저자: Kevin · 외국인
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블랙록의 비트코인 현물 ETF 신청과 과거 승인 이력(거의 완벽)을 근거로 ETF 승인 가능성을 강조하며 BTC 강세 전망을 제시. 승인 기대가 gbtc 할인 해소 차익거래로 이어질 수 있다고 설명. 반면 거절 시 강한 약세 리스크를 언급하며 결과가 양극단(승인 시 매우 강세, 거절 시 약세)이라고 정리.
다듬은 글
some good news here recently about Bitcoin and it specifically has to do with this this hope around a Bitcoin ETF maybe actually getting approval and part of that has to do with who's filing for that approval and I will talk more about that in just a moment but I want you to see from a technical basis what that has done look at what that has done it is incredible what it has done to BTC this is very important this is the day chart for BTC you should be able to see a very clear downtrend that has been going on since April 14th something just broke though the trend broke to the upside let's extend the TA to approximately here we will sticking it in a weird place I'll leave it right there as you can see you and we'll extend this a little bit like this there you go here's your clear downtrend it's hard to call it a converging downtrend uh or or wedge pattern it's just a pretty much straight downtrend which if you want to see another downtrend you kind of had that in the queues last year right you had this perfect downtrend right here and then now we're finally in this crazy uptrend uh and the uptrend has been pretty wild and aggressive but look at what we just had at Bitcoin you had a break of trend from a technical basis that is a big deal that we finally broke above uh this 27 to 27 3-ish level fantastic because we've we've gotten rejected here quite a bit I mean you could see the rejections if I just hover the mouse here uh previous low became new resistance and you got reject reject reject reject reject multiple rejects here uh and we were trending down it was pretty obvious it's very basic technical analysis but why is this happening uh well a quick reminder before I hit that on June 30th we're raising the prices again for the courses linked down below because we'll have a large sector of new course lectures free for existing members as usual new value for stocks and psychology of money real estate investing and also for how to make more money and get sh9t done faster that's the AI productivity entrepreneurship or if you're an employee make more money it's all bundled into one right there email us if you're looking for a bundle at staff meet kevin.com so what happened well BlackRock applied for a Bitcoin ETF Bitcoin or blackrock's approvals for ETFs are really good they have filed for 575 different ETFs and they have only lost one filing that is they have not gotten approval on one and that was for a non-transparent ETF in 2014 and since then the ETF has actually approved non-transparent ETFs now to be clear since I'm a financial advisor and I run an ETF even though this video isn't personalized Financial advice most ETFs are transparent they disclose their Holdings every day at the end of the day you don't actually have to do that if you have a non-trans transparent ETF as long as that's properly disclosed anyway point is basically BlackRock always gets their ETFs approved that's why I'm giving you that background on those ETFs because the one that didn't get approved that structure ended up getting approved anyway later so basically BlackRock for the purpose of this argument has a perfect record exception again of that one exception they basically have a perfect record for getting ETFs approved unlike all of the other companies who filed for ETFs that have not gotten approved for a Bitcoin ETF which we don't have a Bitcoin ETF right now there is a Bitcoin Futures ETF but that is not a Bitcoin itself ETF the thesis is that if there is a Bitcoin ETF then fund managers will finally be able to invest in Bitcoin in a way that's not having to deal with keys right we know the whole not your keys not your crypto to some extent the same thing is true with an ETF structure except it would likely be regulated in a way where whomever is investing in that ETF does not actually have to worry about the key or worry about being hacked or whatever because presumably there would be some form of Regulation or security to make sure that ETF structure could not fail to some form of hack whether it's via insurance or security whatever right I would guess the SEC would require something like that but we'll we'll obviously see the details when it comes but the idea is that a Bitcoin ETF should open mainstream adoption for cryptocurrency and finally usher in an era of regulation for Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies that is the idea if that were to happen the expectation is there would be a lot more demand for Bitcoin and therefore well prices go up that's why we're starting to see prices go up being priced in now now what's fascinating is the SEC so far hasn't declared Bitcoin a security and ETFs are generally a structure put together for Securities although there are also uh funds that uh that trade for Commodities so it kind of makes you wonder okay would would this ETF application have to also go through the commodity and Futures Trading commission where we suspect that Bitcoin and ethereum would probably lean more towards Commodities versus Securities who knows but the point is the fact that BlackRock filed for this ETF suggests that maybe the suits running Wall Street are finally feeling comfortable that hey we're actually ready for a Bitcoin ETF and it's injecting a lot of enthusiasm now keep in mind this is going to be the 28th attempt at launching a spot Bitcoin ETF spot just means like the underlying asset rather than like a futures and uh this is about the 20th company to file you've had other companies like even Kathy Wood over at ARC file for a Bitcoin ETF and nobody's gotten it yet they've basically just been ignored by the SEC and generally it takes around a full 240 days to decide uh on on an ETF as to whether or not they'll approve it or not usually though they tend to give some form of response within the first 45 days uh they can keep kicking the can down the road and eventually just deny you but since BlackRock is doing it a lot of people are speculating this is it and maybe in 2023 we'll actually