저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 영상은 고인플레이션기에 가격 전가력(pricing power)과 낮은 자본지출 요구를 가진 기업이 유리하다는 버핏·파브라이의 투자 원칙을 소개하며, 특정 종목 예측은 없다. [핵심 주장 1: 가격 전가력] 인플레이션 시 수요 감소 없이 가격을 올릴 수 있는 경쟁우위(넓은 해자)를 가진 기업이 유리하다. 버핏의 사탕 사업 사례: 달러 가치가 약 85% 하락하는 동안 판매량은 75% 증가, 매출은 10배로 늘었다. [근거·사례] 고급 브랜드(루이비통, 페라리)는 부유층 고객이 많아 인플레이션에 덜 타격을 받는다. 반면 대중 소비 브랜드·넷플릭스 같은 구독 서비스는 가계가 지출을 줄이며 타격을 받을 수 있다. [핵심 주장 2: 낮은 자본지출 요구] 과거에 설비투자를 끝낸 기업(예: 코카콜라, 1892년 창업 후 대규모 투자 완료)은 인플레이션기에 가격을 올려 이익을 더 얻는다. 반면 지속적 대규모 투자가 필요한 기업은 어려움을 겪는다. [업종 언급] 전력 유틸리티는 채권형 수익 구조라 고인플레이션에서 채권금리 상승으로 불리하다고 언급. 채권은 일반적으로 인플레이션에 약하다. [리스크·조건] 인플레이션은 채권 투자자, 현금 보유자 등 거의 모두에게 손실을 준다. 명확한 회피 수단은 없으며 투자는 전반적으로 더 어려워질 것이다. 금리 인상으로 기업 활동이 둔화될 수 있다. [주변 맥락] 영상 시점 기준 미국 물가 상승률 8.6%(40년 만의 최고), 연준 0.75%p 금리 인상이 언급됨. 비상자금 확보, 단기 투기 지양, 장기 관점 유지를 권고. [출연자 전망] 특정 자산에 대한 가격 방향 예측은 없고, 원칙 중심의 장기 관점만 제시.
다듬은 글
we're seeing very substantial inflation it's very interesting i mean we're raising prices people are raising prices to us and it's being accepted take home building i mean you know the cost of we've got nine home builders and in addition to our manufactured housing and then operation which is the largest in the country so we really do a lot of housing the costs are just up up steel costs you know just every day they're going up as i've covered extensively on the channel across the past year we're currently seeing record levels of inflation in fact the latest inflation data came out the other week and it's yet another 40-year high this time 8.6 when inflation gets really high like this the federal reserve raises interest rates to put the brakes on the economy for example just last week the fed announced a 0.75 interest rate hike with more to come just like that a 500 000 mortgage got about 4 000 more expensive each year ouch right but inflation doesn't just hurt homeowners it also hurts businesses businesses take out loans too debt becomes more expensive and if you couple that with consumers that no longer have a lot of spare money to buy iphones and teslas and disney plus subscriptions because now they're so focused on paying down their mortgage and their credit cards all of a sudden sales drop at these businesses and stock prices fall so the question is how do we as stock market investors best protect ourselves from suffering at the hands of inflation well instead of rambling on myself let's turn to the 91 year old oracle of omaha warren edward buffett to explain how to invest in these conditions and there are really two key factors that need to be considered and they're both covered in this next clip so let's have a listen and then we'll take the time to break down each point the businesses that will perform the best are the ones that require little capital investment to facilitate inflationary growth that have strong positions that allow them to increase prices with inflation we have a candy business for example and the value of the dollar since we bought that candy business has probably fallen at least 85 percent i would say and that candy business sells 75 percent more pounds of candy than it did when we bought it but it has 10 times the revenues and it doesn't take a lot more capital so that kind of a business any business has enough freedom to price to offset inflation and doesn't require huge investment to support it will do well so point number one the business has enough power to raise prices to mitigate the effects of inflation and point number two the business doesn't require a huge amount of capital to support inflationary growth both extremely important factors so we will discuss both but let's start with point number one the idea of pricing power pricing power simply means the company has the ability to raise prices without reducing demand for their products companies that have pricing power have some form of competitive advantage an intrinsic characteristic of their business that sets them apart from their competitors apple's ecosystem facebook's network costco's low prices buffer wrote this back in 1982 just after the us had gone through a crippling spike of inflation he described two key factors to look for to reduce the effect of inflation and the first you must find companies that have quote an ability to increase prices rather easily even when product demand is flat and capacity is not fully utilized without fear of significant loss of either market share or unit volume these are businesses that have wide moats but here's the thing it can't be any old mode there are lots of companies with competitive advantages that will actually suffer during inflationary periods so it must be a competitive advantage that gives the business pricing power so usually what happens when you have inflation is usually wages don't keep up so if inflation is running ten percent maybe wages might be going up five percent or seven percent usually that's there's a lag and so purchasing power is declining and in in uh economies like india where food and energy can be a huge part of the pie uh for most uh lower middle class and and poor people then i i think even strong brands will be challenged to raise prices on the other hand if you're louis vuitton you know you're at the top end you will have a very strong ability to raise prices regardless of inflation because you know the rich are getting richer and you know they've got limited places they can spend their money etc so i think that inflation hits these different companies and products in very different ways and um it can be a very strong headwind for some businesses and it can be a much lighter headwind farther so i find that really interesting you can have a competitive advantage and still struggle so really you need to focus on pricing power you know if you're a business that say the most popular makeup brand in a poor country you know big brand mode well in an inflationary period your sales might still struggle due to unaffordability netflix is a small luxury bought by the masses and they have a competitive advantage but as consumers whittle away their savings they may look to cut their subscription spending altogether to save money whereas on the flip side a brand like louis vuitton