저자: CharlieMunger-영상진행자Becky/채널진행자발언포함 · 외국인
요약 보기
찰리 멍거가 CNBC 인터뷰에서 밝힌 경기·가상자산 관련 견해를 소개하는 영상이다. 연준(Fed): 멍거는 연준의 존재를 긍정적으로 본다. 법정화폐 체제에서는 현명한 중앙은행이 필요하다고 보며, 일본은행과 비교해 연준이 훨씬 적극적이라고 평가한다. 인플레이션·경기침체: 연준이 약 4조 달러를 찍어낸 것이 고인플레이션을 유발했을 수 있다는 비판이 있지만, 멍거는 연준이 통제되지 않는 인플레이션을 막기 위해 작은 경기침체를 감수할 의지가 있어야 한다고 본다. 2020년 팬데믹 당시 연준의 대응은 필요했다고 평가하며, 지금 침체를 겪는 편이 나중에 더 심각한 침체를 겪는 것보다 낫다는 입장이다. 가상자산: 멍거는 암호화폐가 본질적 가치가 없고 대다수 거래소의 성장 방식이 피라미드 사기와 유사하다고 비판한다. 특히 유명 투자자와 기관들이 명성을 걸고 가상자산에 관여한 것을 강하게 질타하며, 사기와 망상이 결합된 상황이라고 본다. 블록체인 자체는 부정하지 않지만 투기적 과열을 경계한다. 투자 원칙: 명성 관리, 역량 범위(circle of competence) 준수, 유행하는 자산을 쫓지 말 것, 장기 관점과 합리성 유지가 핵심이라고 강조한다. [리스크·조건] 본 영상은 2022년 12월 기준 과거 인터뷰 요약으로, 현재 시장 상황과 다를 수 있다. [광고] 영상 중반에 Morning Brew 뉴스레터 협찬 광고가 포함되어 있다.
다듬은 글
This video is sponsored by Morning Brew. You can subscribe to their daily newsletter for free using the link in the description. The country didn't need a currency that suited kidnappers and the like. What do you think happened, because there are so many big names, so many people and companies that you might not expect?
but that doesn't surprise me. There are people who believe they simply have to be in on every good deal. And they don't care if it's child prostitution or Bitcoin. Well, Charlie Munger is back, and he's adding some spice. He recently gave a 20- minute interview with CNBC where he talked about inflation, excessive money printing by the Federal Reserve, a potential recession in 2023, and, you guessed it, the crypto crash.
And that's actually really exciting for us as value investors because, well, obviously, Charlie is just a legend, but it's also interesting because he's 98 years old and he does n't really interact with the media that much outside of Berkshire Hathaway shareholders' meetings or, as it used to be, Daily Journal shareholders' meetings.
So in this video, let's find out what Charlie thinks about the economy now and what he expects in the near future. And his thoughts begin with the Federal Reserve. Interestingly, while many content creators have criticized the Federal Reserve over the past year, and yes, sometimes I have too, it's interesting that Charlie doesn't quite share the same negative opinion.
I generally like the existence of the Fed. I believe that in a world of fiat currencies, we need wise central banks. And I think we had some pretty good people there who were trying to contribute to civilization. If you look at Japan today, you will see that their Central Bank makes our Central Bank look like a little mouse that is barely trying to do anything.
So, we have learned that central banks are very important. You can take them to great excesses if you need to , when you're in enough trouble. So, in general I like central bankers , and in general I hate bitcoin promoters . It's interesting how favorably Charlie feels about the central bank, isn't it?
And this is despite the fact that the Federal Reserve has printed about 4 trillion new US dollars in recent years, which may have triggered the high inflation we have seen over the past year, which is now obviously very harmful to everyone. But he goes on to explain why he is so supportive of the Fed, and this is a point that is often forgotten.
Are you worried that the Fed will trigger a recession by hitting the brakes too hard? I think the Fed is willing to allow a small recession to prevent uncontrolled inflation. That is exactly what they should do . They should be the ones who don't stand by the punch bowl at a party and get drunk. Although many say that they were the ones who put up this punch bowl.
Well, I think that's an exaggeration. Besides, we were already in a pretty difficult position when all this started. If the Fed had n't done what it did—and it was very aggressive—we would have had a huge mess that would have been much worse than what we have now. So, as Becky says, many argue that it was the Fed that put out the punch bowl, that is, printed all this extra money.
But Charlie is quick to remind us: if they hadn't done this , the economic situation would be much worse than it is now. I think so much has happened in the last few years that it's hard to remember a time when 15% of the US population lost their jobs. Lines at food banks stretched for miles. And families across the country were quickly draining their savings during the lockdown.
So while it's ridiculous for us to pick on Jerome Powell and the Fed now, Charlie takes a more lenient view of things, as their actions in 2020 were, to some extent, necessary. And if that means a recession, say, within the next 12 months, then so be it, because it's better to go through it now, when everyone has a job, than to have a severe recession in 2020, when everyone was in dire straits.
Of course, another consequence of the Fed's actions in recent years is the increasing talk that fiat money is dying and cryptocurrency will be the next big thing. And while Charlie expressed his opinion on this matter, which I will talk about later, I personally have recently been using the Morning Brew resource, the sponsor of today's video , to follow news about crypto, FTX, BlockFi, and this whole situation.
So, for those who don't know, Morning Brew is a completely free newsletter that briefly summarizes all the important news from the world of finance, business, and technology every day. It presents information in the form of an easy-to -read, often humorous 5- minute digest sent directly to your inbox.
Personally, I've been reading it for about two months now. When I first met my friend Richard, who you know from the Plain Bagel channel, he was using this service, and now I'm happy to announce that they have decided to partner with the channel and sponsor some of my content. So, Morning Brew is definitely really cool, but the best part is that it's 100% free.
