저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
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비트코인은 반감기 이후 과거 세 차례 사이클에서 12~18개월 동안 큰 상승을 보였고, 3차 사이클은 약 40배 이상 올랐다는 데이터를 제시한다. 현물 ETF 승인으로 기관 수요가 커져 비트코인이 금을 대체하고 거래 수단으로 쓰일 수 있다고 주장한다. 달러 가치 하락 우려도 상승 근거로 든다. 자막 후반부는 고래 지갑 매집을 근거로 단기 강세 전망을 덧붙인다. 블랙박스식 예측이 아니라 평균 수익률 계산을 예시로 든 것이라고 단서를 달았다.
다듬은 글
look at the pattern of Bitcoin after a having the having is where just for folks that don't know the way that Bitcoins are created is by solving these complex mathematical algorithms that take a lot of time and energy and and money and when you solve it you get rewarded with some number of Bitcoin and roughly every four years that reward gets cut in half it's called a having wait a minute everyone we all agree that the crypto Market never sleeps but with countless newsletters out there there how do you choose the best one for you Bitcoin zela stands out with its Simplicity and Clarity we've crafted an experience that anyone can dive into whether you're a crypto expert or just a new to the crypto world now guess who keeps his eye on us the author of bestselling book Rich Dad Poor Dad Robert kosaki and we want to take this opportunity and thank all the people who trusted us and we read every comment and the best part it's free subscribing now means you will get all new information for free don't just follow the trends stay ahead of them subscribe to bitcoin Zella today and enjoy the new Edge in today's video Chim palah happa talks about the Bitcoin having events and shares some important data about the last three having cycles and how they affected the Bitcoin price chanth also gives us what we can expect on the previous having in April and what will Bitcoin do on the coming months so without wasting anytime let's dive into the video this week I saw somebody who reminded me all of this and I just want to give this guy a proper shout out so his name is Wes kasaris and Wes in Silicon Valley I would say really was Agent Zero of Bitcoin he was the one in 2010 that introduced it to me I remember he reminded me of the story actually we were at Warren hummus and he's like he's Argentinian he's a GRE so I'm gonna try to copy he's like you have to buy the Bitcoin so I heard the story I fell in love with it I remember I called my family office I'm like buy me a million of these things and he was like or a million dollars and he was like are you crazy and I was like no this just a little appetizer we'll get to the main main course anyways he has done a phenomenal job of understanding and prosing Bitcoin I want to thank him because he really put me on to this but he mentioned something to me when I saw him a couple days ago which is you should really look at the pattern of Bitcoin after a having and so I was really curious and so I had a guy on my team Quinton put this together so Nick let me just let's go to the first page so why is this interesting so here's a little bitcoin price analysis for you guys so there's been a couple of having cycles that have happened and I asked him to go back and look at the price performance one month after a having 3 months 6 months 9 months 12 months and 18 months after a having and what you notice is that there are these moments initially where essentially when you go through a Bitcoin having people are sort of reassessing what's happening and they're trying to figure it out that's sort of what I would say is happens in the first month and roughly what also happens in the first three months but then within 6 months to a year and 18 months of these things there are these crazy price appreciation cycles that happen so that's what this page shows which is you know 18 months after the first having the Bitcoin price returned 45x after the second having it returned almost 28x and after this third having it returned almost in adex which is really incredible returns in such a short period of time on Monday NSA whistleblower Edward sowden once again expressed his support for Bitcoin BTC snowden's statement came in the wake of a significant Market disruption that saw Berkshire hathway shares plummet by 99% due to a technical glitch on the New York Stock Exchange in YC this incident has reignited discussions about the robustness and reliability of traditional Financial systems versus decentralized Alternatives among the affected Securities shares a burshire hathway Warren Buffett's stored Investment Company and peric gold a major mining group experienced dramatic and erroneous declines of around 99% in value birkshire hathway shares which typically traded more than $622,000 dropped precipitously to just $18 $5 due to the glitch this erroneous pricing was later corrected in response to this event Edward Snowden took kex simply stating Bitcoin fixes this snowden's tur comment underscores his belief in the advantages of decentralized financial systems over traditional centralized exchanges Bitcoin as a