저자: Kevin · 외국인
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진행자는 AI 수요로 기업 설비투자(capex)가 급증하며 경기침체를 피할 수 있고 기술주 상승세가 이어질 것으로 본다. 나스닥은 상승 추세 복귀로 해석하며 330선 재조정 가능성을 언급. 금리는 고점 유지 가능성, 주택시장은 재고 부족 속 불확실성. 소프트웨어 기업은 AI 수혜 불확실로 경계. 테슬라는 도조(Dojo) 서버 사업 가능성을 제시. 부채한도 협상은 해결 쪽으로 낙관.
다듬은 글
oh my gosh the market is on fire and we're going to talk about the market but first I have to apologize because I screwed up I didn't do a meet Kevin report this morning I had to meet Kevin report scheduled and I woke up at 3 50 to do it but I couldn't do it I couldn't do it I couldn't do it because um this is somewhat embarrassing and this rarely happens it happened yesterday I think it's out of our systems but um basically uh we we uh we we in the staff uh may have set up a LAN party and had like a 14-hour rest raid so in other words uh I got like zero sleep until about like 3 A.M and then I'm like cool I'm gonna get like 45 minutes of sleep and I'm like no problem we could do it so I'm up at like 350 and I'm staring at my two coffees and I'm like so uh pce comes out soon let's look at the forecast this rarely happens it happened and I apologize um yeah so anyway let's now uh but hey that you know what I think it was good it was uh our entire team uh it's kind of cool you know because we we we basically just took the office and turned it into a LAN party I think once in a while that's healthy that's good uh too often it's a problem but once in a while you know pizza and then smoothies afterwards and land that's fun uh and this was fun this was really fun so I really enjoyed it but I do apologize to the viewers uh and uh now now we got to get back to hard work so uh with that said uh I just came from a 93-minute course member live stream we're gonna talk about some of these things but uh in that we went through a detailed analysis on companies that are running today like your C3 AI your uipath we talk Google we talked Asics we talked Tesla chiplets we talked I mean everything servers AI uh what the he double hockey sticks is going on in the market you know everybody's already heard the news about the Tesla Ford partnership that's great uh and I think there'll be more of that I think that the big hidden thing about Tesla that is probably not being prioritized by Elon right now I actually think that if Elon were less this is an example of where I think yes Elon is distracted by Twitter but I think if Elon were less focused on Twitter he would see this opportunity there's a massive opportunity in potentially using Dojo their their uh basically custom made server stack for AI compute renting out basically their server for AI compute and making servers like and then competing with your not only Amazon and Google and Microsoft server Stacks but also making the actual chip that would be a vertically integrated data center a game changer for Tesla because it would be a completely new vertical that people would have to price in a completely new vertical so dear Elon Musk if there's one thing to consider doing right now it would be creating a vertically integrated server stack specifically for AI use the Tesla Dojo that side of the business even if you have to fundraise for it will sell fund the stock market will give you the money you need to do that so please if you think Dojo is as powerful as you all suggested on AI day even though you all are for some reason I don't know maybe somebody can explain it to me using seven nanometer chips produced uh will manufacture by tsmc you're designing these triplets yourself which is great you're not even operating these AI servers Dojo on gpus which are extremely expensive you're running them on your own triplets which is awesome and so why not make a chiplet AI Data Center you you say you're an AI company right and suggests that FSD is just totally undervalued by the market well let's double and triple down on it so I don't know maybe maybe nobody's suggested that but there's a real possibility that creating this sort of server stack uh could could be a multi-hundred billion dollar market cap opportunity for Tesla and a massive Revenue driver because now if you can I mean think about this a Nvidia h100 costs you thirty thousand dollars and we talked about this a little bit in uh the course member law actually we talked about it a lot uh but we were comparing Asics and gpus and CPUs and stuff but so so quickly going to some of these notes from the course member live which remember you get lifetime access to just join any one of the programs linked down below you'd want to do that before uh June 1st because we're releasing the course uh the AI stuff then and then the price will go up again but anyway one of the things we were talking about was was some of the differences between gpus and A6 and that don't worry so much about that what you more want to worry about is that your typical AI server right now looks something like this or maybe you have two CPUs which are think of it as like the brain of the server uh and then your workhorses like your Motors or the gpus and the gpus right now the the winner the fastest most efficient four nanometer chip right now is your Nvidia h100 that's these guys and you spent about 30 grand on each of these if you have 10 that means you're spending 300 Grand on these GPU stacks and on these CPUs you're spending maybe 15 grand so you're out spending uh via gpus on a 20 to 1 ratio your AMD CPUs now we do know that AMD also makes gpus we know that obviously from the PC gaming side but their server gpus are they don't hold the candle to the h100 so let's just put it that way so we know that we talked about that already before and plenty of other videos and we've looked at sort of the cost differential between uh the the time-based usage of these but more important is that and this is more Market broad important uh you know we'll move on from Tesla because I do think there's a huge opportunity here for Tesla and Dojo with with their custom server stack right I think Dojo if you looked at it would look a lot more like you'd have uh your your brain uh your your brain up here and then under