저자: JamieDimon · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 제이미 다이먼은 재정·통화 부양, 양적긴축(QT), 우크라이나 전쟁이 겹쳐 경제 '허리케인'이 올 수 있다고 경고하며 금융 리스크에 대비해야 한다고 말한다. [핵심 주장과 근거] 미국 경제는 당장은 괜찮아 보이지만 큰 폭풍 구름이 다가오고 있다는 입장이다. 재정 부양과 저금리로 소비가 강하고 일자리와 임금이 늘었으나, 이는 인플레이션을 키웠다. 2022년 기준 연간 인플레이션율 8.6%는 너무 높아 연준이 수요를 식혀야 한다. [양적긴축(QT)] 연준 대차대조표가 약 4조달러에서 약 9조달러로 불어났고, 이제 축소가 시작된다. 6월부터 월 최대 950억달러 규모로 국채·MBS 상환 재투자를 중단하는 방식이다. 과거 2017~2019년 소규모 QT 때도 시장 성과가 나빴고, 이번 규모는 전례가 없어 불확실성이 크다. 전통적 국채 매수 주체(중앙은행·외환당국·은행)가 매수를 줄이거나 매도로 돌아서 자금 흐름이 크게 바뀐다고 본다. [우크라이나 전쟁·원자재] 러시아의 우크라이나 침공으로 곡물·에너지 가격이 급등했다. 러시아·우크라이나는 세계 밀의 약 3분의 1, 옥수수의 약 5분의 1을 공급한다. 다이먼은 중기적으로 유가가 배럴당 150~175달러까지 갈 수 있다고 본다(현재 대비 약 50% 높음). [시장 언급] 연준의 긴축과 주식시장 하락(당해 약 20% 하락 언급)이 이미 나타났다. [조건·리스크] 고금리 대출(자동차 대출·주택담보대출) 부담이 가장 큰 위험이다. 금리가 2~4%포인트 더 오를 수 있으니 부채 상환 능력을 점검해야 한다. 소득 안정성 확보와 3~6개월치 비상금 마련을 권한다. [출연자 전망] 다이먼은 JP모건이 자본과 유동성을 보수적으로 운용하겠다고 밝혔다. 그러면서도 상황이 괜찮게 끝나기를 희망한다고 말했다. [종목·자산별 가격 예측] 영상에서 삼성전자, SK하이닉스, 엔비디아, 비트코인 등 대상 자산의 1~3개월 가격 방향에 대한 명시적 예측은 없다. 유가 중기 상승 전망과 주식시장 리스크 언급이 있을 뿐이다.
다듬은 글
look i'm an optimist you know i i said they're storm clouds they're big storm clouds they're it's a hurricane it's we right now it's kind of sunny things are doing fine you know everyone thinks that the fed can handle this that hurricane is right out there down the road coming our way that right there is jamie dimon he's not as well known as warren buffett or charlie munger or ray dalio but he is a very important figure in the u.s economy because he is the ceo of jp morgan chase america's biggest bank and he has been since 2005.