decentralized digital currency operates on a peer-to-peer Network without a central Authority this structure contrasts sharply with traditional stock exchanges where centralized control can lead to systemic risks such as those demonstrated by the recent no glitch the design of Bitcoin aims to ensure transparency immutability and security reducing the potential for such catastrophic failures due to technical issues or centralized errors Stone's endorsement of Bitcoin in this context highlights the cryptocurrency's resilience against the vulnerabilities that can play traditional Financial systems by pointing out that Bitcoin fixes this Snowden implies that btc's decentralized nature could potentially prevent similar disruptions in the financial system offering a more reliable alternative to traditional trading platforms notably Bitcoin boasts an uptime of 99.98% since its Inception this remarkable level of reliability is a testament to the robustness of its underlying blockchain technology there have been only two incidents in btc's early days the first in 2010 known as the value overflow incident where a bug created billions of BTC out of thin air and the second in 2013 involving a temporary blockchain Fork caused by an incompatible software upgrade both incidents were swiftly addressed by the core developers reinforcing bitcoin's resilience if you go to the next page and so if you if you graph that this is what it starts to show which is what is this price performance after each of these having Cycles now why is that interesting well it's interesting because on top of this having which theoretically if history is a guide we should see some price appreciation obviously the other thing that's happened is we've commercialized Bitcoin and we talked about this sort of as my big prediction for 2024 which is these ETFs are really going to allow Bitcoin to cross the chasm and have its sort of Central Key moment right and so if you apply the averages and again these are just averages they're by no means predictions okay so I just want to qualify that we took these and we applied it to the price of Bitcoin and if you go to the next page you start to see what could happen if you just take the average of the last few Cycles so because the first cycle was so extreme and you start to so you're just doing cycle two and three here to be clear just the averages of cycle 2 and three and what you start to see is some really meaningful appreciation and when I talked to Wes about this how he explained it which I which makes a lot of sense to me is there are a lot of countries that will never look at Bitcoin credibly even if they support it the US may be one of those but there is an increasing body of countries that will become dual currency and they will look at their local currency and then they will look at Bitcoin and they will say both of these two things are needed one when you're transacting on a daily basis for random goods and services and two when you need to buy a permanent asset that needs to have residual value you'll use something like BTC and I think that's a very powerful concept and if you look at what this price chart could indicate is that if this thing starts to get to these levels of appreciation it is going to completely replace gold and start to become something that has transactional utility for hard assets and I think if you marry that with this worry that some folks have about dollar debasement you start to see some really interesting opportunities the consistent accumulation of Bitcoin by Wales suggests a bullish outlook for the assets price in the coming month large holders continue to buy and hold significant amounts of Bitcoin reducing the available Supply on the market the decreased supply combined with steady demand from institutional investors due to ETF approvals and Retail buying pressure from short-term holders creates upward pressure on the price bitcoin's price could stabilize or even increase if the current accumulation Trend continues whales are demonstrating confidence by holding their positions the chart from crypto quent shows that wallets holding between 100 to 10,000 BTC have consistently accumulated and reached new all-time highs in Supply held despite minor fluctuations and occasional profit taking during Peak prices these medium-sized folders keep adding to their Bitcoin Stacks this accumulation pattern indicates a strong belief in bitcoin's future value among whales as they continue to buy more BTC even during Market volatility and do not forget to subscribe to bitcoin Cella the most important news will reach your inbox on a daily basis and for free I do not know why you have not subscribed yet if you like the video give it a thumbs up and subscribe for more daily updates remember knowledge is power and we're here to empower you on your financial Journey until next time happy investing for
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