that you'd actually have endless interconnected they call them chiplets to do uh tasks and if these can be as flexible as gpus uh which that could be a probable downside for Tesla is if they're not flexible like gpus and they're not programmable given that Nvidia has the Cuda moat then perhaps that's where the downside is and perhaps that's why Tesla can't pull this off with the chiplets maybe they don't have the flexibility maybe they're good for FSD data but not everything else right so that would be your big downside maybe I don't know but maybe they are flexible maybe somebody can Enlighten us on that in the comments with that said though so Tesla out of the way with that said obviously ai's is driving the market today it's driving the market so much so that you're actually seeing oh we're back to the Blackboard why would we be back here well it's because of this word nobody likes bills and I'll tell you if you want bills buy a plane because I just did and there are endless bills and I'm tired of them I wish I could just lower my bills and see all the bills I had to deal with in one place and that's where 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a shot at especially since rocket money is an all-in-one personal finance platform that helps you save more money and spend less so consider supporting the channel and the meet Kevin report so you get here totally for free and check out the link down below for Rocket money now back to the content another rate hike being priced in now this it's at 2.18 it's near lows and it's really stopped Rising if you look at the news that came out this morning on report phenomenal why was it phenomenal because the expectation was we were still going to have that four and a half percent on the one year out inflation Horizon what do we got we got 4.2 we're going back which is a sign that you had this temporary surge of inflation fears because of uh the energy cycle of April the sort of rebound that we got uh and even into may this uh year over year oh my gosh Pepsi raised prices nonsense which we've already broken down many times most of those price increases happen in the first half of last year not the first half of this year that means the pricing power is really fading uh and and the true pricing power will come from what I've been banging the table on which is innovation and chips software was tough we'll talk about software in a moment c3i I'll give you a little note on these uh good so great on inflation expectations still anchored five-year break-even expectations anchored pce just like the last CPI came in one tenth hot on uh core month over month at 0.4 and uh month over month headline at 0.4 as well 4.8 obviously well above two percent we know that but what's happening is you're just seeing the economy keep cranking durable orders coming in at 1.1 instead of the expectation of negative one percent companies are spending money again capital good orders are exploding capital good orders uh excluding air and uh uh and then just looking at non-defensives non-defense style not like defensive style stocks like not military and not air Aerospace what did those capital good orders do machinery like cnc's like lithography machines for chips what did they do survey says negative point one actual says 1.4 we're seeing companies spend because they realize we're not going into a deep dark recession instead you need to spend money to invest in your company so that going forward you don't get left behind in a weird way and we talked about this in yesterday's course member live stream I actually think there's this this likelihood of seeing and I know it sounds crazy but seeing companies hire more people in the short term and then refine in the future that's because companies don't want to get left behind on this Nike Swoosh recovery of this next decade it's real yeah look is there still a possibility of going into a recession maybe but with all this new AI spend business investment is not going anywhere anywhere but up business investment is going up the consumer is still strong the data we're getting does not say recession it does not say the FED has over tightened so the FED has a choice do they go for pause on inflation because inflation is trending down and risk it reinflating or do they go for another 25 BP hike well so far it looks like the market is pricing in now today it flip-flopped another 25 basis point hike in fact uh we're at about a 67 chance of a 25 basis point hike in uh June and now here's what's crazy if the Federal Reserve chooses not to hike because Jerome Powell said hey we're we're sufficiently restrictive we're good you know we'll be data dependent but we've reached the level of being sufficiently restrictive If the Fed pauses when the market is actually expecting a hike you know what emoji symbol that's going to look like rocket ship and if you're a short seller you you best beware now if the Market's pricing in at 25 BP hike and we get a 25 BP hike nobody cares no obviously the market is trending up also not just because of AI but because of this debt ceiling stuff like we talked about yesterday Republicans focusing on hey let's just let's just cut spending for the IRS rather than cutting snap food program benefits or worker requirements well duh everybody can get behind that who in their right mind what American is going to say yeah uh would you rather cut money from poor people who need to get a leg up even if there's abuse in the system even though they're entitlements would you rather cut money from poor people who are just trying to eat and put food on the table and get a what you know get a leg up on the crappy situation that they might be in probably all right I don't know what the situation is but would you rather cut money from them or would you rather say hey uh let's take a little bit of money from the IRS back come on man then everybody hates the IRS because they take your money now those are the that's what we sign up for that's okay you can't be bitter about the IRS I was super bitter because my biggest earning year ever uh maybe one day in the future we