저자: MotilalOswal의라메시아그라왈 · 외국인
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인도 시장은 계속 상승 여력이 있다는 낙관론이 중심이다. [지오파이낸셜 관련] 지오 금융 사업은 대출 시장이 연 15% 이상 성장하는 142 lakh crore 규모 시장이라 기존 NBFC에게도 충분한 기회가 있다고 봄. 다만 소비자금융 일부 세그먼트에서는 경쟁 압력이 생길 수 있음. [인도 경제 전망] 인도 달러 명목 GDP는 지난 25년간 연 9% 성장했고, 향후 5~10년도 비슷하게 성장할 것으로 봄. 경상수지 적자가 1.4% 수준으로 안정되고 외환보유액이 6100억 달러에 이르러 루피 약세 압력은 제한적이라고 평가. [소비 전망] 프리미엄 소비가 주도해 왔으나 4~6월부터 하위 소비층 수요가 살아나는 조짐. 몬순이 정상이고 MSP 인상이 이어지면 하반기 강세가 기대되며 필수소비재 등 하위 소비 섹터 유망. [시장 전망] 현재 지수 수준에서 리레이팅 가능성. 2023년 2분기 실적(특히 PSU 은행, SBI)이 시장 예상을 상회하면 Nifty EPS가 1분기 25% 증가할 경우 추가 상승 여력이 있다고 봄. 2만 포인트 돌파 후 글로벌 역풍이나 높은 밸류에이션으로 상승 속도가 둔화될 가능성도 언급. [전력 섹터] 스마트미터링, 수력발전 등 전력 섹터가 풀가동 상태이며 설비 증설 수요가 높아 호황기. 다만 규제 수익률(ROE 11~12%)보다 상업 재생에너지 비중이 높은 기업(ROE 18~22%)이 유리하다고 봄.
다듬은 글
foreign hitting all-time highs practically every week we have with us the renowned Market Master ramdev agarwalu we have been speaking with on several sectors before going to the break I told you the other disruption in the non-bank finance Market is the coming of Geo Financial is this a big disruption can it make life difficult for nbfcs why it's a 142 lakh crore grade Market yes it is growing at 15 minimum so we're talking about 20 21 lakh crores every year ready to be given so in next five years you are talking about 142 Lakers more to be underwritten if not even more than that so I think there is enough for everybody there could be some you know if particularly small narrow segment if they want to enter say Consumer Finance or something there could be some rubber that's the exact word that I was going to say see they have already Reliance Digital uh shops where they they probably are now giving Bajaj Finance or HDFC Bank credit over there then they have this entire Reliance retail where they can still have you know small emis and they have the Reliance jio the telephone users so there's a large captive audience audiences so that can that make Consumer Finance disruptive which means if you have extra money will you put it in Bajaj Finance or will you wait because there is a big competition I I would not call it disruption but definitely this new entity is worth watching the reputation of the group is such that they don't do anything small so I would in fact one thing I would say that is that what uh how they how they handle that six and a half percent shares is it a holding company kind of a share on the like hell forever so then finally there will be a discount to the market price I thought the rule said the treasury shares I thought that's why they're the different set of shareholders so technically they have complied with that and but here I mean they can as well liquidate and create a capital for the finance company once that happens if there's that is the indication then what will happen is that the market will view it not as a holding company holding it will look it as a you know kind of a cash in hand cash equivalent types so then a discount will tend to be lower so that's one aspect of it but rest all operationally what they do what is going to be the is it going to be extremely digital you know I mean very wide respect all over the country because they have 500 different kind of lending that you can expect because so they have to when they roll out the kind of product Services which segment they want to be big I think we are still waiting yeah but you know this business in a way uh ramdev so do you think that collection also is important you have a very good uh you know database to lend yes but for collection you still have to put feet on the ground so therefore I won't say it is a very big can that be of you no digital lending which is there so far what we have seen is very distributed in the ten thousand bucks twenty thousand bucks and the collection physical collection is not that big a deal it is about the underwriting whom you give what kind of data you have so that you are sure that his intention and capability to repay is very good and that's where the all this analytics Ai and all this machine learning those things are coming into play and there I think they should be doing well but it takes time you want to Master on that kind of technique if you are doing unsecured display across the country uh so it can only grow slowly yeah grow slowly you cannot build it overnight and by that time your economy is growing the opportunity size is growing I'm coming to the economy is growing part in just a minute what is your sense about the consumption space because you're talking so much about economy until now for all the growth that we are screaming it has been a premiumization growth you can't get away from several signs of k-shaped recovery but now we're getting into elections there is an expectation that there could be income transfer schemes uh something to help rural development so how would you bet would you say that it's time to look at the lower part of the K the consumer staples or would you persist with uh premium premium consumption companies discretionary yeah so again you know discretionary companies have definitely done well all the jewelry companies and those kind of stuff but uh lately starting uh even March April uh this quarter for sure we have seen the broad basing of the consumption in the sense that some demand has started coming from bottom of the pyramid also if you look at the motorcycle demand which is very categorized one side of the car the other side is a motorcycles so for soon motorcycle numbers were not very impressive yeah but April May was very good yes it was very very good so let's see how the now the previous year and Festival you know that will be the real uh big one so if the monsoon is normal crop prices are good and MSP has been raised a lot I would think second half should be very strong even for all India that's my sense okay so the lower part of the cable definitely yeah it should come in okay now let me come to this big India story we have everyone writing uh that uh third largest economy by the end of the year maybe a seven and a half trillion you know doubling the size by 2030.
