저자: VijayKedia · 외국인
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결론: 중소형주는 바닥이 가까워졌을 수 있으나 실적 회복까지 시간이 걸리며 당분간 고통이 더 이어질 가능성이 크다. 시장 상황: 지난 1년은 중소형주 투자자에게 끔찍했고, 2019년 말 기준 중소형주 대다수가 약세 구간에 있다. 대형주 위주가 아닌 중소형주에 장기 투자해 온 입장을 유지한다. 바닥과 회복 전망: 바닥은 향후 2~3개월 사이 형성될 수 있으나, 기업 실적은 향후 2~3분기 동안 부진할 전망이다. 대다수 종목은 2016~2018년 고점 가격으로 복귀하는 데 5~10년이 걸릴 것으로 보며, 소수의 우량주만 이전 고점을 회복할 수 있다고 본다. 사이클 관점: 과거 중소형주 침체는 2008~2013년처럼 5~6년간 지속된 사례가 있고, 2018년이 중소형주 고점이었다. 섹터별 순환매가 일어나므로 10년 단위 투자 관점이 필요하다. 포트폴리오 대응: 본인은 매도하지 않고 보유 중이며, 카르나타카뱅크는 1.5년 전 정리했다. 일부 종목은 소량 매도 후 신규 편입을 했고, 최근 에스코츠(500루피 대비 20~30% 상승)와 신규 토지 등을 매수했다. 레버리지 투자는 하지 않는다. 정책·인프라: 정부의 투자 주도 성장 모델 전환과 향후 5년간 100 lakh crore 인프라 투자 계획에 주목하며, 인프라 관련주에 관심이 있으나 살아남은 솔벤트 기업은 많지 않다고 평가한다. 시장 심리: 현재 시장 분위기는 과도하게 베어리시하며, 강세론자를 찾기 어렵다. 법인세 인하와 신규 설비 15% 인센티브 등 정책이 투자를 유도할 것으로 기대한다. 출연자 전망 요약: 중소형주 바닥 근접, 그러나 본격 회복은 장기간 소요.
다듬은 글
it's is all about celebration nasat the Sam really has been a terrible and horrible year but are we in for a nasat will the sambath year the coming saath year be dramatically different or we have for more pain and grind and nothing large should be expected I mean safety and conservation were the two words which made all the difference to your portfolio if you protected if you did not take adventurous bets if you avoided stocks like yes bank or nbfcs or IND it's been okay year but is it time to take risk or is it time to really hide under the shelter of safety with some of the safe stocks so I'm going to bring on board someone who believes that I don't want to buy large cap stocks because large cap stocks do not create Mega wealth he's always gone Against the Grain bought small and midcap stocks which have potential to become large cap stocks vij K join just now VI first of all season greetings and thank you for joining us thank you and gretings to all of you happy last one year has been terrible for midcap investors and it's been horrible for small cap investors how are you managing this volatility how are you managing this kind of a market when large part of your portfolio is midcap and small cap facing you see I remember one thing uh we investors are like uh of movie where he says that so this is what our situation is in the market and having said that I'm doing nothing I'm just staying foot whatever invest Investments I have made in last 2 three years or four years you can say that but why you not selling them I mean are you convinced that whatever stocks you bought some of the stocks we discussed like a repo we've discussed uh you know Karnataka Bank we've discussed some stocks which you own what is giving you the conviction that you still want to stay invested in them if you made an uh you know investment and if you don't like your thesis you can always get out have you altered your portfolio have you cut some stocks I will tell you Karnataka bank I quit long time back maybe last year was one and a half year back okay so whatever uh we have discussed in the past on your channel I am holding all those stocks maybe I have sold little bit little some small portion of some stock to buy some new stocks so this is what I'm doing just to you know pass my time and uh remain uh to keep my mind uh active in the market so I staying put even if I have given another chance I don't think that I will do something different or I will buy some other stock or I will sell these stocks the existing stocks I am I I'm comfortable I'm okay with all those uh you know my portfolio so Anar being small in midcaps right I yes want to specify okay um when do you see recovery coming in for the small and midcaps it it depends because as uh one thing I will tell you in last Diwali I was of the opinion I thought that maybe uh 90% of the stocks in in the market are bangar cap okay now this Diwali I think 95% of the stocks are coming coming into that category so it is very difficult to say when this all these stocks are going to revive okay uh but broadly speaking I think maybe uh in the major or majority of uh good stocks bottom must be there in place uh and but recovery will take some time I don't think it is going to happen uh very soon for the simple matter the bottom in the market may be in place or will be made maybe next 2 months or 3 months but numbers wise companies are going to report uh you know uh not so good numbers for at least next two three quarters but the market in advance so you are saying that the peak of the pessimism hasn't quite hit the uh mid and small caps there's more pain is what is is that what you're saying yeah but it depends on which side of fence you are because it's a large gamut of shares it's 5,000 shares so we are discussing here only about say 200 shares so maybe largely bottom must be in place but it doesn't matter even the bottom is in place let there are two things I will tell you even suppose what is the significance of the bottom if this whatever price you have seen in majority of the stocks whatever price we have seen in 2017 and 18 or 16 most of the stocks are not going to come to that level maybe for next 5 years or 10 years most of the stocks so hardly very few quality stocks are capable of coming back to their previous H but then how do you make a case for this still uh being the most attractive asset class especially for you