저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
마이클 버리가 닷컴 버블 붕괴 후 주택시장 이상 징후를 발견하고, 서브프라임 대출 구조(티저금리, 잦은 재융자, 연체율 상승)를 분석해 MBS에 대한 CDS 베팅으로 2008년 위기에 대응했다는 과거 사례 설명. 현재 자산에 대한 가격 예측 발언은 없음.
다듬은 글
if you are subscribed to this channel then you know exactly how Michael bur shorted the housing market but have you ever wondered how exactly Michael bur figured out the potential crash that made him millions in a previous video we explained how he left the medical field and became a Wall Street investor Michael bur started Scion Capital during theom bubble right around the time when it was bursting when the dotcom Bubble Burst Michael bu noticed some irregularities in the real estate market his market analysis showed that whatever was happening in the market right after the bubble was not normal Market behavior during the dot bubble tech stocks were suffering at the time San Jose was the tech capital of the world if technology stocks were suffering it should have created a ripple effect and impacted other sectors as well but while tech stocks were going down housing prices and places like San Jose continued to rise this struck Michael bur as odd because typically a significant economic event like the bursting of a bubble would affect all related markets including housing this inconsistency in the real estate market made him more Curious so he started digging deeper first he looked into the stocks of home builders and companies that insured home mortgages he noticed that despite the broader economic downturn these companies were still thriving which did not make sense to him his next step was to understand why the housing market was booming in despite the economic downturn he found out that the growth in the housing market was fueled by mortgage lenders who were giving out easy loans these lenders were extending loans to almost anyone regardless of their ability to repay this lending practice led to a surge in demand for housing driving prices higher he figured out the root cause of the rising real estate market was the irrational behavior of mortgage lenders according to bur The Lending standard was the declined and it hit a rock bottom as the banks were giving out interest only negatively amortising adjustable rates sub Prime mortgages which meant the borrower was given the option of paying nothing at all and rolling whatever interest they owed to the bank into a higher principal balance bur knew that only people who had no income would be interested in taking such loans but he couldn't understand why the lenders were lending to such risky people thus he focused on the lenders saying what you want to watch are the lenders not the borrowers the borrowers will always be willing to take a great deal for themselves it's up to the lenders to show restraint and not to lend to such people he knew that this could not continue indefinitely how much could lenders lend to undeserving people at one point this had to stop also at the time people believed that the demand for housing would keep Rising so they thought borrowing to buy a house would always be a safe bet but Michael bur knew that the demand for housing would go away if people no longer believed that prices would keep rising to confirm his suspicions burry began analyzing mortgage back Securities MBS were the financial products made by bundling lots of Home Loans together and then they were sold to investors Michael bu buried himself in learning about the bond market he studied how exactly these subprime mortgage bonds worked he understood that the large number of loans were arranged in layers according to the behavior of the borrower when the bonds were arranged they were given ratings by rating agencies like Moody and S&P 500 Each Bond was made up of around 130 pages Michael bur read hundreds of these bonds at the time only the lawyers who drafted those bonds had read them and the second person was Michael bur he examined the individual loans Within These MBS and found that many of them were subprime mortgages subprime mortgages are loans given to borrowers with poor credit histories who are more likely to default on their loans bur noticed several troubling patterns in these subprime loans one of the main troubling patterns was the teaser rate a teaser rate was an initial low interest rate on a mortgage that lasts for a short period typically 2 to 5 years after this period the rate resets to a higher rate for example imagine Jon takes out a subprime mortgage with a teaser rate for the first 2 years his interest rate is 2% which makes his monthly mortgage payment $1,000 this low rate makes the mortgage affordable for JN even though he has a poor credit history however after 2 years the teaser rate period ends and the interest rate resets or Rises to 8% now Jon's monthly mortgage payment jumps to $1,600 since Jon's income hasn't increased he struggles to make the higher payments and eventually defaults on the loan the real impact of teaser rates was that it attracted risky borrowers for low initial payments but many of these borrowers could not afford the payments once the rates were reset this led to a wave of defaults contributing to the housing market collapse another troubling Factor he found was the frequent refinancing many subprime borrowers were refinancing their homes frequently often to take cash out as home prices house this Behavior suggested that these borrowers were relying on the continued increase in home prices to avoid default for example Sarah buys a house for $200,000 and makes a down payment of $220,000 and takes a mortgage of $18,000 at an initial interest rate of 6% resulting in a monthly payment of $1,080 over the next few years the value of Sarah's house increases to $250,000 due to a strong strong housing market and she has paid down her mortgage to $170,000 when mortgage interest rates drop to 4% Sarah sees an opportunity to reduce her monthly payments by refinancing so she refinances her home for the first time and takes out a new mortgage for the remaining balance of $170,000 at the new interest rate of 4% this new mortgage reduces her monthly payment to $810 saving her $270 each month a few more years pass and Sarah finds herself needing extra cash for Home Improvements or to pay off other debts her home's value has remained at $250,000 and by now she owes $160,000 on her mortgage now Sarah decides to refinance the house again but this time she does a Cash out refinance so she takes out a new mortgage of $210,000 uses $160,000 to pay off her existing mortgage and takes $50,000 in cash her new mortgage at the 4% interest rate results in a monthly payment of approximately $11,000 Which is higher than her previous payment but it also provides her with $50,000 in cash for her needs before the 2008 crisis because of rising home prices people used to refinance their homes frequently to get the benefit of lower interest rates this strategy of frequent refinancing worked well as long as home prices were Rising however when home prices started to fall then the issue started many homeowners ended up owing more on their mortgages than their homes were worth for example if Sarah's home value fell to $180,000 but she owed $210,000 she couldn't refinance because lenders wouldn't issue a mortgage above the home's value so without the ability to refinance homeowners faced higher payments from interest rate resets which they couldn't pay and it resulted in increased defaults after analyzing those bonds bur's first major clue came from the default rates on these subprime loans the default rates were Rising even before the teaser rates reset this was alarming because it indicated that even though there were favorable conditions borrowers were already struggling to make payments on these loans this early rise in default suggested that the underlying Financial Health of these Borrowers was much worse than the market realized after knowing thoroughly about the mortgage bond market bur decided to bet against the subprime mortgage Market he found a method called credit default swaps to bet against these bonds they were essentially insurance policies against the default of MBS to understand how exactly these credit default swaps work you should watch this video This is how Michael bur figured out about the potential crash in the housing market and implementing his strategy was the real issue as it required immense patience he faced a lot of criticism from his investors and partners Michael bur's bold decision to ignore them and go against the market has made Millions for him and his investors his story tells us the importance of thorough research and the courage to stand by one's convictions in the face of widespread skepticism we have explained all the difficult terms about the 2008 crisis and The Big Short movie in this playlist make sure you watch it and subscribe
Comments 0