end up getting an approved Bitcoin ETF which would be a way for individuals on let's say Robin Hood or whatever to go in and say rather than just buying BTC where Robin Hood is custodying that Bitcoin for you you're able to buy an ETF you know call it bbtc BlackRock BTC just as an example I don't know what ticker it's going to be uh and now all of a sudden they're custodying it in an SEC approved manner for a transparent ETF that would hold the underlying asset this is not to be confused with like a grayscale Bitcoin Trust which is sort of a way of investing in a fund it's a closed fund where you can invest in Bitcoin through a fund but the problem with gbtc is it doesn't actually trade at net asset value it trades at a discount sometimes as much of it as a 50 discount and that's because there are liquidity problems because it's closed fund you get this this potential Arbitrage on gbtc you wouldn't have that in an ETF however it creates a potential money making opportunity if gbtc is trading at a large discount and a BlackRock ETF is approved then gbtc might get their application approved to turn their fund into an ETF if they turn their fund into an ETF we would expect gbt's valuation to get to net asset value which basically means gbtc would Skyrocket and that Arbitrage opportunity would vanish as basically people realize profit that would be a big deal and a big day for gbtc in the Bitcoin community and everyone which is very bullish for BTC so in case you're wondering a little bit of a catch up as to why all this stuff is happening there you go the BlackRock move into filing an ATF with a near perfect record you may as well call it perfect it's very bullish it's great for gbtc it's great for institutional access to BTC it's great for not potentially having to worry about you know again it depends on what regulations and security and insurance as we see but the whole not your keys not your crypto because I think a lot of people are intimidated by oh I need to you know back up my private keys on on a hardware wallet what even is that uh you know what what is cryptography and and why do I have these 16 different words that I have to remember you know here let me read you mine oh wait um yeah it takes away a lot of the uh barriers and potentially ushers in an era of positive regulation rather than to some extent the nonsense crypto has been going through lately which is somewhat hey you all should be regulated okay what are the rules we don't know okay how about these rules no uh okay can we work with you on this sure we'd love to work with you okay now we're working with you how does this sound screw you we're suing you coinbase and whatever right like that's roughly what regulation has felt like I personally think that's a failure of Congress Congress should make the rules and then the SEC can enforce them but since Congress ain't doing anything it's on lawyers at the SEC to basically put their opinions in front of a judge and then a judge to regulate and now you go and like well who is the judge that's actually going to decide what is a commodity versus uh you know a security is it going to be the Supreme Court and then you look and go do you trust the Supreme Court to figure it out you know like are they really going to be suddenly crypto experts who are going to figure this out although do they need to be do the crypto experts instead present Arguments for why something should be what and then the Supreme Court does decide it'd be a lot easier if some lobbyists wrote a law that was you know had the free market do its little manipulation to it via lobbying that's what happens and uh and then Congress actually passed a law that the SEC can actually enforce rather than all this lawsuit nonsense hey lawsuits anyway all that said BlackRock ETF bullish how bullish very bullish why are we breaking Trent because of the BlackRock ETF breaking Trend also bullish get denied on bitcoin ETF at BlackRock very bearish so that is a risk all the good I just said would get turned on its head if even BlackRock got denied and so there is that potential if there was no collusion about hey hey y'all ready for us to file that Bitcoin ETF you know we always get approved you're gonna approve us this time right and if someone at the SEC is like yeah yeah we'll approve you great if that didn't happen and BlackRock gets rejected that's bad because then it's like this is never gonna happen until the Supreme Court gets to it which will take years so as usual when it comes to finance it's either really good or really bad but if you actually want to know how to build wealth for sure like in the zero to millionaire uh real estate investing course my opinion that you can build wealth for sure I really think everybody can benefit from it check out uh you know how to make more money check out those programs before the 30th we're getting rid of the phased price increases which is going to do a large lecture set release and raise the prices at the end of this month email us at staff meet kevin.com if you'd like to bundle up and McKay we'll get back to you today pressure pressure all right uh yes somebody here writes oh God if it was denied buy crypto Market uh and then somebody else replies then buy more yeah BlackRock gets denied it's going to become a problem somebody here writes once you learn about public private key cryptography crypto becomes easy that's basic but but you just lost a lot of people at learn I I know mind-blowing right people a lot of people refuse to invest in themselves and actually learn uh is microstrategy one of the best ways to invest in BTC through a non-etf some people make that argument because they hold so much Bitcoin that you could potentially just look at their market cap compared to how much PTC they own uh there is a risk because you know it is a company with employees and Executives and CEOs and that who are going to pay themselves and could you know dilute the stock and and you know basically mismanage the company so that now you're relying on that management so so there is some some risk there uh two scenarios one approved rich not approved not rich yes yes uh it it is binary really good or really ba
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