Focus Will Be On The Commentary From The US Fed: Ed Yardeni | CNBC TV18

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Fed 금리 결정 후 시장 방향은 중립적이며, 중국 경기 부진과 인구 문제로 글로벌 경기는 과열도 침체도 아닌 상태라는 진단. 연준: 7월 26일 수요일 회의에서 25bp 인상(상단 5.25~5.5%)이 기대되며, 추가 인상 여부는 파월 발언에 달림. 파월은 모호하게 말할 가능성이 크고, 경제 회복력에도 인플레이션은 하락 중이라고 봄. 현 금리는 인플레이션을 낮추기에 충분히 높다는 평가. 인도/글로벌: 세계 경제는 침체도 호황도 아닌 중간 상태. 유럽은 작년 4분기와 올해 1분기 경미한 침체. 유가·구리는 횡보. 인도 실적은 기대에 다소 못 미칠 수 있음. 중국: 부동산 버블이 붕괴 국면이며 정책 부양으로 쉽게 해결되지 않는다는 입장. 고령화로 소비·주택 구매 감소. 중국 PPI 하락은 미국 등 글로벌 디스인플레이션에 긍정적. 출연자 전망: 금리·주식 관련 구체적 가격 목표나 방향 예측은 제시하지 않음.

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01. research he's joining us now as always to take some questions uh Ed good to have you back on the program thanks very much for your time Prashant decide will the FED be important on Wednesday with their decision and the commentary ahead uh because markets have it just gives you a sense markets perhaps have moved on uh interest rates have gone up 500 basis points but stocks are flying high the s p is about five percent away from all-time highs so what can the FED do or say in your opinion well I I guess the market is saying there's not like to be any surprises coming from the FED everybody's expecting a 25 basis point hike uh up to five and a quarter to five and a half percent for the range on the FED funds rate and then the question is whether they'll go again and everybody will be focusing on the commentary as you mentioned and the commentary they will get immediately uh after the meeting on Wednesday is from Fed chair Jerome Powell and he's likely to say that uh they might or might not move again that they may very well be at a restrictive level but he's not completely sure of it so he's going to be very ambiguous but I think the data is going to show that the despite the economy's resilience inflation's coming down and that the FED really has achieved what it wanted to get to a level that is of the fed fundry that's high enough to bring inflation down and how are you feeling about a market like India do you think the run that we've seen so far could take a bit of a pause because the earnings that we're getting are not as impressive as perhaps one would have expected especially in spaces like technology uh do you think that could be a deterrent for the market and what's the approach now I think it's important to put India in the context of the global economy and the global economy isn't in a recession but it's certainly not in a boom we know that China's economic growth is turning out to be disappointing we know that Europe didn't fall into a severe recession as a result of their energy crisis last year but nonetheless it has been in a modest recession in the fourth quarter of last year in the first quarter of this year and we've seen the commodity prices haven't really uh moved up or down we've seen that oil prices have moved sideways copper has moved sideways so I think India is kind of facing the same Global situation as all of us are facing it's uh not too hot and not too cold it's somewhere in between and maybe there's some somewhat disappointing relative to expectations that things will be better good morning uh you know I'm looking at a numura note where they mentioned that chairman Powell may not have more reason to be hawkish than what he has been in the past let's see how that goes the verdict is split down the middle we get one hike and then let's see how it goes but you know the other focal point from an India perspective is what's going on with China and that also hopes that it's going to be a stimulus package that's going to come out there which could uh you know reignite the Chinese economy what's your view on that uh because I think the Chinese government has a serious problem because they have been stimulating their economy for many years with uh ample supply of credit it's created a real estate boom and now that boom is turning into a bust and it's not going to be very easy to just uh with the policies make that problem go away it's in many ways it's a speculative bubble that is burst and on top of all that they have a horrible demographic situation uh I I have often been saying recently that China has become the world's largest nursing home uh that the demographic situation is pretty dire uh it's a very rapidly aging population and older people just uh you know don't spend as much money they certainly don't buy uh additional apartments and so I think it's going to be hard for the Chinese government to come up with a policy that stimulates the the good news is China's weakness has translated into a falling PPI over there and that in turn has an impact on the PPI in the United States and probably around the world so I think China's problems are actually turning out to be a pretty good development for the US in terms of allowing us to have disinflation falling inflation without a recession because China's got its uh domestic problems uh with a weak economy okay uh Ed we leave it there thank you so much for joining in and uh you know hope to speak with you once we have and defend decision and we hear from uh fairchia Powell later this week that's on Wednesday well uh it's time for our first quick commercial break here a list of top stocks to watch lined up next uh stay with us our research team will be with us on the other side thank you