Billionaire Investor Bill Ackman Sees US Long-Term Treasury Yields Above 5%: Why The Bearish Stance?

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첫 줄 결론: 빌 애크먼은 미국 장기채 금리가 5% 이상(5.5%)까지 오를 것으로 보고 장기 미국채를 공매도(숏)하고 있다. 배경: 미국 국가신용등급 강등(피치) 이후 10년물·30년물 금리가 4% 이상으로 급등한 상황에서 애크먼의 베어리시 입장이 주목받고 있다. 애크먼의 근거 1 – 인플레이션: 장기 미국 인플레이션이 2%로 내려가지 않고 3% 수준에 머문다고 봄. 이유는 글로벌화 역전(리쇼어링)으로 생산비 상승, 국방지출 증가(지정학), 에너지 전환 비용, 노동시장 타이트(구인 1.6명/1명)로 인한 임금 상승. 애크먼의 근거 2 – 수급: 누적 부채 약 32조 달러에 더해 향후 2~3년 의무지출 등으로 재정적자 확대 → 국채 공급 증가. 동시에 연준의 대차대조표 축소(월 900억 달러 만기 미재투자)로 최대 매수자가 줄어듦. 애크먼의 근거 3 – 기타 글로벌 요인: 중국 디커플링, 일본 수익률곡선통제(YCC) 완화로 일본 투자자들이 본국 채권으로 회귀해 미국채 수요 감소. 금리 산출: 인플레이션 3% + 실질금리 0.5%p 이상 → 3.5% 이상, 여기에 수급 기반 텀프리미엄 약 2%p 가산 → 30년물 적정 5.5%. 현재 4.25% 수준이므로 금리 상승(채권가격 하락)에 베팅. 출연자 전망: 애크먼의 숏 포지션은 채권 금리 상승을 기대하는 것이며, 워런 버핏은 현금관리 차원에서 채권을 매수한다고 밝혀 두 견해가 상충하지 않는다는 해석이 제시됨. 애크먼도 트위터에서 이를 명확히 함. 리스크/조건: 방송 기준 시점 정보이며, 금리 방향은 수급·인플레이션 지표에 좌우. 마무리: 시장 마감 직전 미국 장기금리 방향성이 핵심 변수로 강조됨.

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01. okay Mark is holding on to 19 500 so let's turn our attention to the macro since the market gains are very much intact closing the heels of the U.S 10-year and the 30-year Bond deals shooting up above the four percent Mark following the downgrade of the U.S rating by which billionaire investor Bill Ackman adds fuel to the fire by saying he's shorting U.S treasuries because he thinks the yields ought to go much higher admin is widely followed by fixed income investors so why does admin expect heels to rise more Lata joins in with the details well as a hedge fund investor Blackman is actually followed by fiction fixed investment investors and it the interest is more because of the fixed downgrade and the shooting of uh yields but what Bill Ackman is pointing out to is exactly what Fitch pointed out to why does he see long-term U.S treasury yields that is 10 year and 30 or more important about five percent he sees it at five and a half percent he gives uh a few reasons one he says long-term U.S inflation will not come to two it will remain at three percent and why that's because the globalization means everyone is making in their own home it becomes a little more expensive many of the things U.S defense expenditure is shooting because of geopolitical reasons energy transition has its own costs at least initial capex and uh then he goes on to say workers because there is zero the beverage curve for every one worker there is 1.6 jobs available worker bargaining part is leading to more salaries and therefore a higher inflation that's one set of reasons the second set of reasons is the demand and supply of U.S treasuries U.S bonds he says there's 32 trillion accumulated debt plus as switch points out for the next two three years given the entitlement commitments the U.S is likely to run a higher fiscal deficit that means the supply of bonds are going to increase exactly at the time when the FED is already said it is going to reduce its balance sheet every month 90 billion dollars of bonds are not going to be brought backed by uh the FED when it redeems so the one big buyer Less in the market and more Bond Supply by the supplier that is U.S government that's the second reason third reason the usual Global factors China also is decoupling everyone's trying to make their own home so Global Production uh productivity Falls and product prices increase and the big one Japanese yield curve control is slowing I mean they are allowing yields to rise a bit that's a lot of investors who would have invested in U.S Bond points now migrating back to their own country because they are getting higher yields that also will mean one buyer less one big buyer less for U.S treasuries and uh together he calculates if it is three percent inflation long-term yields must be at least half a percent more than inflation so real rate should be three and a half plus there is a term premium you know when from the short term to the long term because uh again the demand Supply issue plus two percentage points he says the 30 year should be five and a half today it is at four quarter so he has sold those bonds expecting that yields will rise in prices will fall okay well the very interesting and Bill Ackman as other pointed out is followed by fixed and come and of course by Equity investors as well you know yesterday when this this uh the comments came through uh some tried to put what Warren Buffett said I mean you know and the court will come up on your screen he was asked by a CNBC correspondent in the US and this is what he had to say is said that there are some things people should not worry about this is one he was talking about credit worthiness of the US the point is that and Bill Ackman later clarified on Twitter he said that well actually it's no disagreement because for Buffett when he says that he would bet on BET on bonds and buy bonds right now even as Ackman is shotting it is it is cash management I mean he's got businesses running cash is coming in and this is purely a sort of cash management to that end so his views with Buffett in terms of uh the the overall kind of situation the dead situation and you know servicing a federal long periods of time does not he does not disagree uh so I think that was interesting many tried to kind of pit Ackman versus Buffett on this entire issue which perhaps it was not well you know I think we just what what two minutes away from the market closed we are yeah foreign