저자: MichaelBurry · 외국인
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2022년 미국 증시 약세가 장기화될 수 있다는 마이클 버리의 경고를 정리한 영상이다. 결론: 버리는 현재 하락이 절반 정도 진행됐다고 보며, 멀티플 압축 다음에 실적 압축이 이어질 것으로 본다. 시장 현황: S&P500 약 -20%, 나스닥 약 -27%, 물가상승률 9.1%, 전월 대비 1.3% 상승. 에너지 가격 급등이 주요 원인으로 제시됨. 금리 전망: 연준 7월 회의에서 최소 0.75%p 인상이 예상되며, 물가가 목표치 2%로 내려올 때까지 금리 인상이 계속될 수 있다고 봄. 버리의 핵심 주장: 인플레이션 조정 기준 2022년 상반기 S&P500 -25~26%, 나스닥 -34~35%, 비트코인 -64~65%로 이는 멀티플 압축 단계였으며, 이제 실적 압축 단계로 넘어갈 것이라고 봄. 현재 하락은 절반 정도 진행된 것으로 판단. 멀티플 압축 설명: 주가 = 주당순이익 × PER 공식으로 설명. S&P500 PER은 작년 35배 수준에서 약 20배로 하락 추정. 장기 평균 약 16배 근처로 회귀 중이며, 투자 심리 악화와 금리 상승이 원인. 실적 압축 우려: 저축률이 2008년 수준으로 떨어지고 신용카드 부채는 사상 최고 속도로 증가. 소비 여력 감소로 기업 매출과 이익이 타격받을 것으로 봄. 아마존의 1분기 실적 부진을 사례로 듦. 애널리스트들은 2023년까지 실적 둔화, 2024년 회복 전망. 출연자 관점: 진행자는 이 사이클이 정상적이며 장기 투자자 관점에서 기회로 볼 수 있다고 봄. 모든 기업이 같은 영향을 받는 것은 아니며, 부채가 없거나 가격 결정력이 있는 기업은 실적이 오를 수 있다고 언급. 불황기에 큰 부가 만들어지기도 한다는 입장. 전반적 톤: 버리는 비관적, 진행자는 중립~낙관적. 영상은 버리의 트윗과 차트 분석을 중심으로 구성됨.
다듬은 글
it's no secret that in 2022 the stock market hasn't been a particularly nice place to be the S P 500 is down about 20 the NASDAQ is down 27 and from everything we've seen in the news lately it doesn't look like it's getting much better anytime soon just last week we got an update that the annual inflation rate in the US has now hit 9.1 with a month-over-month rise of 1.3 percent remember the FED aims for the annual inflation rate to be 2 per year so we've got about eight months worth of inflation in just 30 days and if you delve into the numbers a huge chunk of that inflation is due to the energy crisis we're currently going through thanks to Russia's invasion of Ukraine and also the world's subsequent management of that situation energy was by far the worst category in tune up 7.5 month over month and broken down further we can see energy Commodities up 10.4 percent gasoline up 11.2 percent and utility gas or piped gas up 8.2 two percent so big big increases and unsurprisingly the results of this accelerating inflation are big interest rate hikes the FED is really gearing up now their next meeting is scheduled for actually right about the time that this video goes out on the 26th and 27th of July and economists are expecting at least another 0.75 rise in the federal funds rate with some even tipping a whole percentage Point rise and the unfortunate reality of the situation is that these interest rate Rises will keep happening until that inflation rate is back down to the fed's Target of two percent annually so there still could be a lot more to come but of course what these rate risers mean in reality is that economic conditions continue to get more and more difficult for Citizens and businesses so consumers have less disposable income as debt payments rise and life's Essentials get more and more expensive and for businesses this means lower profits at a time where their debt repayments and other costs are also rising and for these reasons many are predicting that a nasty recession is just around the corner for America and one person who saw all this coming is the man the myth the legend Michael Barry but despite predicting all this at the start of last year he's recently come out suggesting that in his opinion we're only halfway there it already feels like a recession a trillion in market cap negative multiplier now I've made a few Michael Barry videos lately and honestly I've already covered his thoughts on the market crash and the inflation crisis so I will just leave a link to that video up on the screen now but in this video I do want to focus on the reasoning why he thinks we're only halfway there he recently tweeted quote adjusted for inflation 2022 first half S P 500 down 25 26 and NASDAQ down 34 35 Bitcoin down 64.65 percent that was multiple compression next up earnings compression so maybe halfway there and this is a pretty insane prediction because it means Barry is thinking we're probably going to get down to an S P 500 value of roughly 2 800 but it's also pretty scary because I kind of agree with his reasoning so what is he talking about well in that tweet he brings up two factors that contribute to the price of a stock falling there's multiple compression and then there's earnings compression firstly multiple compression what Barry thinks we've seen thus far what does this mean well of course the most common and simplistic valuation metric that exists is the price to earnings ratio stock price divided by earnings per share if your company owns one dollar per share in a year and the stock price is twenty dollars you have a p e ratio of 20.