so when something happens in the economy it's fair to say that he hears about it usually you don't really hear jamie dimon making massive headlines in the news you know he pops up occasionally here and there however this time he has definitely pricked investors ears up and the reason for that as you just heard is because he's predicting an economic hurricane so in this video i want to explore why diamond a man so close to the heart of the u.s economy is predicting such a dire situation as we'll see his prediction comes down to three key factors so let's see what jamie has to say and then at the end let's talk through some practical steps as to how you can sidestep this storm there are three things that we're going through which are i hate the word unprecedented which are kind of unprecedented and you got to put this in back your mind when you haven't when you've seen things that have never happened before then you have to question your ability to predict okay one is huge growth in this country driven by fiscal and monetary stimulation that isn't a normal recovery okay and that that fiscal stimulation is still in the pocketbooks of consumers they're spending it they're spending it very strong levels for and the data is completely distorted it's stored by inflation it's stored by they went from goods back to services it's distorted by all these things but jobs are plentiful wages are going up consumers are spending the lower income folks not quite as much as before but everybody else it looks like they have two trillion dollars more savings rate dropped i don't think that's going to stop the spending of six or nine months so that's point number one that's kind of the setup you know firstly for a balloon to burst you have to blow it up and that's what jamie is talking about here over the past year or two we have seen truly massive stimulus by the federal reserve the fed's balance sheet has grown it's ballooned from four trillion dollars up to almost nine trillion dollars over the space of like two years and as we know this put a lot of money in the hands of the government and they decided to do big stimulus payments for their citizens now i'm not trying to criticize or get political on whether that was the right or wrong thing to do but what it meant is that all of a sudden you had this big spike in personal savings so people had more money to spend and spend it they did consumer spending is currently at all-time highs and as michael barry pointed out recently people's savings balances are dropping when you couple that with the low interest rates we've seen so aka consumers and businesses are able to load up on cheap debt they're able to buy houses or build new factories or open new stores etc well all of that stuff is inflationary it encourages spending it encourages the demand side and thus it encourages price rises i'm not criticizing that after all this was a tactic by the government and the federal reserve to get the us economy back into gear as soon as possible after it was locked down have a look at this in 2020 yes u.s gdp fell off a cliff but it also rebounded equally as fast thanks to the actions of the government and the fed whereas on the flip side if you look at something like 2008 it was a much more gradual recovery so not criticizing but of course with all this printing and all this spending plus a messed up global supply chain you have inflationary pressures on both sides of the equation factors increasing demand and reducing supply and of course what did we get a whole lot of inflation there you go economics works but now with an annual inflation rate of 8.6 that's simply too high so the fed has to take money out of the system to try and cool the demand side as supply catches up the fed has to meet this now with raising rates and qt and the new part of this isn't the raising rates it's the qt the qt has we've never had qe before like this therefore we've never had qt like this so you're looking at something they're gonna be writing history books on for 50 years what was qe what worked what didn't work i think a lot of parts of qe backfired i think the negative rates was probably a huge mistake for a whole bunch of different reasons i'm bored with now uh but they've got to raise rates and they might be they have to do qt they do not have a choice because there's so much liquidity in the system they have to remove some of the liquidity to stop the speculation to reduce home prices stuff like that and you've never been through qt so all the major buy if you look if you go back to 2010 and say who are all the major buyers of treasuries all that time it was central banks foreign exchange managers banks who were topping up the liquidity profiles because we had to for regulations all three it won't happen the go round banks are topped up foreign exchange matters are topped up the central bank will be selling not buying and governments have much more fiscal deficit to finance that's a huge change in the flow of funds around the world i find this take really interesting from jamie his opinion is there's so much money in the system that the fed basically has no choice but to do quantitative tightening basically the exact opposite of what the fed was doing last year you know last year they were printing money the government was giving it to people the fed kept rates low so that was easy to access for consumers and businesses and that encouraged the spending to dig america out of the economic hole that it was in now they're taking money out of the system so during the pandemic the fed purchased a lot of u.s treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities but predominantly these government bonds and now they're getting rid of them so two ways they can do that they can either sell them on the open market or the other thing they can do is simply let the bonds reach their maturity the government pays back the fed plus interest and the bond is finished then once the fed receives the money back then they basically just do a donaies off from the wolf of wall street and just delete it all thus reducing the amount of money in the system now what's interesting at this point in time is that we're just starting to see the beginning of the balance sheet reduction as vanguard notes quote the fed plans to reduce its 8.5 trillion dollar balance sheet beginning june the first so just a few weeks ago when it will no longer reinvest proceeds of up to 30 billion in maturing treasury securities and up to 17.5 billion in maturing agency mortgage-backed securities per month beginning september 1st those caps will rise to 60 billion and 35 billion respectively for a maximum potential monthly balance sheet roll-off of 95 billion so it's happening right now and will scale up over the coming months and the thing that jamie dimon is so nervous about is that qt hasn't been done at this scale before so who knows what's going to happen in the markets we don't really know what the right amount is to help get inflation back under control and we also don't know how bad the market reaction will be in fact the last time the fed tried to do just a little bit of qt from october 2017 to july 2019 the market performance was terrible so much so that the fed actually decided to stop doing the tightening altogether so it's not a great case study considering this time around the qt plants are much bigger and we've already seen the market lose 20 this year so that's diamond's second concern and the third thing is ukraine that you've not had a european land war since 1945 and the complexity of ukraine is we don't know the outcome i always make a list you know if you predict the outcome well you couldn't predict the outcome of vietnam korea afghanistan iraq 10 other conflagrations all wrong wars go bad they go south they have unintended consequences and this happens to be whirling the commodity markets of the world wheat oil gas and stuff like that which in my view will continue we're not taking the proper actions to protect europe from what's going to happen in oil in the short run and we're not taking the proper actions to protect you all whereas capital oil in the next five years which means it almost has to go up the price so third point just to add fuel to the fire we have russia's invasion of ukraine which as jaime noted is playing havoc with commodity markets around the world and causing a lot of price rises we've seen energy costs soaring western sanctions against russian energy giants have resulted in a major gap on world energy markets fuel prices rising gasoline prices hit all-time highs in march 2022.
