저자: EdYardeni · 외국인
요약 보기
Fed는 금리 동결이 유력하며 금리 인하에 서두르지 않는 비둘기파적 입장으로 해석. 관세는 소비자 세금 성격으로 일시적 물가충격 가능하나, 장기적으로는 글로벌 경기 둔화로 디플레이션 요인이 더 큼. 2월 중순 이후 빅세븐 약 15% 하락하며 자금이 미국 밖(독일·중국·인도)으로 이동 중이고, 미국 밸류에이션 부담이 원인. 중국의 내수 부양 시도와 유럽의 재정확대는 글로벌 금리(채권수익률)를 끌어올리는 요인.
다듬은 글
what can we expect with the from the FED largely um they're going to go steady and hold on to the rates the market is pricing in however a cut of 50 basis points all through this calendar year a view on macro what the FED is keenly putting on their radar and yeah the fact that they could actually hike the inflation Outlook and cut the GDP estimate that is something that the street is going to be very keenly looking out for but let's uh pick up that conversation forward we've got Ed yardin as well joining in on the show right now Ed hi good morning to you um what's your expectation from the fed this time a status quo nothing yes status quo nothing nothing different from everybody else I think the FED has communicated that they are in no hurry to ease I view that as a fundamentally dovish stance because the alternative would have been to say they're no hurry to do anything in which case the message would be rates could be here for a long time not going up not going down but they have been saying over and over again that they are no in no hurry to ease so they're clearly thinking about lowering interest rates and uh depending on how this uh tariff turmoil turns out uh there may be a weak enough economy uh out there that they will ease the problem is they may also get some inflation out of tariffs so they could really be boxed in and really be in no hurry to do anything for a while okay uh uh do you think considering that the Tariff impact will now be evident let's say in coming quarters any view on inflation which in a sense is The Benchmark for the FED to decide interest rates would be would be naive because you don't know whether it's electricity aluminium cans you don't know whether it is cars or scooters something will go up and something will come down yeah that's that's true and uh I think that uh we we have kind of a mixed picture here the tariffs are basically a tax on consumers I mean somebody's got to pay it and usually it's the consumer that pays it and so that but it could be just kind of a One-Shot hit for a month or two and then things could stabilize but tariffs can also depress the global economy which would be fundamentally deflationary so I'm thinking that the inflation Outlook is going to be the least of our problems the the big issue will be the impact of potential tar tariff War on uh economies around the world uh offl you know Ed it clearly seems to be evident that money has started moving out of us will it find its way back into Emerging Markets or it could go back to Europe well I think that's that's a good uh question uh I think uh we can observe that as the US Stock Market has weakened since the middle of February as The Magnificent Seven have declined by about 15% since the beginning of the year uh other stock markets have actually done well Germany China India seems to be stabilizing so I think money already has been going global uh that's left the United States and that may continue to be the case um it's as though the stock Mark stock markets are saying that uh the Tariff situation is going to be worse for the US than it's going to be for the rest of of the world but I think the markets are also saying that the US has been expensive the valuation multiples have been high and people are looking for um lower pees and they're finding it outside the United States I think the other consequence of trump 2.0 is that he's actually man Trump has actually managed to get the Chinese to try to stimulate their consumers that's something that American politicians have been trying to get the Chinese to do for a long time and that seems to be what they're doing now I don't think it's going to work but they're going to try which is nice for a change and at the same time Trump has managed to get the Europeans to do more deficit uh financing the problem is that's keeping bond yields up all around the world interesting um okay fed uh rather Ed fed is on our mind we chat again once the FED outcome uh is out later tonight good having you on the show
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