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델타 변이 확산 속 시장은 봉쇄(lockdown) 우려에 따른 안전자산 선호 국면으로 보고, 단기적으로 기술주·EV가 상대적으로 강하고 인플레 우려는 뒤로 밀릴 것이라 주장. 영국은 1차 접종률 88%로 델타 확산이 빠르게 꺾였지만 미국은 80~90% 집단면역에 못 미쳐 위험하다고 봄. 봉쇄 토크 검색량이 2020년 3월 저점 수준까지 치솟고 회복주 진입 신호가 나오면 회복주 바구니를 고려하라고 제시. 암호화폐는 2022년 강세를 전망하나 지금은 추가 매수에 소극적.
다듬은 글
this video is brought to you by public.com meet kevin where you can get a free stock more on them later outline my complete plans for the next six months in this crazy stock market that we have because i think we could potentially face the fear of a recipe of a disaster and i'm going to explain that i'm going to talk about covet i'm going to talk about my thoughts on crypto stocks safety stocks recovery stocks when to buy when to potentially sell what to do these are just my opinions obviously this isn't financial advice and if you want more of my opinions i have amazing programs linked down below that you can get 40 off on using the new coupon code stop the see that link down below okay folks let's talk about what we know first and then we're going to get into the a little bit more speculative stuff and the reason i want to separate this is because i want to make it very clear what's fact and what's not so we're going to start with fact first and then we'll get into the opinion okay so facts last time we had coving the first coveted breakout we had an abrupt sell-off of everything we had massive fear massive uncertainty nothing was safe and something for you to really download into your investing mindset is the best time to buy stocks is when there's blood in the streets in other words when people are literally fearful so literal fear in the stock market is a good time to buy socks this is totally different from actual blood in the streets because last summer we had a bunch of riots and the stock market was soaring i literally mean uncertainty to the point where people like oh my gosh and everything's selling off like crazy in the market right the same thing actually happened right before the election there was so much uncertainty right before the election it didn't even matter who became the president when we had our election it just mattered that somebody became the president rather than having uncertainty the stock market hates uncertainty so after we had our big sell-off tech recovered for the first four to about five and a half months with pretty much straight gains from the bottom of the market through around september 4th when the market started being a little bit more shaky and we started having a tech sell-off we saw evs tack high multiple stocks specs didn't matter tech was pretty much safety for five and a half months things just went nuts these are things that happened last year we also know that recovery stocks moved closely with the course of the virus we had a plummet in march and april of last year with gains in may as the recovery set in and the pandemic seemed over people were going out again but then we had memorial day in june and all of a sudden the recovery started stalling and we started seeing recovery stocks falter and it wasn't really until the vaccine was announced on november 9th that we had a real boom in recovery stocks that lasted all the way through around the end of may to june of this year that's kind of when they all started in sync plummeting due to delta fears in fact if you look up when delta search trends started picking up they started picking up around june 1st so the market is already starting to price in delta concerns into recovery stocks that's why so many of the recovery stocks have just been bleeding down down two percent two percent two percent over and over and over again nothing abrupt just a slow bleed out the market is preparing already now we also know that during the pandemic people spent a lot of money on stuff apple computers ipads phones peloton bikes refrigerators appliances furniture etsy crap you name it kathy wood personally believes that people have enough stuff that people are stuffed out and we're going to come back to stuff because stuff is going to be a sort of a part of our our opportunities a hunt or maybe not but we'll talk more about stuff in a moment now additionally we know that right now 79.4 of adults over 65 are vaccinated so disproportionately more older folks are vaccinated that should lower the death rate for any form of covid whether it's the alpha variant or the delta variant whatever we also know that delta is about two and a half times as transmissible as the alpha variant of coven we also know that the united kingdom just had a surge of the delta variant but their cases started to subside very quickly and we want to look at why that happened and is that potentially a sign for the united states of what we could go through are we setting up too much fear now for unnecessary reasons only to have a small peak and then essentially collapse again take a look on screen right now you can see here you uh we had our our main wave over here of the covid alpha variant and of course initial wave uh you know second third wave so to speak but this was really our massive delta wave here and we can really see this decline pretty quickly in the span of a few weeks we had uh the delta variant at the end of june skyrocket through around mid-july and the last couple weeks it's been plummeting and so it's worth comparing the united states to the united kingdom a little bit and when we look at some statistics we see that in the united kingdom 88 percent of adults have received at least one vaccine 73 their their second dose but 88 having at least one dose is pretty good since the first dose does probably the most for efficacy in terms of you know being protected against getting severely ill with covet we all know at this point that you could still get sick