know investors retail investors who are looking at the broader markets as opportunities given the kind of you know uh collapse we've seen on these midcap and small cap shares in the last couple of years and if you're saying the pain is going to continue for a while how does one convince them that this is still the asset class that will benefit them in the long no because ultimately as we always discuss the stock market you can only make money if you hold the shares for 10 years or for 5 years so you have to keep your horizon little you know further okay um you know last time when we saw a big correction in mid and small cap stocks it started let's say from 2008 2009 and mid and small cap stocks they went into in Sp till 20134 which means mid and small cap stocks they went into a bare market for 5 six years 2018 was the peak for Mid and small cap stocks and this is 2019 end so if I go back the previous cycle and other previous Cycles midcap mid and small cap stocks as an investment cluster could remain in a bare market for another two or 3 years I will reply this differently as you said that there was a bay Market from 9 to 13 and 14 actually I defer you know uh if I look at my investments I got most of the reward for my investment between 2009 and 13 and 14 only so it's a myth that uh and I think most of the hn investor I am small investor forget about me ask you raak junjala and other investors also they must have lot of money between 9 and 13 no no so they bought in nine no they they must have bought in 2003 or 5 or8 okay so because this is what Market moves on rotation the stock which performed between 2002 and 2007 or say 8 did not perform uh between 2008 and 14 so this Market moves on rotation the stock which performed during 2000 during the boom of say 92 to 2000 did not perform at all in between 2003 and 8 so some sectors so depend it is like rotation you no so I don't agree to this that uh ultimately that is why it is said that you should have a 10 years Horizon so ultimately you will get one cycle to recover your money or to make your money so VI as a strategy what is it that you have done in the last 6 months what are the stocks that you've gotten out of and what are the new spaces that you're looking at in last 6 months I have done nothing I have written seven songs and posted on YouTube this is what we'll come to that in just a bit don't worry no but but purely in terms of a market strategy no nothing as I said I did nothing I sold some shares some portions some May 5 10% of my old holding just to you know buy some new shares because I'm fully invested 100% invested since last 30 years so just to pass my time what what is stopping you I remember we had a chat when you said look I bought 100 then 2008 happened it went down to 20 rupees I bought more if you're confident of your portfolio what is stopping you from buying some of your stocks let's say San chemical a 600 rupee stock came down to 300 or Repro it's not gone anywhere or web web it's not corrected I was looking at the chart it's at $800 average has fallen down from my cost price 30% lower okay what is stopping you from increasing your allocation is it liquidity or is it uh you're not convinced no liquidity I am fully convinced if I have 5,000 CR rupes today I will invest in the market right now let me tell you what is stopping you from Raising capital and investing don't raise capital I don't I don't I don't invest with borrowed money I don't do that because then it gives me uh you know headache and the purpose of life is to be happy so I want to live a happy life I don't want that maybe 1 2 3 four 4 5% leverage for the time being that is different otherwise okay let's assume if you could leverage this 5,000 CR rupees where would you allocate that money in the current market wherever I'm already I am having my own Investments maybe I can increase okay just add to your position or maybe I I can buy some some new shares also like like like I have bought again it is again then it will become a recommendation and you know people who whatever stocks we have discussed in the past all are not faired well okay good okay see Market everybody has to understand risk whatever comes on with experts like you we always have this disclosure going which is that please do your homework what you may do will have a different perspective your risk your appetite your time Horizon is different we having a general chat that what you've been up to no so I I would invest in some infrastructure stocks but I will tell you one thing what I have understood I'm watching this government very closely okay and I'm not in the camp who keep on criticizing the every move of this government because if you were having that negative mindset then you will go wrong the best thing in this market is to focus where the focus of the government is what I have understood from the interviews given by this suban our cea chief economic adviser that is government is going to change the model business model in India earlier they were emphasizing on consumer growth model now he's of the opinion that consumer Le growth model is not working in the developing country it is for the developed country so he's putting more emphasis I think on investment Le growth model and they have also announced