저자: 미상 · 외국인
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버핏의 2022년 3분기 13F 분기 보고서 분석 영상이다. 버핏의 3분기 현금 비중은 약 26%로 큰 변화가 없었다. 3분기 말 현금은 1050억 달러 수준이며 보험 사업용 300억 달러 비상자금을 제외해도 투자 여력은 있다고 봤다. 주요 매수 종목은 대만 TSMC(약 40억 달러, 약 6000만 ADR 신규 매수)다. 반도체 제조 시장 점유율(약 56%)과 미중 갈등 속 TSMC의 중요성을 근거로 장기 낙관 의견을 냈다. 에너지 종목 셰브런과 옥시덴털을 추가 매수했다. 셰브런은 5분기 연속, 옥시는 3분기 연속 매수로, 옥시 지분은 20% 이상이다. 진행자는 버핏이 유가 베팅이 아니라 양질의 기업을 적정가에 사는 것으로 본다고 설명했다. 기타 매도·축소 종목은 US뱅코프, 뉴욕멜론은행, 크로거, GM, 액티비전 블리자드 등이며 스토어캐피털은 전량 매도했다. 신규 매수로 루이지애나퍼시픽, 제퍼스 파이낸셜 그룹도 있다. 진행자는 상위 10~15개 종목 외에는 토드 콤스·테드 웨슬러 매매일 가능성이 높다고 덧붙였다. 전체적으로 버핏은 단기 변동성 속에서 장기 관점의 저가 매수를 이어가고 있다는 해석이다.
다듬은 글
well here we go again everyone we've waited patiently and now we finally get an updated peek into the portfolios of the world's best investors the 13f filings are live everybody and for those that don't know what a 13 F5 I feel like we've been here before JJ rewind to last quarter well as of the time of recording we've now ticked 45 days past the end of Q3 and that means the first NF filings were out so these are regulatory filings that portfolio manages with at least 100 million in assets under management must submit to the SEC every quarter and what it does is it discloses their Equity portfolio so AKA their stock picks become public knowledge obviously this is an incredible bonus for us everyday investors because we get to see what the smart money is buying and selling so today's starting off 13 F season we're going to look at the smartest of the smart money Mr Warren Buffett the Oracle of Omaha literally the best investor the world has ever seen so let's discuss everything Warren Buffett has been buying and selling in Q3 2022 and thus what he's thinking about the markets right now okay back to present day Brandon for the rest of the video so Berkshire Hathaway where do we start well I always like to start by looking at the cash pile to get a sense of how heavily invested Buffett is at the present time so this is the chat part of Berkshire Hathaway's cash position including their short-term treasuries over time as you can see in Q2 there wasn't a lot of activity and they ended the quarter with 101 billion in cash now at the end of Q3 they've finished up with 105 billion in cash so again fairly inactive and what does that tell us about how heavily invested Buffett is right now well last quarter berkshire's portfolio was worth 300.1 billion which meant they were pretty much exactly one quarter cash and three quarters invested and now in Q3 with the slight increase of the cash pile and a slight reduction to the portfolio Berkshire is keeping just over 26 percent of cash on the sidelines although having said that do remember that also includes an Untouchable 30 billion emergency fund for their insurance business so still definitely room for big Investments if Buffett wants but it seems as though he didn't find anything crazy in Q3 so with that said let's now look inside the 13f filing of Berkshire Hathaway so this is predominantly the stock portfolio of Warren Buffett of course but do remember that Todd Co times and Ted weschler also make investments Under The Berkshire Hathaway name thus not everything in here is always buff it and when you're looking further down the list of the smaller Holdings the probability that it's actually title Todd increases substantially also remember that this is just the US portfolio it's the 13f filing is a US regulatory filing however for Buffett the vast majority of his portfolio sits in the United States anyway with that said here is everything that Berkshire Hathaway bought and sold in Q3 2022 from the top down they added to Chevron they added a lot to Occidental they reduced in Activision Blizzard they bought into Taiwan semiconductor very interesting they reduce US Bank Corp fairly significantly they trimmed Bank of New York melon trimmed Kroger added to Paramount Global reduced GM added to Celanese and IH and finally they bought into Louisiana Pacific Corp and Jeffrey's Financial Group and I will say if you're interested in looking into the valuation the past performance the future expectations and the Financial Health of any of these major buyers from buff at this quarter definitely check out my Discover collection I just released in collaboration with simply Wall Street which is linked down in the description and the pinned comment and quick reminder you can try simply Wall Street for free or if you're Keen to sign up to the premium subscription that I use you can actually get 40 off through that link down below anyway they were Berkshires buys and reductions and on top of that they also sold out of one position that being store Capital so here is the chart of all the activity for the quarter if you did want to pause here and kind of take time to absorb all of that information however with all that information out there what are the biggest takeaways from this quarter's changes that you should know about well as I say if we're talking about Buffett himself we have to hone in on the top 10 to 15 Holdings after that the changes get much less relevant and the further you go down the more likely the movement is either Ted or Todd so honing into those top 15 Holdings I think we find two main things to discuss I'll start with a big surprise and that was the big new position in Taiwan semiconductor TSM immediately up to the 10th largest position in the portfolios so in one quarter Buffett has bought about four billion dollars worth of this business or about 60 million adrs and this news incidentally caused the stock price of tsmc to rise 7.9 so the Buffett