with covid and still spread covid we understand that there's no disputing that this is not going to be a video trying to convince you to take the vaccine or not take the vaccine that's your personal choice but what this does mean is that the united kingdom is almost at 90 herd immunity which right now bloomberg is reporting that the united states in order to avoid big fallout from delta needs to be somewhere between 80 to 90 percent herd immunity the united kingdom has this and because they have this we saw a spike in delta and a very quick rapid decline in delta which is very very good they basically got away without having to go to kind of strict lockdown measures again or any kind of draconian measures to try to limit the spread because their hospitals were getting overflowed they were able to control it because they have more herd immunity unfortunately for the u.s only 70 percent of adults have one dose bloomberg says we need to be between 80 to 90 the united kingdom has that the united states does not have that and only 60 of adults excluding children because you might see the u.s population is about 50.3 vaccinated but that doesn't include children 60 of adults are fully vaccinated 70 have only had one shot okay so this explains why all of a sudden joe biden and congress folks and political leaders are all going folks get the vaccine people are freaking out because they in politics because they see the writing on the wall we're not at the herd of community levels we need to be at there's a significant population of folks in america who do not want to get vaccinated in fact if you look at gallup polls gallup polls believes that at least 20 to 25 of americans are likely to refuse vaccination and then gallup didn't give these reasons but i'm going to impute these reasons i always want to separate stat from my opinion i believe a lot of folks aren't getting the vaccine in that 20 to 25 group because either they've had covet they believe it has not been studied enough medical reasons like doctors orders there are actually some doctors who are saying do not get the vaccine for certain people this makes sense i'm not a doctor and i'm not professing to be a doctor so i'm just providing that as reason uh and then of course the the fact that you know people are still getting sick with the vaccine albeit maybe not as severely doesn't really help sell the idea of the vaccine right like vaccinated people still having to wear masks get covetaz i'd still go through the same inconveniences as potentially unvaccinated people takes away a little bit of that selling factor for that vaccine right so unfortunately that helps or i'm sorry unfortunately that hurts uh in in more people getting vaccinated which is not so good for the market okay so now we've set kind of a baseline of a background facts uh things that that we really want to understand and be on the same page about so we can kind of start planning for the future so we've gone through facts now let's go through my opinions and how this market might function this is not financial advice this is not guaranteed to happen if this is totally wrong and you lose lots of money don't sue me bro it's your fault i made it very clear so i believe there are three important factors to consider when we think about how the market might react to delta and the first is are you part of the amazing programs linked down below and did you use the 40 of coupon code okay i'm sorry i had to do it that's not one of the reasons okay the first of these is look we know that the delta curve is promising with around 88 percent herd immunity with 88 of folks having one shot this is very good however the united states is not within this 80 to 90 percent range this is going to create a problem with factor number one fear what did we talk about at the beginning of this video markets tend to react more to fear than they do to actual deaths or reality this sounds absolutely terrible but remember folks when covet first hit and we had no idea how bad this pandemic was going to be it was going to be like the plague the bubonic like what is this oh my gosh it's from china we know oh my gosh there was so much beer so much uncertainty people were going to grocery stores in hazmat suits no idea who but people were going to grocery stores and hazmat suits and there was so much fear the market reacted very poorly but when you look at the rest of the year even though coveted cases were going up even though deaths were going up and we had these extreme waves of just utter madness in hospitals with many deaths and many covet cases the stock market actually did surprisingly well for the rest of the year because the blistering fear the stock market had was gone so can we get back or would we get back to any kind of blistering fear and how does that factor in to our delta projections well first when i was thinking about making this video i was thinking should we evaluate how bad we think delta is going to actually get like how many cases do we think they're going to be like how many people are going to die and then i realized no we actually don't have to do that that is not important at all because again look at what happened last time in the pandemic the stock market cared about fear more than what actually ended up happening because when reality played out the stock market didn't really care the stock market cared more about fear and uncertainty than it did about what actually happened so fear is the number one most important ingredient and what helps accelerate fear shutdowns talk about lockdowns and shutdowns this morning we had one of the vice presidents of the federal reserve say that potentially we might be seeing school shutdowns come back okay this is very bad this is a wonderful way to start the fear gauge going up and it