저자: RayDalio · 외국인
요약 보기
레이 달리오는 연준이 올해 금리를 인상하지 못할 것이며 인상하지 말아야 한다고 본다. 이미 정책 전환(피벗)이 있었고 그 점은 다행이라고 평가한다. 글로벌 경기는 미국·유럽·중국 전반에서 예상보다 크게 둔화될 가능성이 있다고 진단한다. 향후 약 1년 내에 연준이 완화(대차대조표 활용 가능)를 할 필요가 있을 수도 있다고 언급한다. 유럽은 마이너스 금리와 양적완화 한계로 정책 여력이 제한적이며, 일본도 마찬가지라고 본다. 미국의 재정적자와 총부채는 우려 사항이다. 연금·의료 등 미적립 부채까지 고려하면 충당이 불가능하며, 막대한 국채 발행을 소화할 매수자 문제에 대해 걱정한다. 기축통화국 지위는 축복이면서 동시에 차입 증가로 이어지는 양날의 검이라고 설명한다. 국채 소화 과정에서 환율 하락(달러 약세)이나 소비 둔화 같은 파괴적 결과가 점진적으로 나타날 수 있다고 본다. 투자 운용에서는 경제 방향을 맞히려 하기보다 체계적 편향(레버리지 롱)이 없는 균형 포트폴리오를 구축하는 것이 중요하다고 강조한다. 현재 시장 참여자 대다수가 자산 상승에 레버리지 롱 포지션을 가진 상태라는 점을 위험으로 지적한다. 작년 본인 운용 성과가 약 15% 상승으로 언급되며, 개별 종목·지수에 대한 구체적 매수/매도 권유는 없다.
다듬은 글
welcome back we are coming to you live this week from the world economic Forum here in davo Switzerland more now of my first on Fox conversation with Bridgewater Associates founder and co- Chief investment officer Ray alio here's what he said about the Federal Reserve you have suggested recently you were on with me two months ago and you said the Federal Reserve is not going to be able to raise interest rates you were right that was way before the market actually understood that do you think the FED won't be able to raise rates at all this year I don't think they'll be able raise rates at all I don't think they should raise rates at all and I think um that I'm very glad that they learned okay that there was a change and now a pivot there was a pivot and now we're on a situation where I think they're attuned to those those issues and so I think that that's much better I think you will see a slowing that is more than they would expect and I think it'll be a global slowing because we have to look at ourselves within the context of Europe it's slowing China it's slowing and when those things happening and connected um I think that it's um they they won't ra his rates and it is conceivable that if you were to take another year or so that they might need to ease and that that might be through the balance sheet and then we deal with the question of Europe how does Europe ease when you have a negative interest rate and quantitative easing has limited has already done most of what quantitative easing can do and the same applies to Japan so I think that's the nature of the um the situation but there's a greater now awareness than there was just a few months ago at the fed and other uh central banks it sure is and final question how worried are you about about debt because it seems like this is another issue that we talk about it but there's really not that much of a focus on it but given the budget deficit the overall debt of America the spending we continue to see where's this going yeah um there is there's the debt and then there's the um unfunded liabilities that are like that if you take pension liabilities and you take Health Care liabilities and you do a proor of financial statement on all of those can those be met they cannot be met and then what does concern me is that we that that amount of debt that you're referring to that has to be sold and when I do the calculations of who are the buyers of that I have concerns about that issue so we we've been blessed by being a reserve currency and what happens it's it's a twoed sword uh what you're blessed because when you're a reserve currency you're a stor hold of wealth you know if they want to say where am I going to save I will save in US dollar bonds and so on but when that happens historically that PE that puts puts countries in the positions of being borrowers and greater borrowers and I think that that's our issue so as I so things as they evolve over the next few years we can't take for granted that we're going to be able to sell that debt and fund that that debt without uh disruptive consequences those disruptive consequences can be the depreciation of the exchange rate or the the slowing of our own consumption yeah so I'm con I'm I'm concerned about those things in an evolutionary way in the in the face of all of this you've been investing incredibly effectively you were up almost 15% last year while everybody else was down how do you keep that growth going how do you keep that kind of performance would you put new money to work today in equities I think I think the a few things I want to say about that I think uh the way that we manage money and I think the way people should manage money is that they should say start with what is a balanced account uh if I had no idea what's going to be good or bad what how do I achieve balance in my portfolio um and then that's beta and then there's how do I take bets how do I overweight or underweight certain things and that's Alpha and I would say um what happens is right now we have a leverage long position like everybody has is one directional so um in other words in our particular case there's not such thing as a good year I mean go you know going up or going down is something that matters to us we we want to be not have any systematic biases I think the world is leverage long in other words um everybody's long assets or if you think about employment um and what is a good economy everybody wants everything to go up and so's it central banks and so we make a system in which the credit is put in and interest rates are lowered to maximize that when you start to get to zero interest rates and you have go beyond zero interest rates and you buy assets to make them go up in quanum quantitative easing you start to approach the limits of of that leverage long so I think the important thing is to not have any systematic risk to hold a portfolio in a way that could do equally well regardless of the direction of the economy if growth picks up or declines or inflation picks up or declines and I would say for most investors what that really means is not to try to guess the movements because um they have to compete against professionals and it's tough enough for for professionals but really to know how to create a balanced account so that they're they don't have those systematic biases and that's a whole other conversation maybe we can have someday R alio thank you thank you
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