저자: ShankarSharma·RaamdeoAgrawal · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 두 투자자는 특정 종목·지수의 가격 방향을 예측하지 않고, 품질 기업 선별과 경영진 integrity 검증이 장기 투자의 핵심이라고 강조한다. 포트폴리오 구성: 시장 PER이 약 25~26배로 다소 비싼 상황이라 보유 종목도 비싸 보일 수 있다는 입장. 좋은 기업, 다소 비싼 기업, 고통받는 기업을 섞어 구성하며 좋은 아이디어는 1년에 한두 개 찾기도 어렵지만 불가능하진 않다고 본다. 품질 판단: 품질 기업은 수익성·사업 품질로 정의되나 이를 지속 가능한 포트폴리오로 묶는 것이 어렵다고 설명. 과거 HP·BP 등에서 상승기에 큰 수익을 냈고, 이후 마루티 등 품질 기업도 가격 하락으로 30~40% 손실을 본 사례를 언급. 경영진 평가: 버핏의 세 가지 기준(사업 능력, 열정, 정직성) 중 인도에서는 정직성(integrity)을 먼저 확인해야 한다고 주장. 과거 특정 경영진에 실망한 경험을 근거로 제시. 문화(culture) 적합성 점검도 중요하다고 강조. 시장 조정 경험: 2030년 베테랑도 큰 조정에 흔들렸고, 고객들은 시장 고점에서 투자해 손실을 보는 경우가 많다고 언급. 과거 수익률을 근거로 향후 수익을 보장하기 어렵다는 점을 인정. Shankar Sharma의 입장: 약세론자로 알려진 이유를 비관주의가 아니라 현실주의(realist)라고 설명. 투자는 선형적이지 않고 시장·통화·섹터가 계속 변하므로 상황에 맞춰 대응해야 한다는 크리켓 비유를 듦. 종합: 구체적인 가격 방향이나 목표가 예측은 없고, 장기 관점의 종목 선별 원칙과 시장 과열에 대한 경계가 주된 메시지.
다듬은 글
In fact, let's hear it out from none other than Shankar Sharma, as well as Ramdev Agarwal. I cut up with my colleague Ajay at the PSM and AIF summit to talk about how investors can prepare their portfolios in fear to weather the slowdown. Defining quality is not difficult. I mean, what you say is expense quality.
Okay, so quality is very well defined. The point is, how do you build a reasonable portfolio with only quality companies? It's a big challenge. So, in that challenge, I'm there with all my managers, and kind of portfolios. Any manager making that challenge comes, but in a buy and hold strategy, what happens is that some portion of the portfolio will definitely look expensive because the market is also at 25p multiple.
The Nifty and 26p multiples, the Nifty is not that cheap. So, you can only be related to the market. So, and if you look at it, if you use only p Multiple is a measure of valuation so clearly you are you are in a slightly expensive market right now so your portfolio will also look expensive how do you how do you find the incremental ideas and particularly if you are trading a lot I mean 30 40 50 at 60 if you are trading then it becomes very difficult to find enough good ideas at a reasonable price but if you are looking for one or two ideas in a year it is not a it is not impossible it is difficult but it is definitely not impossible to find one or two ideas and and and some places what happens is that you have the convey market not have convey so the multiple is crushing and if the quality is there then you have two kinds of opportunity also like I remember in say in HP and BP we made trimendous amounts of money on the way up and then from what amount of money ever last I think 18 20 months there all quality companies or Maruti all these companies I mean and there we lost almost 30 40 per market cap but the quality was not an issue it was just the price falls and the same set of stocks are doing very well right now so the portfolios are built up of a mix of good companies little expensive and some companies which are suffering also and some ideas will come we will be hopefully fully reasonable also talk to us a little bit about because a lot of you know audience sitting over here portfolio manager setting up their company them selves and investors them selves how do you assess the quality of management and how do you start forming a firm opinion of the management tracking the data they release every quarter over the years and meeting them at different intervals tell us may be some Example of some of the managements, you have formed an opinion about over years, so it is the most difficult part of assessing quality, where we go to range most of the time because the table research on profitability is part of it, or the quality of business.
Typically at least I am not bad at that count of it, but I have a gun, rapidly range in assassination. Basically, C. Buffett says you have to look at three things in management. One, Compton is he is good at what business is doing. Second, does he have energy and passion to take it forward? I mean, does he want to make it 10 x 100 x 1000 x what ever.