effect is definitely in full swing there but what does this buy actually mean well it means that first of all Buffett is making a large bet ON Semiconductor manufacturing and it also means he isn't afraid to invest in big businesses based in Taiwan so firstly what even is tsmc well tsmc is a dominant player in semiconductor Manufacturing in fact current estimates are that they hold around 56 percent of the global Foundry Revenue according to Trend Force they're the ones that get the big contracts with huge companies like apple and AMD Intel Qualcomm Sony and Nvidia and then they actually go and manufacture what these businesses need so what's Buffett's thesis here well my best guess is that this is a long-term bet that semiconductor manufacturing will rise over the long run and businesses will thus get more profitable and Buffett is simply taking advantage of short-term uncertainty to get in because right now there is a lot of moving and shaking as big name brands reduce their orders and semiconductor businesses slash their profit forecast which is leading to increased volatility in stock prices so I think this is Warren Buffett essentially saying Brands and products may come and go but over time semiconductors will be more and more in demand and he wants to get in on that Trend at a reasonable price thus he buys the biggest semiconductor manufacturer in tsmc it's kind of like investing not in the pizza joint but in the company that makes the pizza boxes you know over time pizza joints may come and go but people will still eat pizza and every Pizza needs a box but from there one of the question I had was why is Buffett putting money in Taiwanese businesses and the more I thought about it I think the answer is actually pretty straightforward in this case yes there may be a lot of geopolitical tension between China and Taiwan right now but I don't think in any scenario tsmc gets heavily impaired and the reason is you know with the US looking to invest heavily in homegrown ships to become the dominant worldwide player in the space all of a sudden tsmc becomes a very important partner to China for them to be able to keep up so even if things got really ugly with China and Taiwan I think either way tsmc will still Thrive they are a very important player in the electronics Industry so that is definitely the first big takeaway from Buffett's 13f and then from there the second big noticeable news is that you know Buffett continues to buy these big oil companies last quarter he added 1.4 to his Chevron position and 16 to his Occidental position and now in Q3 he continued to buy more adding 2.4 to Chevron and a massive 22.58 to its oxy position interestingly this is now the fifth quarter in a row he's added to Chevron and the third quarter in a row that he's bought oxy and in the case of oxy he now holds more than 20 of the company and this is despite shares in both companies continuing to appreciate through the quarter so Buffett is happy to buy more oil stocks and I don't think his reasoning has changed at all since we spoke about this in the last Buffett portfolio update video that I made well literally three months ago now in that video I read out two historical quotes from Warren Buffett about oil stocks and I'll read them to you again firstly he said when you buy into a huge oil production company how it works out is going to depend on the price of oil to a great extent it's not going to be a geological home runs or super mistakes or anything like that it is an investment that depends on the price of oil so yes the price of oil is the major barometer for these stocks but he also said in 2007 quote if we were in an oil stock it's because we think it offers a lot of value at this price but it does not mean we think the price of oil is going up if we thought oil was going up we could always just buy oil Futures which we actually did once so Buffett's reasoning for buying oil stocks is basically that they're good quality businesses at fair prices and he's not just making bets on oil prices and this is actually very well aligned with what he's said recently about oxy for example regarding the transcript of the q1 oxy earnings call Buffett said quote I read every word and said this is exactly what I would be doing she's running the company the right way referring to their CEO Vicki holup and in the case of both Chevron and oxy both have strong plans to increase shareholder returns through dividends and stock BuyBacks and if Buffett can get in at a fair price I think that sounds better to him than just keeping that money in cash so I honestly just think Buffett sees healthy returns in high quality businesses going forward so that's a deal that he's happy to do although as the share prices of these businesses rise it will be interesting to see at what point Buffett actually becomes no longer interested in adding more but overall guys they are made two main takeaways from The Berkshire Hathaway Q 313f definitely let me know what you think down in the comments section below and a big thanks again to Simply Wall Street for sponsoring and again check out that Discovery collection linked below if you'd like to check out some of these stocks for yourself and do some analysis but with that said guys thank you very much for watching definitely leave a like on the video if you did enjoy it subscribe to the channel if you'd like to see more 13f season's just kicking off baby so definitely stay tuned for more but with that said guys thanks for watching and I'll see you all in the next video
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