저자: 미상 · 외국인
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결론: 채널 주인은 인플레이션보다 디플레이션과 경기침체가 다가오고 있으며 주식은 추가로 약 20% 더 하락할 수 있다고 주장한다. 인플레이션 분석: 미국 9월 CPI는 전월비 0.4%, 전년비 8.2%로 예상보다 높았고, 근원 CPI는 전년비 6.6%로 40년 최고치다. 주거비가 끈끈한 인플레이션의 원인이며, 근본 원인은 과도한 통화 공급과 긴축적 에너지 정책이라고 한다. 주식 전망: 제이피모건 CEO 제이미 다이먼은 S&P500이 추가로 약 20% 하락해 약 2,900선까지 갈 수 있다고 봤다. 연초 대비 S&P500은 25% 하락했고, 다음 20% 하락은 첫 번째보다 더 고통스러울 것이라고 언급했다. 고점에서 소매 투자자들은 반도체주를 순매수하고 있어 바닥 확인은 아직이라고 주장한다. 금리·경기 전망: 6~9개월 내 미국 경기침체가 유력하며, 연준이 긴축을 계속해 경기를 깊은 침체로 몰아갈 수 있다고 본다. 원자재 전망: 경기침체 시 원유(브렌트)는 현재 약 94.70달러에서 37% 하락해 약 60달러까지 갈 수 있다는 시나리오를 소개한다. 금도 1,300달러까지 하락할 수 있다고 주장한다. 리스크: 패닉과 금융 균열은 신용시장, ETF, 특정 국가 등에서 나타날 수 있다고 본다. 디플레이션이 다음 단계라는 주장. 출연자 전망: 진행자는 디플레이션과 침체, 주식 추가 하락을 예상한다. 인용된 외부 전문가로는 제이미 다이먼(하락 20% 전망), 마이클 트란 팀(유가 60달러 시나리오)이 있다. 영상 후반부는 저자 홍보 내용이 중심이다.
다듬은 글
Michael burry and Jamie dimon were right the stock market will crash another 20 from here not because of inflation U.S consumer inflation again turned out hotter than expected in September dashing hopes for a Slowdown that might persuade the Federal Reserve to stop raising interest rates the Consumer Price Index Rose 0.4 percent since August and was up 8.2 percent on the Year this is the seventh straight month that we have eight percent and above inflation number in this video I will let you know what's the real problem with inflation why inflation will remain sticky for the rest of this year why the bond market believes inflation has peaked the biggest risk in the market is deflation not inflation moving forward and why I believe oil price could fall to sixty dollars next year and gold price could fall to thirteen hundred dollars I will explain it all right after this and of course smash the like button if you want to be my good boy apply to write your first book with me welcome back to the macro economy stock spawns and commodity markets if you like any of these markets you are intelligent that's why you're here and you know what to do and push my button if you like what you see in today's video because I can't push it from this side this video is brought to you by my patreon if you are a sweet boy go to patreon.com magical goddess Cheryl to support all my work if you want to be my good boy apply to write your first book with me author of best-selling books goddess Cheryl my good boys always obey and they always get rewarded handsomely have you been a good boy you will get the encouragement you need on your author Journey stripping out of food and energy core prices Rose by 0.6 percent for a second straight month indicating Broad and sustained inflationary pressure across the economy in annual terms the core CPI accelerated to a new 40-year all-time high of 6.6 percent from 6.3 percent in August increases in the shelter food and medical care prices were the largest of many contributors in September as such analysts warned that the battle against the worst inflation in a generation is far from over not least since gasoline prices which depressed the September print have since started to rise again against a backdrop of a looming crude output cut by OPEC plus and its allies so we can expect October number to increase in terms of the energy portion the reason why inflation is sticky is because rent prices are high for at least a year coming out of a everything bubble in 2021 remember in 2020 a lot of landlords didn't get their rent payments for a year because of the whole situation and they are not allowed to put tenants on the street so they had to raise the rent in 2021 and Beyond to cover those losses thus the rent inflation is sticky the real problem with inflation is too much money was pumped into the economy and we have too constrictive energy policy those are the real factors that caused it then that has been supply chain dislocations and by the war in Ukraine however inflation is not really the biggest risk in the market right now inflation is not scary at all inflation gives people the mindset of I need to buy it today or tomorrow it will go up in price again kind of like the fomo effect is back we can see it from the Globex indeed by the dip sentiment remains strong individual investors purchased a net 812 million dollars in chip stocks over the past five trading sessions an amount