And third, Buffett says, third is check the integrity. If there is no integrity, there is no point in having the first two. I think in India, you have to just reverse the process. First, go and check the integrity only because in India, every body is coming as a first generation. Entrepreneur energy and a compete is there that's why they are in the business it's a highly competitive market so you don't worry about the compete and passion just worry about the integrity if he is clear and very few will clear the check now so you have to check the integrity and many times what happens is like more recent example a like say man pass I mean we we encounter disappointment of situation so what happened we we got lid by the consumer opportunity in that space and we thought that we will be able to pass through and we know that it is not a prestige management so now what I am realizing is that the moment you realize that it is not a prestige management how much opportunity is there multi bagging this that just run from there I mean Earlia in financial technologies I can I become myself once button again second time I Went so you know this is a bigger market for fast growing consumer space and where is this growth rate this is big what you call but learning from some or feline they but empen yum ng through this at absolutely state okay what is hurting me and so it's no I am not missing words I am telling you the names so what really happens so it is the integrity and what happens it is not that you know that he is Narayan Murthy it did not happen brother we thought he was Narayan Murthy and it turned out to be no donkey so we are right from picnic but then you know the opportunity I mean some guy is doing 1000 crores of Mangola and he is saying that I will do I will spread Mangola all over the country I mean that Mango sap so we said I mean if you can do 20000 crores 3 4000 crores worth of Mango sap and what ever so I think you will become a brand in any In case you know because you are in such a great mood of being a candidate Allow me to ask you one more candidate question If behavioral you no indication of finance Any benchmark before that Let me just tell you Let me complete your first question You [appreciation] CC Inspired by my mistakes I am doing this way We study only on this Okay so we have some early thing One of the thing which is very ignorant and very well practiced in America by the big guy like Buffett and all is the culture check Okay you know like when we hire an employee we do a culture check whether your culture will fit in to my organization Because it is like a figuring out whether the soil is good enough for the plant You are planting a new plant The cow must be very good The plant must be very healthy But the soil is not good It will not work for the soil as well as for The guy so we do that but not buying the stocks we don't do that deep a culture check which is even more of what you call an abstract than figuring out the qualities of management so a but the deep investors and the very long term large investors they do look at the culture I am sure Bharat bhai will have a lot more to do on that he reads these kinds of books I am reading for the first time so okay but so culture check is extremely important we will publish the paper in the next one and a half month it will be very interesting so if we had gone back into the culture of understanding how he has evolved first how many badassery did he do first how many lawsuits did he have I think we would have been better off so I think that's the first part oh so the question I wanted to ask you was that in the last one and a half years of correction a Bharat bhai also say it was it was quite some correction ok 2030 year plus kind of veteran also got shaken in to a large extent and we heard some of the comments coming from you as well tell us how shaking you at one point in time we saw that you also through in the hat saying that never seen such a correction in the market tell us some just sated by the leader I feel pain only for the clients ok because clients come in big holds only at the end at the top of the market they come and when you meet them say something judge gun from ₹ to ₹ now most the money has come between 25 to 30 shar ok and now when the market corrects to 20 from 30 it comes to 20 and 22 all of them are in losses and see when we went and sold so every buddy ask what do you expect of market and what will happen This product which I am buying so what do you expect it to double in five years this happened when I went to Ahmedabad one of the distributor he asked sir you said that it will double in five years in three years to abhi utna utna hi khada hua hai toh aap do you think that in next two it will double now sitting before 30 40 guys to find a nice answer I said if you look back five years it is double okay so so I am not guaranteed again for two years but in next five years it will again double so again it is in the hook so he gives me money okay Shankar let me come to you now you know you like to look for opportunity in the mid and small caps you had some great buy calls in auto space in the recent times set one and half two years back you like to buy global stocks then why is it that you have some how got the reputation of the big bears of the market there are two Answers to that first answer is that when I see a bear market I see it other people talk about it in the bathroom you know such conferences baad niklenge na to bahar mein bathroom me yaar bahut market bahut bad hai idhar mein baat nahi karne apna nature hai bachpan se thoda sa zyada not missing upfront tha abhi hai to hai yaano so it's both being an optimist and a pessimist it's just being a realist and the other thing is also remember that investing is never a linear game you know markets change countries change currencies change sectors change everything changes and if you want to look at a team of in in cricket you have two batsmen one batsman plays the same game or respect the game what the pitch second batsman will play the game according to the pitch and the situation of the game and the format of the game who is the batsman you are going to bet on who is the batsman you are going to bet on The second one is right because you can just go and throw your bat at everything hope the things will be fine hopefully it will be true hope it will not swing and turn that is a very childish way of investing and playing cricket what ever it is
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