uh first of all do you think that the growth path looks that clear yeah it has been very clear in the past also just that this covet kind of disruptions come and that they that delays the march of the Indian economy because I mean lowest you say five percent four and a half five percent lowest but you know uh if I mean I always tend to compare that China when they got the demographic dividend were at 12 uh 12 to 14.
now of course that was a different world when uh you know WTO was they got included in W2 there were in such type of bad news but now we are only talking about six and a half seven do you think that can get broken and we can do better yeah so just to put the statistics on the table for last 25 years India has grown at nine percent dollar GDP growth nominal dollar nominal dollar GDP growth has been nine percent for last 25 years okay so I have no reason to believe that next 5-10 Years also doing nine percentology degree so if you do nine percent knowledgeable growth rate you double doubling eight years eight years okay now can we go from 10 to 11 or 12 that has to do with your current account deficit or Surplus where because of services boom today they are doing very well very well okay so now you see you see last week our Forex balance went up by 12 billion dollars in one week so and we are sitting comfortably at 610 billion dollars so my sense is that the rate of depreciation of Indian rupee if by chance we have a brother for next four five years and 82 then your nominal GDP growth of say 11 or 12 that becomes your dollar GDP growth rate but whether it will happen or not that because inflation differential uh is now again narrowed but uh if they go to two percent I don't think we'll be able to come to uh below four percent of five percent so again that pressure will start building up but I think the Outlook in next five years for a dollar rupee parity is pretty good so I would think we have a chance to not only do nine percent but it could be it could be nine and a half ten eleven percent types and that's why in China when when you when when your export starts booming whether it is services or merchandise and your current uh account comes in a control clearly rupee dollar your transition changes so your entire nominal GDP growth rate becomes your real GDP growth rate so that that portion that dividend that Advantage will yes that we should we should get uh in next no no you actually put your finger on it last year fy23 uh all economists were going with three percent three point three three point four percent current account deficit we have actually come in closer to 2.8 or 2.6 the last whatever is almost flat isn't it yes oh last startup was almost a surplus yeah and uh this year almost everyone is sitting at 1.4 you know a historical number is two and a half and for the current Year everybody including nikhil would be talking about 1.4 1.5 current account deficit so it's clearly come under control uh we of course can get hiccups from crude but to just come back to the you know the original topic of where the overall markets are headed we've done a lot we've covered a lot of ground this year so immediately is there a fear that yes 20 000 is like you know today tomorrow types but after that things will start slowing a bit either because of global headwinds or because we are already sitting at elevated valuations I would give a lot of credence to the current earnings season if by chance earnings uh come better than what street is expecting because a lot of results are yet to come PSU Banks can clearly surprise I mean 100 120 so those will those will like SBI the big daddy is yet to come so it is expected to be the blowout number yeah but but at serving the Aggregate and if I aggregate without X or something you know if Nifty EPS goes up by 25 in the first quarter I think we have then steam okay I'm being born I have out of time but one sector I have to push in power we never talk about these kinds of sectors but you know smart metering and then this pump uh for hydro electricity companies to make them you know kind of 24 hours you and some reforms even in collections you think this you would go to a sector like that see still the return on that particular investment is capped at 12 or something like that so the return finally unless you have a lot of merchant a lot of Renewables where Roi uh this thing on Equity could be as high as 18 20 22 percent where the significant portion of your profit so your roe has to go up from 11 12 regulated eleven twelve percent to more like eighteen twenty otherwise relating will be it will be so rather than buy Power buy AC companies yeah I mean you can you can find lot of other proxies but it is very interesting time uh because power sector is running at full full capacity and we need very immediately addition of the capacities so ah so I think it's a boom time for power companies okay okay but uh the calculations we should remember when we pick companies take your point you know I've not run out of questions but uh we will invite you on another day when the Nifty and the Z6 scale another uh the Milestone which looks like a regular Affair now well that's it on this very interesting edition of Market Masters thank you for watching foreign
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