makes sense why some of the moves we're seeing in the stock market today are what we're seeing i'll explain and we'll talk about those in a moment but school shutdowns coming back would be very bad because it would mean less workers available to work again potentially means higher wages and inflationary pressures but uh it put in put inflation aside for right now school lockdowns are the precursor to other forms of lockdowns what if manufacturing gets locked down or shut down what if businesses get shut down again what if restaurants get shut down again and the question here isn't so much a matter of oh my gosh those things might happen it's just the fear that they might happen is probably going to be enough to start freaking out the stock market so we really want to monitor where the dialogue is going with shutdown talk not necessarily actual shutdowns yet but shut down talk because if we get lots of shutdown talk and then we hit peak shutdown talk talk then that might be an opportunity to sort of buy the dip on recovery especially if shutdowns don't actually happen now if they actually start happening we still want to pay attention to how much talk is happening about future shutdowns or extended shutdowns so the big game that you want to play and write this one down okay is monitor the media for shutdown talk an easy way to track shutdown talk is actually don't use the word shutdown because then we think of government shutdown so kind of skews the numbers a little bit search google trends for lockdown okay lock down look at the fear here look at this folks look at this insane spike in lockdown talk uh when when we had the pandemic get started between in the middle of march of 2020 okay this lockdown talk was pretty much directly correlated to the bottom of the market which is crazy like the peak of this this lockdown talk here uh is is pretty much close to march 23rd at the bottom of the market which is absolutely crazy to think about uh now go to uh look at this sort of next surge that we had which was sort of november uh this is really when cases were starting to get extreme and there were palpitations in the market but it was nowhere near as bad as this kind of lockdown talk so what we're really looking for is the current increase in this lockdown tank to exceed these levels substantially and probably get closer to like the relative strength of i would say at least 50 at least a relative strength of 50 which would mean the line would be somewhere up here so imagine another sort of triangle over here that's kind of what i'm going to be looking for as my gauge to maybe consider getting into recovery stocks while at the same time delta cases or coveted cases move up if all of a sudden delta goes away then this strategy needs to get remade right then forget about it then forget this strategy you're not going to see lockdown uh talk skyrocket anymore as long as delta keeps getting worse you know the florida stuff new york has more mandates whatever lockdown talks probably going to go up so we want to keep an eye on lockdown talk very very very important okay the next thing that we want to look at is unemployment expiring september 4th so when unemployment expires september 4th we want to see if this unemployment expiration is coupled with school lockdowns if we have school lockdowns and unemployment expiring then there will probably be immediate calls in congress for an extension of the unemployment boost an extension of the unemployment boost is going to very quickly raise debt and inflationary concerns it's going to raise debt concerns because the government is spending more money and it's going to raise inflationary concerns because not only are wages now getting forced up even more but again the government is printing more money so notice the last two things i talked about here with school shutdowns and unemployment both of them potentially leading to more inflationary pressures not now don't worry about that but coming up now folks we got to take a quick minute here just to talk about today's sponsorpublic.com where you can get one totally free stock if you go to public.com meet kevin public.com is an investing app where you can buy or sell stocks follow investors and share ideas i personally think this is really amazing because you can literally see when somebody says click buy or when they click sell it shows what their gain or loss was it's a really cool way to follow folks through a social stock app and get really transparent information so i love this you can follow people like me or graham my buddy graham you follow me at meet kevin i personally join public you can see my portfolio there if you search meet kevin portfolio does not sell your data or information like other apps i personally also think it's pretty incredibly easy to use which i really enjoy about it so for example here i threw in funds into sofi it's easy as they so far is up eight percent today great i've got about 76 in uh so fi over here and uh when i go to trade it's super easy to invest buy or sell deposit different amounts of money depend you can buy in fractional shares if you wanted to a lot of different things that you can do with public which is really awesome and again you get the opportunity to share your commentary and feedback publicly which is super fun so folks obviously in this video we're going to be talking about some stock ideas so stay tuned for those but while you listen to this video go to public.com meet kevin and get yourself a free stock now the next thing that we have to pay attention to is the potential fear that lockdowns will slow our recovery in solving the chip shortage crisis the vehicle shortage crisis or fixing and solving freight costs that have gone to the moon the reason for that is if more people are on unemployment