that was 28 more than this year's weekly average of 636 million dollars retail investors seen as contrarian Market participants kept buying chip stocks even in the face of disappointing developments over the past two weeks a retail capitulation in this strongly favored sector would give us greater conviction that were near a broad Market bottom we keep waiting this just shows we still have more to fall because when the FED see this CPI number they will have to keep on raising rates to continue quantitative tightening to push this economy into a deep recession the stock market could get a lot more painful as a recession is likely to hit the U.S economy over the next six to nine months JPMorgan CEO Jamie dimon he said he sees the stock market falling another easy 20 percent which would put the S P 500 right around 2 900.
it really depends if the economy sees a soft or hard Landing but it could be another easy 20 percent and I think the next 20 percent will be much more painful than the first the S P 500 has fallen 25 percent year to date as investors grapple with elevated inflation and fast rising interest rates most importantly it's Russia's war against Ukraine that is most unsettling to markets and poses a great risk you saw what the guild markets here you see the lack of liquidity in a lot of the markets the ultimate panic and financial cracks to the system are likely to be found in credit markets it might be ETFs it might be a country it might be something we don't suspect now I will explain why oil and gold will crash oil could plunge to just sixty dollars a barrel if there's a deep recession next year oil prices could tumble to sixty dollars a barrel next year if a deep recession leads to demand destruction a significant slowdown in economic growth leads to Brent crude falling 37 percent from its current 94.70 level it's a weak demand story a team of strategists led by Michael Tran said in a recent research note laying out their bear case scenario macroeconomic drivers include stickier than expected inflation wrecking havoc on consumer demand to China's reluctance to Pivot from consumption hindering World crisis policies to a Fed overreach by moving fast and breaking things they continued such macro threats are realized and led to a recession like backdrop where correlations between risk assets at classes move sharply together as investors seek safe havens red hot inflation a Slowdown in China's economic growth and the federal reserve's aggressive interest rate hikes have upped the risk that the U.S suffers a recession in 2023 but oil prices would fall in that scenario a decline in economic activity tends to drive crude prices lower as demand and consumer spending Falls oil Benchmark surged to around 130 dollars a barrel in February after Russia invaded Ukraine but they've sent slip back towards 90 inflation has remained high in recent months spurring the FED to continue its tightening campaign in a bid to tame soaring prices oil Market fundamentals have taken a back seat to the broader macro landscape and the policy driven Market the previous Corridor was a stark reminder that a violently strong and erratic macro headwind can temporarily Trump individual fundamentals across most asset classes falling oil prices could also provide relief for Americans at the pump national average gas prices have slipped from five dollars a gallon in June to 3.92 a gallon Wednesday deflation is next crash has started okay now I'm going to show you my clients David Vine and jima's book ignite the passion co-create your dreams this is a collaboration book um such a great book and my client Teddy Easy's Wicked perfume this is an erotic novel such an incredible book and my book um a Crazy Little Thing Called Life this is a bestseller another awesome book and my book called happy um we learned to be just like a child again not be controlled by worldly circumstances so this is my bestseller book called happy it is another amazing book so all of these books help with depression anxiety and stress we are living in uncertain Times order your copy today um and like my video um I thank you for being a fan and supporting me I hope you've enjoyed all the content today um and bye
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