저자: 미상 · 외국인
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공매도가 어려운 이유와 워런 버핏이 공매도를 하지 않는 이유를 설명하는 영상이다. 공매도 원리: 주식을 빌려 판 뒤 주가가 떨어지면 되사서 갚아 차익을 얻는 구조이며, 대차 이자가 발생한다. 버핏의 지적: 실제로는 과대평가된 주식이 저평가된 주식보다 훨씬 많고, 과대평가 종목은 경영진의 주식 발행 등으로 가치가 부풀려지는 경우가 많다. 공매도의 두 가지 어려움: 첫째, 주가 상승 시 손실이 무제한이다. 둘째, 주가가 계속 오르면 추가 증거금(마진콜)을 요구받아 논리가 맞아도 강제청산될 수 있다. 버핏 평가: 과거 공매도 검토 종목의 적중률은 높았지만, 버틸 수 있는 기간이 문제였다. 롱 포지션이 훨씬 수월하다고 본다. 게임스탑 사례: 개미 투자자들의 매수세로 주가가 급등해 헤지펀드들이 숏 포지션을 강제청산해야 했다. 기업 가치가 결국 0이 될 수 있더라도 단기 급등을 버티지 못한 사례다. 결론: 버핏의 첫 번째 투자 원칙인 '돈을 잃지 않는 것'에 공매도는 어긋나므로 그는 공매도를 하지 않는다. 영상 말미 진행자는 자신도 공매도를 하지 않는다고 밝히고, 시청자 경험담을 댓글로 요청했다.
다듬은 글
so you might think it's easier to make money on short selling and all i can say is uh it hasn't been for me i don't think it's been for charlie it is a very very tough business it's an interesting item to study because it's i mean it's ruined a lot of people uh it's it is the sort of thing that you can go broke doing but being short something where your loss is unlimited is quite different than being long something that you've already paid for so short selling it is a topic that has been coming up in the news lately particularly with all that's been going on with gamestop and how a lot of the hedge funds are getting screwed over short selling game stop stock so what we're going to talk about in this video is firstly do a bit of an explainer what short selling is and how it works then we're going to have a look at some advice from the goat on why he actually steers clear of all short selling just does not take part at all now the first step in the process of short selling is that you're going to sell the stock what stock haven't got any well that's because what you're actually going to do is you are going to borrow somebody else's stock in order to sell it now of course the idea behind borrowing means that at some point in the future we're going to have to give back what we borrowed so the idea with short selling is you borrow someone else's shares you sell them then the share price hopefully goes down you're going to then buy them back at a later date for a cheaper price and then return the shares to their owner the owner of the shares doesn't know any different you borrowed 100 apple shares and you gave them back 100 apple shares it's all the same to them but in the process if the stock price falls you would have sold those 100 apple shares for a high price and then bought them back for a really low price so whatever the difference is in the buy in the sale price that's your profit so that's the basic concept of short selling that's how you make money from the stock price going down now the only other basic concept to understand with short selling is that like borrowing anything usually the actual borrowing isn't free to do you know if you borrow money from the bank you have to pay interest same thing from the time that you borrow the shares to the time that you give them back during that period you will also pay interest now as regular old investors what we try and do is we try and buy undervalued stocks right that's our game we are trying to buy shares when they are at a discount when they are on sale when the stock price is below their intrinsic value now in reality most stocks most of the time are not undervalued in fact most of the time most stocks trade at a premium to their intrinsic value so in theory it sounds as though short selling might be a more viable approach than regular old investing here's warren buffett speaking to that point you see way more stocks that are dramatically overvalued in your career than you will see stocks that are dramatically undervalued i mean they're it's the nature of securities markets to occasionally promote various things to the sky so that securities will frequently sell for five or ten times what they're worth and they will very very sell themselves for 20 or 10 percent of what they're worth so therefore you see these much greater discrepancies between price and value uh and on the overvaluation side so you might think it's easier to make money on short selling and all i can say is uh it hasn't been for me i don't think it's been for charlie it is a very very tough business so in reality it's actually a pretty tough business to make money now there are two main reasons for this but i'm going to let warren buffett explain them first and then after he's explained them i'll come back and add a little bit more color it is a very very tough business because of the fact that you face unlimited losses and because of the fact that people that have overvalued stocks very overvalued stocks are frequent frequently on some scale between promoter and crook and that's why they get there and once they're and and they also know how to use that very valuation to bootstrap value into the business because if you have a stock that's selling at 100 that's worth 10 obviously it's to your interest to go out and issue a whole lot of shares and if you do that when you get all through the value can be 50.
