저자: Kevin · 외국인
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부채한도 잠정 합의 후 디폴트 리스크가 낮아져 시장 불안이 해소될 것으로 봄. 인플레 피크는 지났고 경기침체도 피할 가능성이 있다고 판단. 이런 환경에서 공매도는 위험하다고 조언. AI 버블 붕괴는 있겠지만 피해 대상은 AI에 해자를 잃은 소프트웨어 기업이라고 언급. 강의 가격 인상 전 구독 권유 포함.
다듬은 글
hey everyone me Kevin here well we've reached a deal on the debt ceiling and now there are still some hurdles of things that could go wrong but I wanted to break down the details of the latest things that are tentatively within this a tonative deal and what it means for us I first of all let's start with this a course member asked me on Thursday if they should be buying shorts on this Market I said the big risk you're running buying shorts going into this three-day weekend is that you've got three days with no ability to close out your shorts or a debt deal could get done and it looks like that's what's happening now no guarantees that the Market's going to Skyrocket on this all it takes is j-pow or you know someone from the FED coming out saying you know what we are going to raise rates again in June which so far the market is actually pricing in that we are going to get another rate hike even though drone piles basically committed to the idea of a pause although then there's this idea of maybe we pause in June and re-hike again in July which is weird because that brings us back to the mid 70s which led to the Paul Volker era not what you want to hear but forget the FED for a moment let's think about the deals here or the details of this deal so basically we had a 90-minute phone call between Biden and McCarthy the two teams uh to negotiate the final details of the framework that they had roughly agreed to earlier this week now uh Janet Yellen this morning came out and said and gave a revised X date that's the date where the treasury Department expects to run out of money at first she gave a date of June 1st however this led a lot of Republicans to say nah that's a BS deadline most of the Wall Street expectations are June 8th through 9th which honestly I mean there's probably some buffer room she's giving because she you know if we hit that date wants to be able to have a few extra days just in case a deal is done then you got to get the procedurals done like the actual bill voted on which we got to talk about that because there could be some things that come up and actually slow that process down too the hardlining could still happen so buckle up for that but Jenny Ellen this morning came out and announced that June 5th would be the day that the treasury Department has about 130 billion dollars of payments that need to be made and that's going to be pretty tight so maybe June 5th is actually the X date uh either way here's the framework of roughly what was agreed to between McCarthy and Joe Biden after Janet Yellen came out with his date a lot of folks say that was sort of the leftover motivation Republicans needed to get over the edge though realistically I'm not sure how much of this date mattered uh whether it was the first or the fifth we just got to get it done so what are the details roughly well we'll get the full text of the bill supposedly tomorrow though during the kova days we all remember we would always hear oh yeah the bill's coming out tomorrow and then it would be like tomorrow tomorrow tomorrow tomorrow it was always tomorrow but anyway the rough framework is agreeing to approximately a two-year raise of fiscal spending at roughly the same levels where they are now and anything that's been agreed to in other words any payments that have already been agreed to Via bill will be approved so we're good with that it's not like we're renegotiating existing bills however there is some sort of cap on how much extra discretionary spending could be authorized by the government we're going to spend roughly about the same amount in 2024 as we expect to spend in 2023 that's a win for Republicans with about a one percent boost in spending from 2024 to 2025.
that does get us through the presidential election cycle which is exactly what Democrats and Republicans want nobody wants this sort of hard lining during a presidential election that would be a disaster so uh this this is a real seen as a win for partially both sides Republicans will probably be able to say hey look we're reducing spending the New York Times says this at least by about 650 billion dollars over the next decade the Wall Street Journal which leans a little right well New York Times leans a little left they say yeah it's unlikely to change really anything and politico's kind of like ah we're basically keeping spending flattish so really it doesn't seem like there's some huge major Cuts here though Republicans are going to be able to cheer the fact that they limited that IRS spending from 80 billion dollars down to 70 billion dollars uh Republicans originally wanted 20 billion off of IRS spending as opposed to new work requirements for those receiving some certain entitlement programs and you know I know sometimes that's an offensive phrase to say but you know food stamp access uh and snap program benefit access which is the official uh name for the program anyway that's probably the more appropriate way to describe it you have to be so careful with what you say these days everybody's so sensitive but anyway uh you did get slightly increased work requirements here so what you got is basically anybody currently under 49 who does not have children has the requirement to work basically what they did is they took that age and they moved it up to 54.