or ferrari probably won't suffer the same effect because their customers are all at the top end of the spectrum they're the people that are rich no matter what's happening so i find that point very interesting from monish go beyond the fact that they have a wide mode and also ask who's buying these products that is the important question to find businesses that will genuinely suffer no consequences from inflation but now let's talk about the second key factor which is finding businesses that don't need huge capital investment to keep humming if you have a business where most of the capex has already happened in the past they would be deriving the benefits of that capex in the future let's say for example i own a hotel and i've already built the hotel and it's up and running and i don't plan to build another hotel etc if we had strong inflation assuming there weren't you know changes in many more hotels being built around me the odds are high that if it's in a good area that the nightly rates might go up in lockstep with inflation that's possible because you did the capex in yesterday's dollars inflation actually is not going to hurt if you have to use those dollars to build another hotel it's going to cost you a lot more to build the next hotel and so in that case it becomes difficult but if you are milking the cow so to speak on old capex that you've done in old rupees or dollars then it's an advantage we are best off in a world where there's no inflation because that makes the analysis easier but when we have an inflationary environment it is important to try to understand which businesses will do well in that environment and which businesses will struggle in that environment and it i think it relates a lot to the capital expenses the business has to do in the future so that's the second point businesses that are well shielded from the effects of inflation and can actually benefit from it are those that have already completed major capital expenditures in yesterday's dollars think about this coca-cola has been around since 1892 in its first year they sold 25 bottles of coke today they sell 1.9 billion bottles per day over time coca-cola's had to invest significantly in making more and more product to be able to keep up with demand but they did that investment and they did it in yesterday's dollars so today they don't need to invest tens of billions of new production plants to be able to you know keep up with demand and grow their market share they've done that investment already and because they have a competitive advantage that gives them pricing power as inflation runs they can raise their prices without consequences making them even more profitable which actually puts them further ahead compared to the up and coming drinks brands that are having to invest significantly in new production plants and whatnot in a time where everything is more expensive so monish's tip is to look for companies that have already done the bulk of their capital investment companies that need to invest heavily to maintain their competitive position are the ones that are going to struggle right now businesses like our utilities which get in effect a bond like return but require you know if you're going to build a generating plant that costs twice as much per kilowatt hour of capacity all you're going to get is a fixed return and yields on bonds go up perhaps dramatically to get high inflation is not going to do that well in an inflationary period just because it has certain aspects of a bond like investment and bonds generally are not going to do well in inflation so there you go let's look for companies that don't need to invest large sums on an ongoing basis to maintain their competitive position we're better off looking for those businesses that as monash says are just milking the cow and they're really the two key factors to consider when it comes to investing during inflation however i just wanted to include one last point from warren buffett which is very important to remember during these times maybe even most important and that is to remember that unfortunately there is no true silver bullet in inflationary times there is no way you can completely sidestep the issue it's an annoying time to be an investor and you need to understand that over the next few years investing will be a lot harder of course bonds can swindle the equity investor to everything and inflation i should say swindles the bond investor too it swindles the person who keeps their cash under their mattress it swindles almost everybody and if you really could have a totally stable unit of monetary use in the next hundred years it would be better for business and investors in general so i really just want to put that in there to show that these conditions are not ideal investing will get tougher because business will slow down as rates rise but that's the point so we as investors need to be prepared for that we want to have our emergency funds ready we don't want to be investing money that we might need to cover our expenses across the next few years we don't want to be speculating and chasing higher returns of yesteryear we need to stay rational keep buying solid businesses with low capital requirements with obvious pricing power when we get the opportunity and we need to stay focused on the long run but that's it guys let me know what you think you know is there something else that you'd add to this buffett investing checklist during times of inflation definitely let me know down in the comment section below of course leave a like on the video if you did enjoyed subscribe to the channel if you'd like to see more but guys that will just about just say thank you very much for watching and i'll see you guys next time this video is brought to you by sharesight sick of tracking your performance manually track capital gains dividends and currency fluctuations easily and when it comes to tax time have everything you need ready to go with just a click of a button try sharesight for free or use the referral link in the description to get four months free when you sign up to an annual plan
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