halted shipments of grain out of russia in ukraine russia's naval blockade of ukrainian ports has bottled up 20 million tons of grain destined for global markets threatening to worsen current food shortages here's a stat nearly one-third of the world's wheat and one-fifth of the world's corn comes from russia and ukraine think about the ripple effects into food products if we lose literally 30 of the world's wheat and twenty percent of the world's corn already the conflicts in ukraine and the disruption to exports has led to food prices skyrocketing in africa and asia and the frustrating thing is that it doesn't look like it's going to end anytime soon in fact jamie diamond can see a world where oil rises to 150 to 175 dollars per barrel over the medium term roughly 50 higher than where it is today families are already feeling the pinch at the pump what if things got 50 percent worse over the next three to five years now i'm certainly no expert on these commodities but i do think it's interesting hearing the ceo of jpmorgan chase speaking with such conviction about these topics three big factors that are stacking on top of one another to cause an economic hurricane in the eyes of jamie dimon we're not dealing with these challenges so those three things fiscally induced growth qt ukraine war so i'm gonna change the storm clouds out there because i look i'm an optimist you know i i said there's storm clouds they're big storm clouds we just don't know if it's a minor one or superstorm sandy or uh yeah sandy or or uh andrew or something like that and it's you you better brace yourself so jp moore is bracing ourselves and we're going to be very conserving our balance sheet on with all this capital uncertainty we're going to have to take actions and you know i kind of want to shed non non-operating deposits again which we can do in size you know to protect ourselves so we could serve clients in bad times and so that that's the environment we're dealing with and you know i i'm i think it's okay to hope that'll end up okay i hope it that's my goldilocks i hope who the hell knows so fair to say jamie paints a pretty bleak picture of where he sees the world heading so to try and cheer things up at the end of the video just wanted to take a minute to just discuss what we can do about this situation you know how can we stop jamie's economic hurricane from wiping us out well i think the main way you can protect yourself is just to make sure that you've got your debts under control so yes things are getting more expensive groceries petrol etc but the main thing that will properly screw you over is big interest rate rises on big chunks of debt like car loans and mortgages so the number one thing you can do is make sure you've got your debts under control and assess whether you could still service your debts if rates went up literally two three four percent from here because honestly it is on the cards so keep those debts under control first thing but secondly you know also do everything you can to make sure your income is secured and not at risk of stopping over the next few years and on top of that make sure you have an emergency fund so if anything bad were to happen over the next little while you get laid off from your job or something like that happens then you'll still be able to cover your expenses for like three to six months if you can do that i think that puts you a good chunk of the way from sidestepping this storm and if you're interested in learning how to sidestep the current macro environment in terms of your stock portfolio i will leave a link to a video up on the screen right now because i literally just made a video about that last week so definitely check that out but with that said guys they are jamie diamond's thoughts on the economic hurricane headed our way let me know what you think you know do you agree with jamie and think the economy is looking pretty dire do you disagree with him and think his rationale is a little bit overblown definitely and i'll see you guys in the next video this video is brought to you by sharesight seek of tracking your performance manually track capital gains dividends and currency fluctuations easily and when it comes to tax time have everything you need ready to go with just a click of a button try sharesight for free or use the referral link in the description to get four months free when you sign up to an annual plan
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