so 54 and under will now be subject to work requirement rules uh and as a give to Democrats no new work requirements for Medicaid programs remember Cade is for poor care is for old okay great so uh so again uh Democrats are going to be able to cheer that they didn't get you know that they were able to protect funding for the snap food programs uh this includes the temporary assistance for needy families a program as well and Republicans are going to cheer the fact that they did get a club back from the IRS funding they also got a little bit of clawback of unspent coveted money and also got a little bit of an increase in these work requirements do keep in mind that the program will also expand access to Veterans and homeless tentatively some of these things are just being sort of leaked so different agencies and different Publications are reporting different things mostly because the formal text of the bill and framework of the bill isn't out yet but we'll get more details over the weekend over the Memorial Day uh weekend here so uh Memorial Day Weekend wait a minute uh yeah so the next thing that we need to know well hold on what day is Memorial Day Memorial Day 2023 why why is this so oh it is the 29th yeah of course that's the day off see all my employees get their day off on on Monday they know when these holidays are because the pay day off that's okay I think we've got too many paid days off but we follow the uh I I do this on purpose at our companies everyone that I have we follow the uh office of personnel management days off paid days off and it's the government's date off days off so in other words there are a lot of them and it's a good thing you know I'm a big fan of of that and people getting some r r time you know work hard play hard I'm a big fan of that uh we're actually out here in NorCal oh boy I might make a video on San Francisco but Sanford Cisco is just a complete disaster we had to leave San Francisco because Lauren didn't feel safe it was that crazy but we're looking at a little bit real estate a little bit family uh we're looking at real estate though I really enjoy it so anyway oh and more updates to come on on house hack that'll be really fun but I want to talk about some implications and what's next for this debt ceiling deal uh do keep in mind as well we're dropping the AI lectures on June 1st and then pricing will be going up for the all of the courses across the board on building your wealth and making more money check those out linked down below so going forward what's important to know is we still have some potential hurdles from hardliners coming so this is where you could basically have some of the further left progressives or those on the further right basically come back and say hey you know what we're going to try to use some procedural tricks to basically put leadership through some hoops and hurdles to force a delay of a vote on this bill I think that's partially why more and more Republicans wanted to hear hey what's the actual X date so we could play some procedural drama the reason for this is really so those individuals can go back to their districts and say hey I tried every trick in the book and they still pass this I didn't want them to authorize even a penny more of spend so I tried to delay it it didn't work well no doubt it didn't work because once the moderate votes are in and this deal is struck it's it's done so so I I would say from a practical point of view even though the deal is not done and there's likely to still be clickbait drama about how a deal is not done yet and yes something could go wrong I'd say you know 99 out of 100 here this deal is done the debt ceiling is going to get raised over the next two weeks it's going to take a lot of anxiety out of the market because this anxiety is going to get taken out of the market and because the market is already pricing in a hike for June there are not really that many negative catalysts left now that's a problem for some people because and I you know I get it I know what it's like but there are some companies out there that fundamentally just are not good companies and their stocks are skyrocketing and that's leading a lot of people to go what is this the bear winning we should short these companies I think this is a probably a very dangerous time to short that's not to say we're not going to have some kind of short-term you know retracement on some of the Fibonacci levels that we've been hitting but I think shorting now would be quite frankly dangerous and not a wise thing just because there are not a lot of new negative catalysts think about the negative catalysts that we've gone through in the last 18 months really think about this for a moment the covid reopening was supposed to be a big second wave of inflation no it didn't happen the invasion of Ukraine happened within the last 18 months yeah that was painful that led to another wave of inflation but we're through it now uh hitting Peak inflation in German while in America but while I was reporting it while I was in Germany uh with a family last summer I remember doing that video from the beach in Germany live for CPI uh but anyway we're looking at this like oh my gosh Peak inflation this is terrible we're past that now yet now