in fact there's a lot of chain letter type stock promotions that are sort of based on the implicit assumption that the management will keep doing that and if they do it once and build up the 50 by issuing a lot of shares at 101 it's worth 10 now that now the value is 50 and people say well these guys are so good at that let's pay 200 400 or 300 and then they can do it again and so on it's not usually that quite that clear in their minds but that's that's the basic principle underlying a lot of stock promotions and if you get caught up in one of those that is successful you can you know you can run out of money before the promoter runs out of ideas in the end they are they they almost always work i mean i would say that of the things that we have felt like shorting over the years the batting average is very high in terms of eventual uh they would work out very well eventually if you held them through but it is very painful and it's it's in my experience it's a whole lot easier to make money on on the long side so the first reason why a lot of people end up not making any money when they're short selling is because with short selling there is the potential that you can lose an unlimited amount of money so remember back to that first graphic remember short selling we are borrowing someone's shares we're selling them at a high price hoping that the share price then goes down we buy back the shares to return them to the owner and then we profit the difference well what if the stock doesn't go down what if it goes up remember with short selling you always have to buy back the shares to close your short position to return the borrowed shares back to their owner but there is no limit on how high the share price of any particular company can go thus if you are short selling you're opening yourself up to potentially unlimited losses imagine this you borrow and sell one share of tesla you sell it for a hundred bucks unfortunately though the stock price then goes up to two hundred dollars well already you're a hundred dollars in the red but then the stock price keeps going up to say four hundred dollars now you're three hundred dollars in the red but now the stock price is at eight hundred and fifty dollars if you kept your short position open now you're seven hundred and fifty dollars in the red remember what i was saying just before the last step of short selling you always have to buy back the shares to close your short position there's no limit to how high share prices can go and therefore there is always the possibility of unlimited losses now moving on the other reason why warren buffett explained it's actually quite hard in reality to make money from shorting stocks is because say you've found this stock it costs ten dollars and you just know it's going down like this thing is so expensive it's on such shaky ground it's definitely going down however the ceo who's more like a salesman has actually just decided that because it's so expensive he's going to sell a whole lot of new stocks say 10 million new shares that he just creates out of thin air and he's going to sell them to investors that he has somehow convinced that you know this stock is definitely we're going to keep doing well you know we're going to the moon etc now as i said these shares just get created out of thin air the shares get dumped on the shares pile that grows a little bit but the the company definitely does get all of the funds all of the proceeds from that stock sale so say now investors look at this stock and they go yes it was was ten dollars before but now they just raised a hundred million dollars they got big plans they're going to put that money to use and the business is going to be even better so now we think that the business is worth twenty dollars the stock price goes up to twenty dollars the ceo goes uh great you know i'm going to use this opportunity to raise even more stock at this outrageous price convince some more investors to jump on board now investors think oh it's gonna it's you know they're in an even better position and the process just continues cycling being short something which keeps going up because somebody is promoting it in a half crooked way and you keep losing and they call on you for more margin it just isn't worth it to have that much irritation in your life it isn't that hard to make money somewhere else with less irritation now charlie raises another good point here in that if you are shorting a stock and the stock price is going up the more the stock price goes up the more maintenance margin you're going to have to add into your investing account now because with short selling you're playing around with stocks that you didn't actually own you borrowed there is a risk for the broker that they look at brandon and say geez this stock price just keeps going up i'm not actually sure brandon has the money in his bank account to be able to buy back the shares to return what he borrowed now to limit their risk they may force you to add more money into your investing account into your margin account that's called a margin call and if you are unable to deposit the funds into that account then they can force you to cover your short and close out your position so even if you found a stock that you know is going to zero if it goes from 200 to 400 before it tanks to zero and you can't meet the margin call that you get you can be forced to cover your short even though your thesis was right you can be forced to take a loss even though you were right this is warren buffett talking exactly to that point in the end they they almost always work i mean i would say that of the things that we have felt like shorting over the years the batting average is very high in terms of eventual uh they would work out very well eventually if you held them through but it is very painful and it's it's in my experience it's a whole lot easier to make money on on the long side so there you go even when buffett thinks about short selling you know most of the time well he's got a very high batting average aka most of the time he's right it's more a question of can you maintain your short position for long enough for you to actually profit from being correct and that is exactly what happened with a lot of hedge funds that were shorting game stop a lot of them saw gamestop as you know it's a physical retailer of video games it's a dying business it's gonna go to zero eventually however the redditors on wall street bets were able to spike the share price so much that it forced the hedge funds to close out their short positions they could you know gamestop in the long run it might go to zero you know it very well could go to zero unless they change something drastic about their business model but the reality is is that those hedge funds because the share price spiked up so high they weren't able to stay in the game long enough to see their thesis play out and to profit from it and overall all of these reasons help make up warren buffett's mind and that's why he doesn't get involved in short selling you know in reality it's probably easier to pick a loser than pick a winner but with short selling the fact that there are unlimited losses uh the fact that you have to maintain your short position you might get a margin call the fact that there are phony salesmen out there that can ceos out there that can keep the stock prices insanely high on their businesses just means that in reality it's actually a much harder business to make money than what you might expect and at the end of the day short selling quite simply just violates warren buffett's first rule of investing which is don't lose money you don't ever want to put yourself in a situation where you could lose a lot of money and overall with short selling yeah there's the potential that that might happen so anyway guys i hope you enjoyed this video that is my summary of why warren buffett does not look to be a short seller as well also with the size of his company berkshire hathaway if they're even gonna move move the needle with their short selling they would just have to put like the whole company at stake and that's just something that they would never do but anyway i'd love to hear what you think about short selling personally i don't do it either but maybe you do maybe you've had some experience short selling i'd love to hear from you if you have you know was it did it work out for you did it not work out maybe if you've been someone that's done short selling for a very long period of time let me know like your stats you know have you made money over the long run has it been much more challenging to make money than what you thought let me know down in the comment section below leave a like in the video if you enjoyed check out profitful links down in the description if you're interested in how i go about my investing either passive or active investing but that is it for today thanks very much for watching guys and i'll see you guys next tim
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