because their kids aren't going to school and they can't work in shipping yards or freight yards and it's harder to ship things faster again guess what we get more inflationary pressures if we think lockdown talk is going to start extending to factories again guess what more inflationary pressures it's going to be messy right now at the same time if delta skyrockets we're probably going to have a hole in inflation this sounds kooky because we're literally talking about all of these things setting up for a potential inflation skyrocket again right but consider this before inflation goes up if we go into a delta curve we're very likely to see this high inflation that we have right now you know the 4.9 percent or the 5.1 or whatever we go into a delta style fears of lockdowns we're going to see crude oil prices come down we're probably going to see at least some spending decline especially if we do start restricting air travel and things like this again we could actually start seeing inflation inflect down much faster than we previously thought but if it inflects down faster than we thought there's also the risk that it ends up coming back with a vengeance after because guess what we did we took on more debt we extended unemployment payments we made the supply shortages worse and we slowed all that crap down again right so i think the biggest concern for the next few months is not a skyrocketing inflation not yet a bigger concern is what happens with fear around lockdowns and delta then after that we're going to shift right back to inflationary concerns all right hopefully you're still with me i'm going to summarize this in just a moment but now we've got to consider we've got lots of fear so far and fear is is an issue right ultimately if we get delta we'll probably see a delay in the tapering at the fed we'll see more borrowing more bond buying right all things that are going to hurt inflation in the future right now market already appears to be pricing in the fact that the fed's going to be coming to bail us out look at 10-year treasury yields they're at like 1.2 percent super super low which potentially implies that ah fed you all think you're gonna taper yank in a tape or anything yet we got to get through delta first okay market kind of reiterating so far so now what i've done is i've given us a ton of facts and data about what happened last time in numbers and statistics then i've given you some concerns about things to look for now we got to pull this all together all right so in a very very simple way the first thing we want to be concerned about is lockdown talk and then actual potential lockdowns or shutdowns or extensions of stimulus or whatever those are going to increase inflationary pressures shutting down manufacturing you know shipping yards airplanes whatever that's going to increase inflationary pressures if we only have lockdown talk and no shutdowns that's best case scenario for inflation so lots of lockdown talk is going to give us a depression in prices for recovery stocks actual lockdowns will not only give us the depression and prices and recovery stocks but also give us more inflationary fears a little bit of an issue okay now we're going to draw real conclusions here these are my conclusions and i know this is a lot to digest but conclusions number one i do not believe that tech stocks or evs are going to suffer substantially during delta in fact i personally believe that tech will be the recipient of a rotation to safety that will be accelerated by lockdown talk so phase one lockdown talk right number the next thing i also believe that the stock market will continue this rotation to safety on the presumption that delta is coming and not knowing how bad it's going to get it's the thing we have a lot of fear we don't know how bad delta is going to get so it's very possible that we get this flight to safety that just continues and continues and continues until we get more data if we start rounding the corner on delta and lockdown talk goes away and evaporates then that might be the perfect moment where it's time to pick up recovery stocks but over the next few months while we try to get all this data we try to start on packaging what's going to happen i think there's a good chance that tech and evs are going to do very well and for the time being i think inflationary fears are going to take a back seat to delta now if inflation inflects downward because of all of this again tech and ev should do well so piecing the puzzle together and we can even take a little piece of paper here to clarify this because i know there's a lot we've talked about here so let's do this let's draw a little thing right here lockdown fears lockdown or we'll put lockdown talk means inflation takes a back seat and instead we have a flight of potential safety so i'm just going to put flight to safety which is probably in my opinion tech and ev and this is at the same time as delta is going up so delta's going up lockdown talk happens inflation takes a back seat and we have a flight to safety potentially detecting ev as soon as delta starts going down then immediately lockdown talk is likely to evaporate and now we get to this place where we have to this lockdown talk goes down now we get to this place where we go okay where did we leave off did we get lockdowns did we get shutdowns did we get more inflationary pressures or do we just pick up where we left off that's possible but that is when i believe there's going to be a potential rebalancing again where maybe you want to get out of some tech and ev and as soon as this inflection point happens as soon as that turn happens maybe you hop back into some form of a uh you know barbell portfolio that people talk about and this is where you're probably going to want to set up some kind of clean