저자: DanTapiero · 외국인
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ETF 승인 후 비트코인 가격은 30k→60k(기대 반영)→70k(실제 ETF 매수)로 움직였고, 현재는 차익실현·레버리지 청산 조정 중이라고 봄. 연내 Q4 상승과 12월~1월 자금 유입을 기대. 암호화폐 시장 총시가총액 약 3조 달러 언급. 다만 장기 펀드 운용 난이도와 투기적 참여자 문제를 지적. 영상 말미 자막은 다른 기사(BTC 7월 하락 전망, 마운트곡스 상환 압력, 폴리마켓 대선 베팅) 낭독 내용이 섞임.
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um I also think it look it's important to really get that last summer we were at 30,000 and Larry Finn came out and said okay crypto is an important and Bitcoin is an important uh Global asset and he'd been saying for two years it was a fraud it was for fraudsters and money launders and he changed his opinion um and he said oh in fact I'm going to be coming out with an ETF Jacki and we Dan tapiro delves into the future of crypto explore topics like real world assets corporate balance sheets Equity investors mean coins and bold predictions for Bitcoin Co and the broader crypto market so the move from 30 to 60 if we want to just talk about price and markets was the discounting of the entry of the opening of the ETF on January 11 so you got all the price action beforehand you then had this move from 60 to 70 which was the actual ETF purchasing and then you know it's taking arrest now and so what will continue to happen in my my view is that you will have continued uh uh acrel of uh positive data points and the market you know is absorbing selling all the people who bought it 20 25 30,000 those people who want to take profit they're they're doing that now um and the people who bought up at 70 on Leverage they're also getting panicked out and it would be nice if I see the greed and fear indicator at 46 today I it' be nice to see that down in the 20s I give me a 20s yeah give it 20s have it there for a few weeks have people like you know thinking that uh that was it it's got to be over it's got to be over in their minds yeah get through you know July and August dolam September and then my guess is that we have our Q4 you know Run for the Roses uh again in December January we get the ramp and the inflow and it be some new information you know maybe maybe Trump comes in and actually does some positive things could you imagine that that would be crazy as opposed to just saying things maybe you know maybe there is a Sana ETF maybe you know the space is innovating in a in in a very fast way you've got things like Bitcoin ordinals did not exist you're there's constant innovation in defi I know people complain that the tokens are down from their um you know from their uh TGs and you know there was a bit of a pump earlier in the the year but the reality is there's over $3 trillion now in total value in the space that's all the cryptocurrencies uh added up in Value Plus all the equity your 2.25 uh in the cryptocurrency probably another 800 to a billion a trillion maybe more in the equity so three trillion like that's that's great Bitcoin Teeters on the edge of closing June with a monthly loss and clinging to the critical $660,000 support level unfortunately for the Bulls the BTC pair might be headed for rougher Waters with a series of bearish indicators pointing towards increased selling pressure in July one of the most significant bearish events in the cryptocurrency market in June was related to the long awaited mgx repayments mgx once the largest Bitcoin exchange will repay 140,000 BTC worth around $9 billion to its creditors starting in early July 2024 this repayment follows a decade long wait after the exchange's collapse in 2014 that led to the loss of over 850,000 BTC the impending distribution has raised concerns about increased selling pressure on the market with analysts predicting a significant drop in Bitcoin prices due to creditors potential to sell their received assets to realize profits especially given bitcoin's 16,000 per price appreciation since the hack for instance Chief Morgan analysts led by nicoo pager Soo point out out that recent behavior from gmany creditors who likely liquidated part of the $2.18 billion in Bitcoin following G's May 29 announcement supports this bearish argument for instance analyst deun kid anticipates bitcoin's price to drop toward $555,000 amid the made GX rep payment in July Al bit being optimistic about the overall Market Outlook a significant number of Bitcoin investors May lock in profits at current price levels anticipating that the market may be reaching its peak for instance the 30-day average of bitcoin's adjusted spent output profit ratio which assesses the overall profit and loss of Bitcoin transactions has increased from 1 to 1.03 since May a reading over one indicates more investors are selling at a profit and has coincided with Market top formations in the past has shown below the 4-Hour Bitcoin chart meanwhile is painting a possible breakdown of a bull pennant a pattern that develops when the price consolidates inside of triangle-shaped pattern following a strong move downward it resolves when the price breaks decisively below the lower trend line and Falls to level at length equal to the height of the previous uptrend applying the same technical rule on bitcoin's 4-Hour chart brings the cryptocurrency's deepest price target for July at around $56,000 a max pain scenario I think we all do I think FTX cleared out a lot of sort of Bad actors and but there's still still Bad actors out there the space is like as I always say it's like you know the people who went uh West in search of gold in you know 1848 uh you know it's kind of a rough Bunch those those gold miners you know that the Gold Rush uh you know people did all sorts of things uh to get the gold and it's sort of similar you have it there are a lot of people getting really wealthy really quickly so that attracts a certain type of personality but there's also huge value here um real Innovation um and I think we just you know it's just the market cycle we had our bare phas we blew people out all of last year the market crept up and now we hit a high earlier in the year and now we're going to consolidate and blow out all the people who came late it's just a normal bull f i really faced all of those different problems of you know how one manages the risk of a portfolio how does one manage the investor base setting expectations I mean we have a 10-year life fund not because I really want to have a 10year life fund I did it because it it really is the best way to lock the investors in so that they don't panic in bare phases which many investors do many people do I don't think generally people in the space or outside of the space either understand just how difficult it is uh uh to manage money here over time anybody can make a 50x on one bet you know uh as you call it a YOLO a YOLO bet and whatever um but over time without like a process and without a track record and without some sort of methodology for valuation you just you're not going to make it like through two or three different Cycles it's just too hard I mean much harder than anything in the traditional world like bonds or currencies or stock I mean nothing nothing trades like this but on the other hand the Innovation and potential for growth and profit there's nothing like this and I've never seen anything like it either so decentralized predictions platform poly Market hit $100 million in monthly trading volume in June as punters up their Stakes on how they think the United States presidential election will play out at the time of writing there is $23.3 Million worth of bets in presidential election winner 2024 which consists of individual yes or no bets across 17 prediction markets former president Donald Trump is currently the favorite with 62% odds that he will win the US election with a total of $24.7 million in bets for and against him incumbent President Joe Biden is second with $23.9 million in bets on whether he will secure another term those odds however have fallen from 34% to 21% since his lackluster performance in the first presidential debate on June 28 meanwhile odds for Democrats Gavin Newsome Kamala Harris and Michelle Obama spiked as some political commentators questioned whether Biden should drop out of the presidential race Biden's recent debate performance has also led to a spike in yes bets on Biden drops out of presidential race and Biden Drops Out by July 4 markets which now at 43% and 9% respectively over $10 million in bets have been placed in those markets millions of dollars have also been bet on whether American rapper Kenny West and crypt skeptic Elizabeth Warren could win the presidency but those markets show a less than 1% chance at this stage poly Market which runs on ethereum side cane polygon saw $19.9 million in trading volume in June its first time crossing the $100 million Mark according to a dune analytics dashboard trading volumes between January and may hovered between $ 38.9 million and $63 million which marked a 620 increase from the previous 5 months of August to December 2023
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