that government is going to spend 100 lakh crupes in next 5 years on infrastructure so my focus is there but you know my only problem is that and I'm just being a devil's advocate here I need to counter your bullishness here which is that somebody has to take risk in the market right if I look at the balance sheet of most of the corporates either they don't have the appetite or they don't have the willingness for those who have the capital they don't want to take a risk why because taxation structure is high so my question to you is that when the 2003 to 2008 bull market started the tatas and the maharas and the Vantas of the world they took risk I don't see in this downturn too many people are talking about kex leveraging the balance sheet or using low interest rate to build more capacities sentiment is still off if at all everybody's using the word deleveraging and after what's happened to Z SL you know leverage issue most of the corporate guys are saying look it's not worth it leverage I guess will be the last of the cycle when the animal spirits come back yeah but that is a problem in the market certainly that is why we are seeing this Carnage in midcap and in small caps so but we live on optimism right as the government has announced corporate tax cut and plus 15% to the any uh new unit I think all these things will bring some investment into the country so Triumph of optimistic over the years I've interacted with vet's been you got to be bullish when everyone is beish yeah and right now the only Bulls you can find on the street apart from handful of Old Timers is in baz trust me everybody's so beish on the street right now that you know I mean you can't find Bulls on the street and it has become a fashion to be bearish okay so since all you've done is recorded songs and put them up on YouTube one for the markets on Day come on you don't say I don't nobody says no okay since no one does yes please come on one song for the market describing the current market mood F option very good how dides the song end now this is how it ends so start the Sip start the sips stay away from Trading yes of course yes you know I asked raakesh junjala the same question I said Mr Juna you've made your money of wealth by trading and you're telling others not to trade his answer was very nice we'll play it out during the course of the day he says daddy whiskey p so you made your money by trading and you're telling others not to trade and what did you ask K that 6 watch you will know very soon and Katrina ke also got a full line up what is which is one business when we enter to this's conversation you know Diwali is all about Mur piics and if I don't ask you the will not be complete so what is Vijay kya's Murat tip a Murat pick apart from not Trading there is no more I am doing little bit here and there as I said because I don't have money I bought some escorts let me tell you when it was 500 rupees now it has already gone up 20 30% so I have bought some escorts let me tell you and plus it is in public domain also that GMC project I bought some new land laboratory also I bought some so this is what I'm doing some here and there but nothing it's but you're not panicking what I want to understand from you is that a midcap investor like yours in this market you are not panicking are of course not panicking this is the time to learn philosophy so what is your charity pledge then I mean if you're I mean are you looking at creating your lot of donating lot of your we towards charity of course you got two sons before you answer that they watching the show and a grandson they watching the show yeah I have set up one trust let me tell you so I'm doing my own B whatever also learning okay V you wanted to know what's Karina Kapoor saying you just quickly uh play out a teaser and of course you can catch the entire conversation later today what motivates you to work is it Fame is it ego is it money is it success I think it's a lot to do with the fact that you know I'm allowed to do what I want you know I have a nice choice and I have a nice nice life where I can work and do exactly what I want and take time off also and money is there I mean because I think I'm a sensible Cindi there is a little cindy blood in me sensible Cindi is what Karina kapor calls herself any reaction to that the show will play out at 4:30 she's a clear favorite I'm guessing no I also have some marw blood in me a lot of mar blood in me I can so conserve and spend is that the strategy right now the Market don't be uh foolish don't look at the prices and just deploy all your cash in one go yes maybe that is always you know all principles are same they don't change basic principles are always same in the market and again as I as what I am doing I am just focusing where the focus of the government is this is what I'm doing nothing else infrastructure yeah infrastructure and not private private government or just anything to do with infrastructure anything to do but there are hardly few solvent company left in this sector so let's see okay Vijay keep smiling keep singing and hopefully when we chat next it'll be a more positive song in the markets thank you so much for taking the time out and happy the Val once again
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