저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
TSM은 대만 침공 우려에도 펀더멘털 기준으로 검토할 만하다는 취지. 시총 약 5,400억 달러, 연초 대비 41% 상승. 애리조나 400억 달러 공장 투자, 반도체가 대만 GDP의 15%. 다만 FCF가 순이익보다 크게 낮고 ROIC 12.4%로 우려 제기. 자체 DCF 툴로 현재가 대비 기대수익률이 낮다고 분석(중간 시나리오 약 4%). 가치투자 관점에서 신중한 접근 강조.
다듬은 글
Taiwan Semiconductor. Guys, there's a lot of talk about China invading Taiwan. There's a lot of frustration about this, a lot of concern about this. This is something that's out there. The question is, is it overhyped? Is this concern being exaggerated? I don't know. But, what we're going to teach in this video is we're going to teach you that you have to factor in these concerns when looking at a company.
When you buy a company, you're buying all their future cash flows, and every investment is the present value of all the all those cash flows. And when you buy stock, you're buying a piece of a business. You're not just buying a ticker. So, this video will go over a lot of beginning stuff, entry-level investing stuff, and a little bit more complicated.
It'll end with us going over analyst estimates and making assumptions about the future to determine what price to pay using our stock analyzer tool, okay? This is all of our software back here. Now, remember what we are. We're value investors. Our goal is to find companies where there's mispricings, where the market thinks that the company is worse than it actually is.
When we can find that, we have found a situation in which it makes sense to make a long-term bet on the business. Our goal is not to get in and out of companies. Our goal is to sit there, look at companies, buy them, and if the stock falls less, as long as our thesis is the same, we want to accumulate more shares.
Now, it's easy when the market's out there throwing news at you, cuz remember, stock news follows the stock price. Look at Meta. When Meta was at $88 back in November, Zuckerberg's an idiot, they screwed up Meta. Verse, now it's 260, 270 a share, Zuckerberg's a genius. They're figuring everything out.
Come on, 7, 8 months? Everything changed 180? Guys, these are major corporations. Those things don't happen that fast. All right, let's pull up Taiwan Semiconductor, TSM. Their stock, year-to-date, up 41%. This is a $540 billion market cap business. What does that mean? If you bought all the outstanding shares at current market price, you pay 542 billion.
Now guys, look at this. Enterprise value is exactly the same. That means essentially there's no debt on the company after you factor in cash. That's what enterprise value means, all right? So, some other things about the company. Up 178% the last 5 years, up 481% the last 10 years. That's pretty big stuff.
That's pretty big stuff there. Let's go over some news for Taiwan Semiconductor. They're building a $40 billion factory in Arizona. I read something that said that the chips that are made overseas are about 30% less than ones here. So, Taiwan Semiconductor making a factory here will increase the cost of those chips.
But, that's a big investment in the US and starts to eliminate a little more concern between Taiwan and China and their relations. Another one, um semiconductor chips make up 15% of Taiwan's total GDP. Taiwan is really focused on the chip industry and that makes up 15% of their GDP. That's a big number, guys.
Our GDP is around 28 trillion, 27 trillion dollars. That's the equivalent of 4. Am I right on this one? About 4 trillion dollars in GDP made up by by chips. Putting the same percentage on ours. That's big stuff. All right. Now, a couple of bull and bear cases about Taiwan Semiconductor. Bull case, 85% of the worldwide semiconductor startup product product prototypes were enabled because of Taiwan Semiconductor.
That's big. 85% guys. Another one, excluding the memory segment, Taiwan Semiconductor controls 30% market share in the foundry semiconductor space. Foundry being they make the conductors for everybody else, the semiconductors for everybody else. Intel's building their foundries so that they can make chips for other people as well.
Now, bear case. All right here. Chips made in the US could end up costing 30% more than the ones made in Taiwan. Okay, makes sense. Guys, remember, I talk about this all the time. Things cost more to make here because we are a wealthier country, because the average person is wealthier than other countries.
And that's a good thing for us. Now, we're obviously making chips overseas is cheaper, but again, would you rather have higher wages here or make more stuff here? You can't make a lot of stuff here with high wages. Number two, Apple makes up 23% of Taiwan Semiconductor's revenues, and if Apple continues to expand in making its own chips, that will absolutely affect Taiwan Semiconductor.
Apple is now transitioning in this whole let's make our own chips. Part of the reason probably is because where else they can get growth from. So, they have to see growth in some fashion, and maybe making their own chips is a way to do that. So, these are kind of important things for Taiwan Semiconductor, and I want everybody to remember 2021 to 2022, Taiwan Semiconductor fell from 142 down to 60%.