could repeat that but obviously that's that's not now my biggest earning year ever 2021 I paid like 55 in taxes it was insane uh it was like 11.7 million dollars of taxes gone and so then it's like oh my God that's a lot of money so um anywho so so obviously I think that would be uh uh popular to to uh limit what you would see from uh from from this debt ceiling negotiation and some of the drama where if everybody can get behind this idea of okay let's let's give some of this money away from from the IRS and it's a popular thing boom all of a sudden debt ceiling done now there's talk about kicking the debt ceiling down the road for two years which means you don't even have to worry about it during the presidential election which means you're kicking the can down the road to 2025 which would be good because you don't want to go through this crap again right before an election cycle because it probably lowers voter turnout and makes people become even more disenfranchised with political system so okay debt ceiling talk over Tesla talk over now what about all these software companies going to oh yeah and of course the FED talk over uh yeah do keep in mind I always like paying attention to also what's going on uh with the FED uh and uh and and specifically your treasure yields so we're gonna talk about treasury yields and software next year so let me first interject treasury yields treasure yields up because the economy is still doing well you're at City you're sitting at 3.8 on the 10-year treasury now what industry is that most problematic for Real Estate even though real estate is still doing just fine because we have still yet to see The Surge of inventory still no summer surge of inventory it looks like higher for longer is not affecting the stock market it's going to affect the real estate market so that'll create some interesting opportunities uh which I'm excited about for house hack now my real estate startup uh but we'll see so far median sale prices just ticked up again so you know people don't seem to stop buying because there's so little inventory uh you know we're I mean look look at this active inventory chart you ready for this this is insane you look at the Active inventory for Real Estate look at this your active inventory is if this continues and we do not see the surge in inventory let's see we're at 950 000 uh for 2022 right now we're at 730.
let's say we're at 750 in two months 750 000 listings divided by 950. inventory would be down 21 that's why prices are falling I mean they did fall peaked the trough which was made to December but now we still have this uncertainty of like okay well what happens next well inventory stays low and price is basically slowly start Rising again or inventory starts Rising as rates stay high and that's your worst case scenario so there's certainly uncertainty we could be certain of uncertainty in real estate but where's another area that is seeing a lot of sort of almost spack-like Euphoria which in my opinion uh is is uh somewhat ludicrous some of it where are we seeing some of this spack-like Euphoria again well in my opinion it's companies like c3ai now uipath has a substantially better fundamentals than uh uh C3 AI but both of these companies especially specifically a uipath uipath grade financials guiding flat revenue for a growth and SAS company nobody wants to hear flat Revenue the problem is we do not know who which software companies are going to be the absolute beneficiaries of AI but we do know is that the winners of AI are going to start with uh the users the businesses and the end users we know servers will win we know manufacturers of server equipment will win so you know going down the chain we know every business that uses AI wins any business that doesn't use AI will get left behind literally why I have this coming out right how to be more productive yourself as an employee an entrepreneur doesn't matter with how to make more money and get [ __ ] done faster course check that out join uh by uh June 1st because that's when we're doing our lecture drop and I'd love for you to be part of that uh it's it's going to be incredible and we'll learn productivity in Ai and we'll consistently update it as well and you get access to the course member live streams where you get this incredible Deep dive analysis remember we had 93 minutes this morning on on debating and talking and and and researching it's really phenomenal but anyway and that's like every day the Market's open too uh usually not that long though today was a little extended but anyway so c3a okay so we know that businesses and users will win from AI anybody who doesn't use AI will lose we don't know which software companies will win though we think it'll probably be companies like Cloud providers like Google and AWS and Microsoft the downside is how much of their businesses are actually going to get hurt by AI at the same time as benefit from AI like Google search Google search and network placements like 69 of their revenue well 69 of the revenue drops at 10 a year that's five billion dollars a year of Revenue that's going away and even if you go from one billion dollars to two billion dollars of just AI ad Revenue great you're up one down five you're net down four that bleeds Google's revenue now I would never bet against Google as a user but as an investor I I'm nervous because I don't know how that Revenue bleed is going to look the company's done great though over the past few uh weeks here because of AI and obviously it would take years to see that bleed so short-term bullish long-term bearish Maybe okay so now we look at um and then of course you have your nvidias your amds your Taiwan semiconductors these are phenomenal make sure when you're doing fundamental analysis on tsmc you understand that ADR shares the ones we invest in in America are five times as valuable as the Chinese listed shares keep that in mind otherwise your numbers will look real funky anyway so then you look at you know the software stacks and the reality is most users and businesses are just going to flip-flop to whatever business