년, 아니 수십 년 동안 끊김 없는 성장을 이미 전제하고 있다는 뜻이죠. 주가가 이미 그렇게 말하고 있는 겁니다. 이런 가격에 이런 회사에 투자하면, 얻을 수 있는 건 거의 없고 잃을 수 있는 건 많습니다. 투자자들이 이미 수년간의 완벽함을 기대하고 있으니까요. 완벽한 실행이 전제되어 있는 셈입니다.
피터 린치가 말했듯이, 내가 맞았을 때 얼마를 벌고, 틀렸을 때 얼마를 잃을지를 따져봐야 합니다. 주식을 사기 전에 스스로에게 던져야 할 아주 중요한 질문들이죠. 그리고 여기서 다시 현금흐름할인법(DCF)으로 돌아가, 성장률을 보고 분석하는 회사의 위험과 보상의 관계가 어떤지 판단하게 됩니다.
지금 시장의 단기 전망에 대해 사람들에게 뭐라고 말씀하시나요? 어떤 느낌이 드세요?
저는 성장하는 사업을 사야 합니다. 동전을 던져 보세요. 다음 1,000포인트가 어떻게 될지 저는 전혀 모릅니다. 다음 6,000포인트는 올라갈 겁니다. 그다음 14,000포인트도 올라갈 거고, 그다음 20,000포인트도 올라갈 겁니다. 하지만 다음 1,000포인트가 어떻게 될지는 아무도 모릅니다. 내려갈 수도, 올라갈 수도, 아니면... 아무도 모르죠. 맞춰보려고 애쓰는 것은 쓸모가 없습니다. 10년 뒤에는 기업 이익이 지금보다 높을 겁니다. 20년 뒤에는 훨씬 더 높을 겁니다. 그게 우리가 믿을 수 있는 것입니다.
피터 린치가 이 클립에서 강조하는 세 번째 핵심 단계는 언제나 장기에 집중하라는 것입니다. 다음 주, 다음 달, 심지어 내년에 시장이 어떨지 걱정하지 마세요. 정말 집중해야 할 것은 이 회사가 5년, 10년 뒤에 어떤 모습일지입니다. 항상 장기에 초점을 맞추세요. 그렇게 할 수 있다면 단기 시장 등락은 사실 중요하지 않고, 그것에 대해 전혀 스트레스를 받을 필요가 없습니다.
사실 주가가 내려가면 오히려 설레야 합니다. 겁먹을 필요가 없어요. 피터 린치가 말했듯이, 10년 뒤 기업 이익은 훨씬 높아질 겁니다. 20년 뒤에는 훨씬 더 커질 겁니다. 그것이 우리가 의지해야 할 것입니다. 그래서 저희는 기업들이 계속 나아질 거라고 확신합니다. 다음 1, 2년은 아닐 수도 있어요. 락다운 때 본 것처럼 1, 2년 동안 사업이 타격을 받을 수도 있습니다. 하지만 그래도 괜찮습니다. 저희는 "5년 뒤에는 무슨 일이 생길까? 10년 뒤에는?"이라고 자문하는 상황을 찾기 때문입니다. 그 상황이 유리하다면, 그때 투자합니다.
파생상품에 대한 비판과 그것이 미친 영향에 대해서는 어떻게 보시나요? 저에게는 좀 복잡한 얘기입니다. 제가 아는 건... 여러분의 파생상품에 대해서는 제가 잘 모르겠습니다. 제 수준을 훨씬 넘어서는 얘기입니다. 저는 평생 옵션을 한 번도 사본 적이 없습니다. 주식을 보유하고 있을 때 옵션을 사지 마세요. 3% 계약금을 걸고 선물계약이나 스트래들 같은 것을 하는 것에 대해서도 잘 모릅니다. 제 수준을 훨씬 넘어서는 얘기예요. 저는 그걸 다룰 수 없습니다. 그건 다른 사람에게 맡기세요.
좋습니다. 미국 경제의 미래에 대해 낙관적이시군요. 대부분의 잘 경영되는 기업들의 이익 잠재력은 좋을 겁니다. 하지만 사람들은 2차 세계대전 이후 경기침체가 아홉 번 있었다는 걸 이해해야 합니다. 앞으로도 다른 경기침체가 올 겁니다. 지금 당장은 침체 국면이 아니지만, 앞으로 올 수도 있죠. 그건 걱정하지 마세요. 반드시 올 겁니다. 언제 올지는 아무도 말해줄 수 없습니다. 펀더멘털이 알려주지 않을까요? 아니요, 사후에야 알게 됩니다. 갑자기 주문이 줄고, 가격 경쟁이 치열해지고, 그다음에 이익이 떨어지는 걸 깨닫게 되죠. 대개는 사후에야 알게 됩니다. 아무도 그걸 선언하지 않아요. 5년 동안 다들 경기침체가 온다고 말해왔지만, 실제로는 오지 않았습니다.
만나서 반가웠습니다. 언제든 다시 오시길 바랍니다, 피터.
이번 피터 린치 클립이 정말 좋았습니다. 그냥 너무 복잡할 필요는 없다는 교훈이죠? 이해하지 못하는 것에 발을 들일 필요는 없습니다. 많은 주식 투자자들이 옵션에 집착하는데, 피터 린치는 먼저 손을 들고 "저는 기업에 투자하는 걸 좋아합니다. 옵션에 대해서는 어떻게 되는지 전혀 모릅니다. 평생 옵션을 한 번도 사본 적이 없어요"라고 말합니다.
1단계는 여러분이 이해하는 사업을 찾는 것입니다. 2단계는 적정 가치 이하로 평가되었을 수도 있는, 공정하게 평가된 사업을 찾고 있는지 확인하는 것입니다. 3단계는 장기에 집중하는 것입니다. 부채가 적고 현금흐름이 높은 견고한 사업을 찾고 거기에 집중하세요. 그것이 승리의 공식입니다.
앞으로도 경기침체는 올 겁니다. 과거에도 있었어요. 내일 올 수도, 다음 주에 올 수도, 1년 뒤나 5년 뒤에 올 수도 있습니다. 하지만 핵심은, 여러분이 이해하고 오랫동안 보유할 수 있는 탄탄한 현금흐름을 가진 강한 기업들이 살아남는다는 것입니다. 시장 환경이 어떻든 우리가 극도로 집중해야 할 것이 바로 그런 기업들입니다.
자, 여러분, 이 영상을 즐겨주셨길 바랍니다. 저는 피터 린치가 하는 말을 듣는 게 언제나 즐겁습니다. 이것처럼 아주 오래된 인터뷰라도요. 예를 들어 이건 1997년 것입니다. 그럼에도 그때 시장이 높았고 지금도 높기 때문에, 그가 하는 말은 거의 그대로 오늘날 우리의 투자에 적용됩니다. 저는 그런 식으로 공통점을 찾을 수 있을 때가 정말 좋습니다. 마치 시 같아요.
아무튼 여러분, 영상이 마음에 드셨다면 좋아요 눌러주시고, 아직 구독하지 않으셨다면 채널 구독 부탁드립니다. 제가 어떻게 투자하는지 알고 싶으시다면 아래 설명란의 유익한 링크들도 꼭 확인해 보세요. 피터 린치의 전략에 대한 많은 핵심 포인트를 훨씬 더 자세히, 단계별로 배우고 싶으시다면 주식 분석 입문 과정도 편하게 확인해 주세요.
오늘은 여기까지입니다. 시청해 주셔서 정말 감사합니다. 다음 영상에서 뵙겠습니다.
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