That's 50, sorry, that's $60. That's a 58% drop in the stock price. And the reason I bring that up is when companies sound exciting, they say, "Oh, it'll never fall that much." Look at a company like Google. I remember doing videos on Google at 150 saying, "We're interested below 100." People said, "It'll never be below 100." Yeah, it hit 83, 84.
Now, it's back up again, but it took this massive bull market in the since the year started in the top seven stocks for that to happen. Okay. Just remember, patience is your guide. You're not supposed to invest in every single investment you see. We're here to go through this company and go through the high levels, low levels, the more intricate details, the more basic things to show you that when you buy a company, you're buying a piece of a business, and o, let's dig out some more on Taiwan Semiconductor.
So, their current PE is 16.7. Their 5-year PE is 28. Okay. Look at this profit margin. Much higher profit margin in the last year than they had over the last 5 years. Now, remember, the chip industry had a lot of demand recently, and that could be a big reason for it. Their gross margin is 60%. That's pretty big.
68% is Microsoft, which is a software business. What this means is for every dollar they sell, 60 cents goes to basically pay their fixed overhead and their income taxes. So, they want to increase revenue by a billion dollars, they probably have to increase their overhead by that much. So, almost 60 600 million of that would go to their bottom line before paying income taxes.
That's pretty big. Now, return on invested capital here, 12.4%. Not the greatest, but a lot of times growing businesses, well, it's not even growing, it's 74 billion in revenue. Geez oh Pete. Man oh man. Hmm, I'm kind of surprised by this 5-year return on invested capital being so low. What is this 5-year return on invested capital?
This is the return the company gets on the money that's invested in the business. A money A business can be funded through debt and through equity. So, borrowing money from people or bringing investors in, either through your own money or other investors. And the 5-year return on invested capital is the return you get on those two areas.
And big moat businesses, the market average is 9 or 10%. Companies with big moats have much higher ROICs. Microsoft's at 25%, Apple's at 38%. It's hard for companies to maintain a high return on invested capital unless they have a really good moat. That means it's harder for people to enter their business.
Okay, let's check out the eight pillars on the s- the company. So, remember, if you have our software, you can edit your pillars to be up to 12 pillars. There's like four quadrillion different variations. And as the software gets better and better, you'll get more and more variation this. But, right here, we have eight pillars, we have six check marks.
The two X's are the 5-year PE and the 5-year price of free cash flow. First thing I don't like, this five-year PE is a lot lower than the five-year price of free cash flow. I usually like it inverted. This means they're showing more profit than free cash flow. That's kind of alarming for me. I don't know why that's the case, but it could there could be a reasonable explanation.
I don't know what it would be though. Um shares outstanding is the same. Cash flow growth, net income growth in the last five years, revenue growth in the last five years, low debt, as we said before. So, there's a lot of positives here, but this is very alarming for me. Very alarming for me. So, I'm going to go check out their income statement and see what's going on here.
Let's go to annual cuz they're an international company. Okay, $14 billion average net income. The revenue growth, okay. 31 billion, 33, 34, 43, 51. Okay. Let's look at their cash flow. Annual cash flow. Oh, yeah, much different. Man, that's so surprising. So, so surprising. Almost half. And that makes sense.
That makes a lot of sense in terms of the numbers we saw, but I don't like it. I really, really don't like this. I like to base my investments off cash flow cuz at the end of the day, cash flow is harder to manipulate than earnings. Earnings has SEC rules, accounting rules, all these other things that happen.
Cash flow is harder to manipulate. Is it still possible? Absolutely. But, it is harder to manipulate the free cash flow number. So, I'm going to focus on free cash flow here. Let's see what um analysts are saying about the company. Oh, actually I'm surprised they only went out two or three years. They're expected to make a dollar per share this year.
And for a company selling for 100 bucks a share, that's not very great. And they're expected to increase to a dollar 46 in the next two years. Revenue is expected to go from 73 billion to a hundred billion dollars. So that's good growth. That's great growth, but it doesn't go out that far, which I'm kind of surprised about.
This is very interesting. So let's look at a couple pieces of news about Taiwan Semiconductor. Anything that I want to sit there and talk about? Actually really not much, except for those two stories I talked about before, the forty billion dollar factory in Arizona. Guys, that's a big investment. Forty billion dollar factory.
Wow. I mean, what's that going to lead to in terms of investing? In terms of their investment So in order for them to justify a forty billion dollar investment, what return should they make on that? I mean, I'm looking at saying they should be able to make an extra six billion dollars a year in order to justify that.
Of net operating income after tax. Six billion. So based on their bottom line of thirty forty percent, in order to make six billion, you divide by forty percent. That's fifteen billion dollars in revenue. So you expect them to justify this of increasing their revenue by fifteen billion dollars just from that investment.
