Fed will raise interest rates in December: Jeffrey Gundlach

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결론: 연준의 12월 금리 인상은 채권시장이 이미 상당히 반영하고 있으며, 인플레이션 둔화에도 불구하고 금리 인상 기조는 이어질 것으로 본다. 금리 인상 전망: 단기 국채 금리 스프레드로 계산한 인상 확률이 70%를 넘어 연준이 인상할 것으로 보며, 연준은 사실상 채권시장을 따라간다는 주장. 경제 지표: 핵심 CPI가 5개월 연속 약했다가 연준 목표 수준으로 올라왔고, PPI는 약 5% 근처이며 상품 가격이 상승 중. 2분기 GDP는 양호하고 3분기는 허리케인에도 2% 중반 전망. 임금과 고용: 임금 상승률 2.9%를 긍정적으로 보나 가계소득 감소와 소비 둔화가 혼재. 실업률 4% 초반에도 임금이 필립스곡선 모형만큼 오르지 않아 인플레이션 모형이 잘 안 맞는다고 진단. 연준 정책 전망: 연준은 향후 1년간 3차례 추가 인상을 원하며 현재 4차례 인상 후 5차례로 간다. 대차대조표 축소(양적긴축)가 동시에 진행되어 금융여건이 이중으로 긴축되는 점이 리스크. 금리곡선: 2년물과 10년물 스프레드는 과거 기준으로 크게 압축됐으나 현재는 40년 평균 수준이라 경기침체 신호로 보기 어렵다는 입장. 금리곡선이 더 평평해져야 경기 침체 신호. 자산 전망: 양적완화 이후 주식시장(S&P500)이 중앙은행 대차대조표 대비 거의 일정한 비율을 유지하며 상승해 왔으므로, 양적긴축이 주식 지지력을 줄일 수 있다고 우려. 출연자 전망: 금리 인상은 계속되며 경제 성장은 완만하나, 인플레이션은 과거처럼 크게 오르지 않을 것이라는 입장.

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01. my next guest is a Titan in the bond world and one of the first Wall Streeters to predict that Donald Trump would become the next US president I'm happy to welcome to the program right now mm Capital founder and CEO Jeffrey Gunlock good to see you Jeff thanks so much for joining us to be here merci so you've got assets under management at a record one hundred and sixteen billion dollars you've got to put that money to work amidst all of these questions let me ask you first about this whole idea about interest rates moving higher do you expect it in December yes I do and the bond market expects it to the Fed likes to talk about being data dependent but the things that they seem most focused on are at the level of the stock market and also the shape of the front part of the Treasury market and from comparing the yield on save one-month t-bills three-month t-bills and year when you're t-bills you can divine a probability that the bond market thinks that the feds going to raise rates and the Fed never raises rates when that probability is less than 70 percent and they basically always raise them once above 70 so you could pretty much replace the Fed with the Treasury market and in essence that's what's really happening and the the Treasury market certainly believes the Fed will raise rates and I think the most recent inflation numbers particularly the core CPI which came out it was looking really weak for about five months in a row and the last one that came out was at the level that the Fed wants to see it and the PPI came out this week and it was a point for most recent month well it any Liza's to about 5% and commodity prices have been rising and GDP was pretty decent in the second quarter and the guesses are for mid twos or so in the third quarter even with the Hurricanes so the Fed I think has basically a lot of momentum towards raising rates we went from an environment where the Fed needed the data to get better to have the courage to raise rates they kept sort of saying they were going to and they didn't now starting in about February March of this year the Fed shifted to a paradigm well they'll keep raising rates if the data doesn't get worse so it's they're now kind of back almost in the old school mindset you remember Alan Greenspan and Ben Bernanke they used to raise rates at every meeting once they got into the into the mode this Yellen fed they're a little more cautious and they're raising rates kind of once a quarter when they feel like they're in the mode yeah that's where they are now don't forget about the two point nine percent wage move we saw right in that GDP number and and revisions from the past numbers you know it was weird the advert our learnings were showing year-over-year change that was absolutely a flatline and then they just got revised and now it looks like they're in a rising trend again and up at two point nine you know it with rage growth around three percent I think the Fed will raise rates along with their program that they're advertising the question really is is what's the economy going to do in response to these two modes of tightening that have begun we've raised rates four times we're gonna head to five the Fed wants to do three more next year but there's another bug in the ointment which is the balance sheet roll-off yes which there's a very cogent argument to be made that the quantitative easing helped the economy and certainly helped to risk assets like the stock market if you take the capitalization of the S&P 500 and divide it by the holdings of central banks the ECB the Bank of Japan and the Fed it's almost a constant you can make the argument for the stock market has been propelled pretty nicely and the global stock market to buy quantitative easing now so I don't have to think that maybe if that's taken away or reduced it reduces some of that support and the Fed is now letting some of these bonds roll off and we'll see what this double barrel of tightening financial conditions really does so far we have seen the yield curve the United States the relationship between short rates and long rates has compressed from a very high number they compare two year yields to 10-year yields it was very high by historical standards before the Fed started tightening now it's kind of average there is a theme that you hear a financial media report that the yield curve is somehow very flat and signaling recession it's flat than it was before but it's actually at the 40 year average and for really to be signaling economic trouble you'd probably need the curved to compress quite a bit further kind of towards towards flat and we'll see if that happens with the Fed raising rates well certainly you know that jobs number with the two point nine percent wage number that was sort of one of the best parts of the report but when you look at some other economic data household income down you know sentiment while it's up people are not necessarily spending the way the way you would expect so it is a little two steps forward one step back do you think inflation is here not really no the Fed keeps saying that they're perplexed as you said at the outset about why their inflation models don't work there's this whole thing about the Phillips curve that when unemployment gets down to a certain level and Felician and wages are supposed to go up but the unemployment rate has gone from 8 or 9 percent you know seven eight years ago to like four point four four point three or four point two four point two now and wage growth has not really come back anywhere close to the model one economist I thought had a clever saying he said the Phillips curve flunked econ 101 because it's not working and that's what's so perplexing but a lot of it has to do with you know the way the economy has changed the globalization all of these things inflation isn't tipped towards the deflationary fear as much as it was before commodity prices are rising wages as we said are up 2.9 but we have been able to break up two three four percent wage growth and I don't think we're going to with the Fed putting on the brakes with raising interest rates