provides the best AI product and now that it costs basically nothing to start an AI business How Could You Bet on software any individual software company when tomorrow there could just be a better software company all of them will use the data centers the servers the chips and all the users and businesses will win but the one segment that is most at risk is the software stack so that does make me very nervous uh for the software stack and so when I see this sort of like Euphoria and some of the stocks it's like hey it's fine that's fine Rising tide lifts All Ships no problem plenty of my stocks are absolutely phenomenally with the exception like end face which is stuck in the hole which is probably honestly because of that uncertainty rates are high and they're going up you're at a all-time high for mortgage rates this year and that makes it harder to borrow for for these sort of investments into your home uh and then of course you still have uncertainty over where the real estate Market's going to go so let's put all these pieces of the puzzle together well understanding the pieces of the puzzle we are clearly in a situation where we might entirely avoid a recession because of artificial intelligence and it's not just because oh my gosh it's chat GPT it's because of the business Investments just a few weeks ago I reported a uh on a Goldman Sachs piece that suggested we would go into a recession not because of consumer spend because that's resilient and actually strengthening we would go into a business-led recession because businesses would spend less on capex because rates are so much higher for businesses businesses are the ones who pay interest rates like that yeah well now with AI businesses will be like we can't afford not to keep investing even if rates are higher okay interesting so literally uh anyway so so this sets up a fascinating potential of entirely avoiding a recession but not just avoiding a recession having a disinflationary GDP boom disinflationary because we're past the coveted money printing but also because AI is disinflationary by the nature of it it's actually deflationary it makes companies more productive and it allows GDP to expand in a non-inflationary way it's the best case scenario it's literally like if you could have if you could have in 2021 in November of 2021 given the market a magic pill an antidote to high inflation and stagflation you would have created something that would have let GDP expand rapidly in a way that massively increases productivity and does not cause inflation quite literally that is what AI is it's mind-blowing now I understand there are a lot of people who still believe that this all this AI stuff is just hype that's fine look at business cap X Investments over the next nine months they're going to explode they're going to explode because businesses cannot afford to be left behind and they realize this is not a metaverse where you're buying virtual real estate or some garbage this is actual at every person's desk more productivity every employee becomes more productive because of this it's mind-blowing so uh that said this is fantastic news for the Nike Swoosh recovery this is fantastic news for potentially avoiding recession uh and quite frankly the market might look at another Fed rate I can go bring it on is that all you got I mean look at the NASDAQ we have now retraced quite well we've we bounced off the floor 253 we had some uncertainty around inflation and Paul volcker leading us to 289.
we got rejected by 311 and once we finally broke 311 we went straight through the 330 resistance didn't even stop now we're getting rejected at 3 48. which is literally where the QQQ is sitting right now the downtrend is clearly over and now you're clearly on a downtrend uptrend in fact you actually just broke the uptrend which is insane uh let's modify the uptrend slightly here uh to align no you'd want to kind of keep it here yeah no I'm just gonna extend it is what I'm gonna do so is it possible that we retrace on the NASDAQ back to a 330 maybe on on a hot inflation report for for uh May yeah uh that would be potentially your fall down to about a 330 right but yeah this is this is absolutely a remarkable time uh and so we'll see so I suppose in conclusion uh Tesla if their chipsets are adaptable they should be considering getting into the server space potentially if they can do it cheaper and more effectively with their dojo or if it's not adaptable then forget about it just use it for your own Ai and autonomy and hopefully more Brands wake up to Tesla and Tesla becomes like an apple carplay for charging and for full self driving the full self-driving is already extremely good and you really can't have an opinion of Tesla full self-driving unless you've used Tesla full self-driving okay that's one two be cautious of software three probably be bullish on AI and what it means for the economy and potentially avoiding a recession great uh and then uh last don't worry about the debt ceiling and instead ask yourself why have you not joined these programs you know somebody left me a a comment the other day like oh I haven't joined yet because I don't care about real estate there's a stocks in psychology of money group there's a how to make more money entrepreneur and individual worker productivity course because remember there's investing and then there's making more money those are two different things investing we have stocks and Psych yes and there is a zero to millionaire real estate course which is different in a property management course which is different which includes rental Renovations and recommendations and product recommendations of that all of them include access to the course member live streams but then you've got the how to make more money of course of course as well so check all these out uh really excited to share all the content and you get the full Archive of all of course my live streams just make sure you join before June 1st okay folks thank you so much for being here and we'll see you next one good luck out ther
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