저자: JimRogers · 외국인
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트럼프 세제안은 시장을 크게 움직이지 않을 것이며, 시장은 이미 대부분 반영했다는 견해. 달러는 강세를 유지할 가능성이 크고 엔화와 유로는 문제가 생길 것으로 전망. 세금 정책: 법인세 등 감세는 도움이 되지만 작년에 제시된 수준보다 작아 기대에 못 미친다고 평가. 개인·법인 감세가 경제 성장에 도움이 된다고 봄. 통화: 달러는 올해 조정이 있었으나 최근 몇 년간 강했으며 앞으로도 높아질 것으로 예상. 유로는 스페인 등의 분리독립 움직임으로 문제가 계속될 전망. 엔화는 막대한 부채와 일본은행의 과도한 국채·주식·ETF 매입으로 문제가 커질 것이라 주장. 일본 조기총선: 과거 선거들처럼 기득권에 문제를 일으킬 수 있으며 아베 총리 측이 불리하지 않을 것이라는 취지의 견해. 투자 전략: 통화시장 불안은 대체로 주식시장 문제로 이어진다고 보며, 현재 주식은 이미 고점인 미국보다 하락한 아시아 시장(중국·일본·한국·러시아)을 선호. 서구보다는 아시아에 투자하라고 권고.
다듬은 글
joining me now is Rogers Holdings chairman Jim Rogers and Jim it is good to see you on skype in Singapore this morning do you think this tax plan is going to move markets I know I don't it's not nearly as much as we thought mr. Trump prime you know he promised us a lot before certainly any tax cut is better than nothing Maria but it's not as much as he suggested last year well he's got a LLC and it passed through eight of 28 percent that's down from almost 40% for small business that's got to be some tax relief Jim for really who are the job creators in this country small and medium-sized businesses yes yes Maria but we knew that was coming I mean he's talked about it a long time he's talked he said it was going to be lower than that I repeat any tax cut is good but as you know markets anticipate and the markets for whatever reason have anticipated most of this already what do you want to see in terms of policy coming out of Washington Jim what would investors want to see in order to actually feel like we can move the needle on economic growth oh well if he cuts taxes even more especially individual taxes he cuts them more throughout history when you cut taxes remember John Kennedy did it and we boomed for a while so cutting individual taxes and corporate taxes has always helped in the economy in the world mrs.
Thatcher did a lot of people have done it let me ask you about currencies obviously the dollar has been has been recovering a bit from a tough year being down while the Euro has soared what's your take in terms of the currency story right now well I'd read the only u.s. dollar than the Euro at this point the Euro the US dollar did have a correction this year but it had a very very strong couple of years Maria and anything it has a strong couple of years correct I own a lot of US dollars I expect it to go high the euro is gonna have more problems the yen is going to have more problems they're all going to have problems why why Jim oh why well part because the euro is gonna be continued to be hit with with secession movements you see what's happening in Spain right now you see what's happy in Kurdistan it's not Europe but at least you know the same sort of mentality exist everywhere the yen the yen has got gigantic debt problems Maria the Japanese central bank now has owns 40% of all Japanese debt they have been buying staggering amounts of debt and printing a lot of money they own huge numbers of Japanese stocks and ETFs they print money put it in the market that cannot go on forever I'm not the only one who knows there's a problem developing yeah and meanwhile Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Ave is expected to dissolve Parliament slower house on Thursday he says he wants to do a snap election in an effort to take advantage of improved party ratings after polling suggests that Ava's Liberal Democratic Party has the most support Jim what's your take on this snap election what does that mean for the Japanese and global markets as you know nearly every snap election in the last year including our flowers wasn't a snap election but all new elections have caused problems for the establishment this one will too mr.
hobby says he's going to raise taxes I would suspect the lady who's running against he moves a very smart lady he's gonna make him look pretty foolish in the end and tell me how you would allocate capital right now I understand you're worried about exchange-traded funds well I'm worried about the currency market since we're talking about the currency markets I see they're gonna be problems for the end I see they're gonna be problems with the euro the dollar will go higher as a result and whenever you have a lot of turmoil in currency markets it usually leads to problems in equity markets so I mean I own equities I certainly own a lot of Asian equities you know the Chinese markets down 50 percent from its all-time high America is at an all-time high Japan is down 50% I'd rather own markets that are down than ones that are up so I mean Germany Merkel just run a one a fourth term how do you allocate money today look around the world just quickly tell us where you would put money in equities today if anywhere China Japan Korea Russia go to Asia don't go to the west all right we will leave it there Jim Rogers always a pleasure to see you sir Thank You Maurice Jim
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