I'm doing base math here of saying, "Okay, if they make an average in the bottom line of forty percent, and they need to make sixty six billion, that means six billion divided by forty percent is fifteen billion in revenue. That's what they need to make off that investment to really justify it for fifteen percent return." Because we don't want them investing at five, six, seven percent returns.
That's not going to give enough money to the debt holders and equity holders. If I'm If I own part of the company, and my cash is sitting in the business, and they say, "Hey, we're going to go invest your cash at a five or six percent return." I'D SAY, "WHOA, GIVE ME THE MONEY. I'll pay the dividend tax, and I'll go reinvest it at higher rates." That's the key there.
That's the key. If you own a piece of a business, and they have your cash, and they're only investing it at five or six percent, they're not doing a good job for you. So right here, I look at this going, "Yeah, I don't know about that. I don't know about that number. So I'm a little So there's a couple red flags for me so far.
This difference between price to free cash flow and the PE in this $40 billion I would do some research here to determine what do they expect to make up that $40 billion investment in Arizona. That's the big thing there. All right, let's check some more out here. We looked at annual assessments. So now let's just go to the stock analyzer tool.
Now guys, for the stock analyzer tool, this is the most popular part of our software. It was used 1.3 million times last year. But our software includes so many other tools that we haven't even gone over. Retirement calculator, eight pillar search, eight pillar portfolio, real estate calculator. Oh, it's here.
That's great. So this is our real estate and guess what guys, if you sign up now, you get the real estate calculator in here. But soon we're going to make it its own separate piece. So everybody who had it before will be grandfathered in. So you got to sign up now. $7 for 7 days, $1 a day at everythingmoney.com.
And the biggest part is our community of thousands of like-minded investors. It allows you to have people around you to discuss investing with cuz investing can be a lonely journey. And the hard part is finding like-minded people that can talk to you about the things. And guess what guys, when I say like-minded, our process is like-minded.
We disagree in here all the time about every investment. There are people in there who believe in crypto and I don't believe in crypto. There are people who defend Tesla. I don't defend Tesla's valuation. That's the key. It's this discussion that helps make your analysis better. So, let's do our assumptions about the future for Taiwan Semiconductor.
They have a declining ROIC. Sick. Wow. Um okay. So, revenue growth. 10-year analysis. I'm doing a 10-year analysis here. I'm going to do revenue growth of four eight and 12%. I'm going to do profit margin of 35 39 and 43. So basically I'm doing here guys, I'm looking at the last 10 years and thinking about the industry, too.
And saying, "Okay, this company's large, they have 70 billion in revenue. Can they really grow at really high at high growth rates?" These are the questions we asking. Now, free cash flow margin. Oh boy. Look at my Look at this guys, it's so much lower historically. I don't like this. I'm only going to focus on my free cash flow margin here.
So let's go 18, 20, and 22%. PE, don't really care, but I'm going to go 15, 18, and 21. And same with my price to free cash flow. Now, my desired annual return. So first off, to recap what I did here, don't make your assumptions on PE and price to free cash flow based on where it is today. That's what Meet Kevin did with with Tesla.
He's like, "Well, it's a 300 PE now, so 70 is a discount." No. Look at the company versus what the entire market does. And the historical average is 15 or 16 for the entire market. Now, should you pay a premium for some companies? Absolutely. That premium should be based on growth potential and the return on invested capital.
And as those are higher, you should pay a bigger premium. Because a company that's going to grow 20% a year, all things equal, versus another company 5% a year, you should pay more for the 20% growth, all other things equal. That's the big key there. So my desired return, I'm going to do 12, 14, and 16.
Now, the reason I started at 12 here, there's still these issues with Taiwan and China and what could happen there. What if China does invade Taiwan? I got to be a lot more patient for my investment to work out. So I'm going to put in a higher return. And I don't like the fact that these numbers are so different.
There could be a very logical reason. And this is a question for the investor relations and for our community here. Somebody I'm sure here has researched this to determine that. But that's very important. But as I went higher in my assumptions, I increased my desired return. So, I'm going to hit analyze button.
The stock is currently at 104 105. Okay. Boom. Now, I got to tell you guys I'm focusing on my free cash flow number. A low of 34, a high of 70. If all the low assumptions occur and you pay today's price, you're going to make about a negative 2.35% return. If all the middle assumptions occur and you pay today's price, about a 4% return.
If all the highest assumptions occur, you pay today's price, you still make 10%, but it's based on the highest assumptions occurring. Is that really the kind of investment you want to make? And that's what we discuss in this channel. That's why our channel is different. And that's why this software is so useful.
It shows you what your assumptions lead to in terms of today's price and if you bought at today's price, what return you'd make based on those assumptions. So, guys, again, everythingmoney.com, check it out. $1 per day for 7 days to try out our software. Trust me, it'll be the best decision you make for your financial future for $1 per day. Take care.
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