now the argument is old but maybe there's sticky inflation okay really that's that's all you got the FED has played the opportunistic disinflation game before AI is going to lead to a big boost in productivity spending from businesses business fixed investment will probably go up thanks to AI consumer spending is still Rising people are still spending like crazy uh we're still expecting record travel spend uh this summer uh all of that yes is inflationary will it lead to another oil price surge unlikely because the Chinese spending boom just hasn't been fantastic if anything China's been a little bit of an anchor to not only Commodities actually staying low look at iron and copper charts sorry commodity Steve uh and and also uh quite frankly oil uh so even though you can see more spend in America and in Europe seeing Less in in China uh is is anchoring especially industrial spending in um China is anchoring some of your inflationary expectations for oil so really this is a dangerous Market to Short I think it's a dangerous Market to uh be under allocated on because this Market you know as much as people will look at this market and go oh it's just a bubble you could be at any one of an AI bubble and you could say it's a bubble for the next eight Innings and yeah maybe eventually it's going to burst and you know what I'll tell you today mark this somebody marked this on the calendar and remind me in eight years or whatever but I believe there will be an AI Bubble Burst at some point the companies that will burst in it though will be the software companies that got disrupted by this AI technology I think there are a lot of software companies you have to be very very careful of how they're actually going to adapt to this now broad-based availability of AI in other words these software companies that used to have emote potentially just had their moat robbed from them thanks to Bard and chat GPT and these plugins that for very cheaply for basically the cost of the server access which you're spending money on anyway you could be caught up on on AI levels so uh not for all purposes obviously like for example you you know are at house hack for example we have our wedge finder uh this is an AI that we trained on top of Google's database and it's and it's our own personal training that training is not available on something like a Bard or or a trash EPT uh but if it were which I know you could do like a plug-in Zillow look for Fixer-Upper but that's just any listing that's listific sir that's that's different uh but if all of a sudden like all of our training data were suddenly available and something else whether the money we spent on that wouldn't be worth that anymore right now we still think it's an incredible proprietary advantage that we have specifically because it's trained the way I operate right but the long-term argument of this is to say that a lot of companies who spent money developing and training AI potentially have just lost their investment because of the bards and chat CPT plugins and it makes it so much easier for other companies to compete and that competitiveness is something we're going to have to watch for so point of this is I don't know that now that you've got this debt ceiling default drama out of the way that you're really going to expect to see a sudden drop in markets again you could see a tactical retracement I believe that is possible but I don't think you have real Catalyst left for negativity and I know that sounds crazy like what do you mean like there has to be some kind of negativity left and I'm like not necessarily again I'm not here to say the market won't go down in the short term but I think this is uh this is a moment where we have to look and go well if inflation is gone the major catalysts of of oh my gosh War Chinese second wave Commodities 200 oil barrels uh a debt ceiling default all this crap gone I mean the next thing people are going to talk about is like okay well you know maybe they'll hike one more time or they won't cut that soon so the market doesn't care look at how quickly the market reacted or how much I should say the market reacted to oh my gosh maybe we actually are going to have another 25 BP in June what did the market do it just kept going up doesn't care uh which is pretty remarkable and I think that's because the economy is starting to or the markets rather are starting to recognize we might actually avoid a recession here and the recession if there ever was one was probably in 2022.
oopsies anyway those are my thoughts if you want to see your job income uh you know you want all my perspectives make sure to join those programs on building your wealth uh you're going to get non-stop updates to those programs especially with the AI course uh and the productivity course the entrepreneurship course or the employee that's all one right any kind of in making more money course we're constantly going to be adding more lectures to that mostly because AI is also constantly going to be evolving uh so we're very very excited to share all our insights with you so stay tuned join that before June 1st which is coming up so click that link down below to learn more but this is great news thanks bye
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