but we can also rearrange this equation to look like this stock price equals earnings multiplied by the p e Ratio or now in other words the earnings multiple what multiple of earnings are investors willing to pay for the stock now that earnings multiple is very much dependent on what investors think the company is likely to do going forward so big growth opportunities great performance ahead investors will give it a high earnings multiple whereas problems with the company competitions stealing market share you'll get a much lower multiple what it tells you is investor sentiment what investors are expecting to happen in the future now we can apply this formula to a specific stock but we can also apply it to the market as a whole a massive shout out to Roman at pensioncraft who made a great video on this topic and display played multiple compression in a really clever way really great video so I'll definitely leave that Linked In the description I definitely recommend you check it out but what Roman showed is the price of the S P 500 and the earnings on the same chart to create a joy and a Gloom scale so let's have a look this is the air quotes price of the S P 500 since 1960 and then let's have a look at the earnings over that same time period from those two lines we can determine what multiple was put on the S P 500 during those periods price over earnings and for analysis sake we're going to show it show that line compared to the Benchmark of 15.97 which is the average multiple for the S P 500 over the ultra long term sometimes investors are overly optimistic and give the market a higher multiple and then sometimes they're more pessimistic and they give it a lower than average multiple as you can see it goes through Cycles where investors are overly optimistic and then they become pessimistic also just as a side note you might be asking and why there was such optimism in late 2008 that seems a bit weird well actually that's a special case where the earnings were actually so extremely low during the Great Recession however at the time prices were being somewhat stabilized because the FED had announced a massive bailout plan so you get this weird patch at the GFC where prices actually looked elevated versus earnings but generally as you can see the market goes through patches of optimism and pessimism around the average multiple of 16.
and as you can see running into 2022 that multiple is falling way back towards the average and in fact this data stops at the start of this year and as earnings have stayed strong so far this year yet the market has continued to fall this line is continuing downward through 2022. this is what Michael Barry notes as multiple compression really it's a fancy way of saying investor confidence is deteriorating last year investors were willing to pay upwards of 35 times the earnings of the S P 500 to own it now current estimates are that multiple is fall into about 20 so optimism quickly turning to pessimism so the market is falling that's the main takeaway it's also affected as well by interest rates is when interest rates Rise new bonds look more enticing and the big money in the market starts flowing out of the stock market back into the bond market which drags down the stock market this is the opposite of what we've been seeing happen over the last few years you know interest rates have been very low and in those times the stock market usually gets artificially inflated because Bond returns are basically zero thus the big money looks to put their money elsewhere but long story short that's multiple compression investor confidence weighting and rates Rising that's the first half of Barry's tweet but as he suggested here's of the opinion that we're only halfway there and from here he thinks it's earnings compression that takes over so instead of prices being brought down by investor confidence waning it's also going to be brought down by companies in Corporate America earning less this goes back to to what we were saying before you know right now because inflation is so crushingly high interest rates are going up but in reality what that means is that consumers have less spare cash have a look at what Barry's been posting lately he posted this image showing the U.S consumer savings as a percentage of GDP what we're seeing right now is people's savings covering less and less of America's GDP at a time where the GDP is going down he tweeted quote U.S personal savings filter 2013 levels the savings rate to 2008 levels while revolving credit card debt grew at a record-setting pace back to pre-covert Peak despite all those trillions of cash dropped in their laps looming a consumer recession and more earnings trouble so what he's getting at is unfortunately all this inflation and all these interest rate hikes are leaving consumers with very little in their pocket and less spending also means less revenue for businesses couple that with higher costs and increasing costs of debts and all of a sudden you've got corporate earnings really struggling one company that we saw struggling q1 that Barry specifically made an example of was Amazon if we turn over to Simply Wall Street we can see under the future growth tab that Amazon's earnings were doing all right but they tanked in q1 consumers aren't willing to spend as much and also while I don't put very much weight on analysts expectations have a look the analysts are expecting that dip to continue through 2023 and start recovering in 2024 so you can see the macro economics in the numbers since 2021 the operating expenses have been increasing at a faster than normal rate and the cash flow from operations has reduced so very interesting charts and if you wanted to have a play on simply Wall Street then there's a link down in the description of this video if you wanted to sign up it's 100 free to use if you just wanted to try it but alternatively if you did want access to the full Suite like what I'm using in the video you can get a 30 discount when you sign up with that link and as always thank you very much to Simply Wall Street for their support but overall that is the second part of Barry's Tweet now that we're seeing significant interest rate hikes and the average consumer is struggling Barry thinks that from here we're going to start to see the earnings of corporate America falling and remember from our equation price equals earnings times multiple or investor sentiment so far earnings have stayed pretty strong but the sentiment has fallen so now Barry is expecting the macroeconomic environment to start seriously impacting earnings Bringing Down the share market even further because remember rate hikes won't stop until inflation is backed down where it needs to be and so far we're a long way from that in fact at the moment we're getting further away each month so that's what Michael Barry is anticipating over the next little while yes it's a little bit worrying but remember it's nothing to panic about you know these Cycles are normal and we as investors need to be long-term minded to see them as opportunities the other thing to remember is that not every company is affected equally you know we were just talking about the market as a whole but there are a lot of companies that don't have any debts or their business isn't generally impacted during a recession or they have pricing power so even though they are battling recession conditions their earnings can still actually rise there are these companies that may still shed some market cap with the rest of the market that might actually be really solid long-term opportunities in these conditions so while recessions suck and we as consumers definitely feel the pinch remember you as an investor can still set yourself up to beat inflation and build your wealth it's not always as Doom and Gloom as the media makes it out to be and really a lot of Fortunes are created in the deepest darkest recessions so overall guys that is it for this video and subscribe if you'd like to see more but guys that is it from me thanks very much for watching I'll see you guys in the next one
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