portfolio now make sure to follow me on public.com and also download the public app because i probably won't be buying options i'll probably just be buying shares and then you can watch me trade on public.com go to public.com to download the app and then you can follow me on the public app i'm at meet kevin on public but anyway what i'd be looking for is some kind of diversified basket of probably 20 to 30 different recovery stocks the reason i'd want to do different recovery stocks is because remember how earlier i said we're going to have probably already had enough stuff we've got enough dishwashers and apple and things and products we're going to go back to services and so going back to in fact that might even mean when we look at tech and ev we want to specifically pay attention to potentially services rather than something like an apple maybe we're a little bit heavier into something that's more uh like a service like like a google right over apple who knows it's just an idea okay now 20 to 30 recovery style stocks i'm not going to list them all here but think some that we might put in here we might put ccl in here carnival cruise lines we might put dave and busters in here we might put norwegian cruise lines in here uh nclh no reason cruise lines holdings there we go uh we might put cheesecake factory in here we might put nordstroms in here or macy's in here although these are going to be a little bit more in that product direction again right so personally i'm probably going to prefer things like wind resorts and things that are more service-based once we get out of delta once we hit that inflection point so remember earlier in the video we talked about maybe staying away from stuff i'm going to do the same thing with tank and evs even though i know evs are a form of stuff but also when i pick my recovery basket probably pick 20 service style businesses to really throw some money into once we transition from all this peak fear just fear not actually cases but fear over oh my gosh delta lockdown talk blah blah blah blah and at this point that's when i want to switch over and get into a nice recovery basket uh it i'm not going to dump all my tech and stuff i've really already been kind of closing out a lot of my call options on tech even though i think tech can do well implied volatility has been plummeting so i'm kind of trying to close out call options as much as possible and i'm hoarding cash and i haven't really been buying unless i see a big opportunity i did buy the robin hood dip when we dip down to 34.21 i send an alert to everybody in the stocks in psychology buddy group i'm like i'm fine robin hood some people like oh my gosh how could you buy robinhood it's down 10 today i'm like exactly but anyway so these these are some of my thoughts right now in terms of where to put money now i do want to talk about crypto a little bit make it clear also none of this is financial advice right we're just playing playing the game of the market right now so what do i think about krypto well i have a long thesis on crypto especially ethereum ada and bitcoin and i think they're going to do very well in 2022 if we end up getting more stimulus packages under the guise of bailing out americans because of covet 2.0 aka delta then i think crypto could do very well crypto last year at some parts seemed to trade with tech until about november when it really traded with the 600 1400 stimulus packages and we started having inflation fears come back so in fact possibly a better thing to do is when we go over here and we start uh you know inflation takes the back seat over here maybe when inflation takes the front seat again over here this is potentially when we go uh back into crypto now recently i've already bought the dip around 29k bitcoin 29 30k bitcoin i've been sending alerts for that uh sitting here at 39 040 000 not that enthused about loading up on crypto right now so those are some thoughts about crypto as well either way after this delta madness once this whole thing is gone it's very possible we're going to taper with the federal reserve quickly and u-turn for a position where potentially rates start moving up by the end of 2022 that potentially is going to weaken tech and the euphoric rally in tech weaken high-value stocks because finally the taper is happening and finally rates are going to up going up which means we're softening future earnings at tech companies but that all happens later so let's draw that on the sheet really quick so if we go in sort of this this phase one over here let's call it phase one lockdown talk inflation takes a back seat we uh have this flight to safety tech and ev specifically services less stuff and delta goes up under fear that might be phase one phase two would be having a recovery basket over here lockdown talk goes away delta goes away tech and ev start rotating down but the recoveries do well inflation comes back to the forefront because inflation potentially comes back to the forefront depending how bad things go it's very possible that the federal reserve is going to taper quicker than expected and ultimately we see that rate increase rates go up at the end of 2022 so i'm definitely going to want to be away from like tech options and things like that but and i probably won't play recovery options because i'm probably just going to want to huddle these things but we'll see so those are uh those are some of my thoughts let me see if i wrote down any other particular notes here nope that's it okay great we did very well go to public.com meet kevin thank you very much for watching this video i appreciate you this was a lot longer than i expected it to be you're amazing you rock thank you very much and we'll see you in the next one thanks bye
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