So stay up to date with everything that's happening in the business world and have fun at the same time. You can subscribe via the link in the description or in the pinned comment, and a big thank you to Morning Brew for sponsoring this video. But with that in mind, let's hear Charlie's thoughts on the current cryptocurrency situation.
I look at it this way: it hurts me that in my own country I see people who were once considered very authoritative helping these things exist, promoting their use, and so on. This is very, very bad. There are people who think they have to be in on every hot deal, and they don't care if it's child prostitution or Bitcoin.
If it's popular, they want to be in that topic. I think this is complete madness. Reputation is very useful in financial life, and destroying your reputation by associating with scoundrels and their dirty schemes is a huge mistake. Do you think these companies did their due diligence, or what happened?
I think they actually have good intentions, although you see a lot of self-deception. This is part fraud and part delusion. This is a bad combination. I don't like either fraud or delusion, and delusion can be even worse than fraud. Delusion, how? No one will believe in a new thing that makes every 12-year-old a billionaire or something.
He just calls it "Munger coin", starts trading it or something. This...this ...this is madness. This is madness. Interestingly, here Charlie criticizes not only those who bought cryptocurrency, but also mainly targets large players who, say, have massively invested in crypto projects and businesses.
And here he raises a fundamental question, which he later repeats several times throughout the interview. Over the past 12 months, many investment firms have found themselves in a difficult position due to the dramatic collapse of cryptocurrencies and crypto exchanges, but in reality, this should not have happened.
I mean, from the beginning, we all knew that cryptocurrencies had no intrinsic value. Yes, they have notional value, but they have no intrinsic value. And we also know that the success of most of these crypto exchanges was remarkably similar to a pyramid scheme. Now, as a value investor standing on a base with an infinite number of attempts, it's pretty easy to just miss this.
And all the value investors I look up to did just that. But it's crazy how some, even well-known value investors, feel like they have to be involved in every single deal. They need to make money in every situation. I think this is a very dangerous mindset in investing because it also takes you outside your circle of competence.
So, in Charlie's opinion, he is more angry with those who were led by the illusion and promises of profits and did not actually stop to think about what they were actually buying. And interestingly, he thinks the reason it's gotten this far is actually because there are a lot of benefits behind the cryptocurrency technology, blockchain.
Listen. There is an argument that blockchain is different, that it is something that businesses and industries can build on. Is there a way? That's what draws people in. And by the way, it reminds me of Ben Graham. He said, "Your good ideas cause you far more problems than your bad ideas." Well, that sounds pretty strange.
Well, he meant that the thing itself is a good idea, meaning it's a good contribution to mathematics or something like that. When you have a good idea, it's much easier to take it to horrific extremes. Of course, that will always be a good idea . Nobody is going to say, " I have some [ __ ] I want to sell you." This is called blockchain.
You know, blockchain is this new good thing that appeared like magic dust. The same can be said about mortgage-backed securities. You know, it started out as a brilliant way to safely securitize mortgages, but for decades it was such a good idea that it just kept getting pushed. It was taken to terrible extremes, and eventually it brought down the entire global economy in 2008.
But of course, every time Charlie comes out and criticizes cryptocurrency, he is called just an old man who doesn't understand anything. He doesn't like technology, he doesn't understand these new businesses of the future. He's just an old-fashioned value investor. Well, I would definitely challenge that view.
And in fact, Charlie himself discussed this in this interview. I think if you look at what happened with crypto, even despite some big names, it's a situation that most people probably weren't involved in. Well, I like the speculative excess of the best venture capitalists who gave us new companies like Zoom or Stripe.
I like the new companies they are creating and I'm glad they are inventing new things. So I'm not against anything new. I'm just against anything new that is some kind of magic, illusion, or financial pyramid that drags itself along. Of course, they don't like it. These things cause enormous damage.
Such major crashes can trigger serious recessions and depressions. Charlie is not against new technologies, he simply opposes speculative ways of making money based on hype rather than on business fundamentals. This brings us back to that fundamental investing lesson he mentioned earlier. Listen to this excerpt and just turn it on every time you think about buying something just because it's popular.
People are promoting it. I wish we had a public condemnation system that was more hostile to people who advertise such things. And I would like decent people in our civilization to stay away from this . The fact is that in certain circles, they want to participate in anything that can become popular and last for a while.
I'll tell a joke about an old promoter who died and was standing at the gates of heaven when he heard a voice from below: "They found oil in hell." He changed his mind about going to heaven and started down. Saint Peter asked, "What are you doing?" He replied: " I'm going." He says: "Maybe there 's some truth to this rumor ." I don't like terrible excesses, manias, and the like .
And we have a lot of that. As long as there are liquid securities markets, you will never get rid of the crazy excesses, manias, and absurd things that are advertised, hyped up, and then they collapse. But it's all so simple if you follow my approach to life. I just never look at them . Why should I look at them?
I don't believe in magic. If someone tells you that you have some magic called Bitcoin that is better because it has something like blockchain in it. It's much easier to just put it aside and say, "This is beneath my dignity." Think about how much trouble I've avoided in my long life. I have a huge list of things that I consider beneath my dignity.
I don't want to do anything that is legal but makes money. I want to arrange my life quite well, and if something even smells bad, I try to avoid it by all means. My approach to things works. No disputes. Staying rational is a very, very good thing. That's all. You should be focused on the long term and avoid speculation.
If you stay as rational as Charlie says, getting rich is not difficult. Investing is a game of temperament, not intelligence. And I think it's important to always remember that . But anyway, guys, these are Charlie's takeaways from his latest CNBC interview. Let us know what you think in the comments section below.
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