저자: 미상 · 외국인
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결론: 진행자는 마이클 버리의 장기 경기침체 경고, 블랙록 부동산 펀드 환매 제한, 물가·소비 지표를 근거로 향후 경기침체가 길게 이어질 수 있다고 본다. 마이클 버리 트윗: 현재 고물가가 지속되고 금리 인상이 경기를 둔화시키며, 과거 불황과 달리 인플레이션 문제 때문에 경기부양이 어려워 다년간 장기 경기침체가 올 수 있다고 주장. 버리는 2008년 주택시장 붕괴를 예측해 주택시장 숏으로 돈을 번 인물로 소개됨. 블랙록 부동산 펀드: 블랙록이 여러 지역에서 주택을 대량 매입해 왔으나, 부유층 투자자들이 주택시장 건강성 우려로 자금을 빼고 있음. 비상장 사모 신탁이라 환매를 제한할 권리가 있으며, 12월 1일 환매 제한을 시작함. 블랙록은 '사업은 펀드 흐름이 아닌 성과에 기반하며 성과는 탄탄하다'고 주장. 주택시장: 고금리와 인플레이션이 겹쳐 매수 수요가 줄고, 매도자는 가격 인하를 원하지 않아 거래 교착 상태가 이어질 것으로 보나 결과는 시간이 말해준다고 함. 물가·소비 지표: PCE 월 약 0.5% 상승으로 물가 상승세는 둔화했으나 여전히 높음. 10월 소비지출은 0.8% 증가해 예상보다 강했으나, 명목 지출이라 실질 구매량은 불분명하고 신용카드 부채도 급증 중. 연준 전망: 연준은 12월 추가 인상을 시사했으나 파월은 인상 속도 조절 가능성을 언급. 물가가 여전히 높아 인상 기조는 이어질 것으로 봄. 소비 강세는 인상 명분, 물가 둔화는 완화 요인. 대응 조언: 시장 방향 대신 개인 현금 확보와 지출 축소로 경기둔화에 대비하고, 기회에 대비할 것을 권고. 종목·자산 방향: 대상 자산 중 개별 종목·지수에 대한 명시적 1~3개월 방향 예측은 없음. 미국 주택시장 관련 부정적 시각(블랙록 펀드 환매 제한 관련)만 언급.
다듬은 글
Michael Berry just tweeted that not only does he expect us to enter a recession in the near future but he expects it to be a prolonged multi-year recession second BlackRock the investment firm which has been buying up homes around the country is seeing a lot of rich people pull their money out of their real estate arm because they are worried about the health of the housing market and not just that today BlackRock announced that they're shutting down and limiting withdrawals for these investors out of the real estate fund and third we got some new data regarding inflation and spending so let me first start by talking about Michael Murray's tweet this is what he said quote what strategy will pull us out of this real recession what forces would pull us so there are none so we are really looking at an extended multi-recession who was predicting this there are none now Michael burry for those of you who don't know he was the guy that predicted the 2008 crash he shorted the housing market and made a ton of money doing it now he's been openly talking about the health of the economy he's been openly tweeting that he's worried about what's happening in the economy and openly saying that we're going to be entering a long recession and obviously he's been making different investment decisions because of that as well so his recent tweet has been stirring up a lot of controversy a lot of new sites have been covering that but the thing that you need to understand is why does he believe that we're going to be entering a recession well because we have high inflation still this High inflation is going to continue to cause more problems in the economy raising interest rates is going to slow down the economy and we can't stimulate our economy like we did in previous recessions because we already have an inflation problem so because of those things he says that we're going to face a prolonged multi-year recession that many people are not aware of and many people are not going to be prepared for second on the real estate market BlackRock is in the business of investing money and over the last couple years especially they bought up a lot of real estate around the United States there were some neighborhoods I read a statistic that said that BlackRock was purchasing one of the four homes for sale in some neighborhoods and the way that they were able to raise money to do this was one they leveraged up their portfolio because they have a big stock portfolio investing in a whole bunch of businesses and they were able to raise a whole bunch of debt based off of the value of the stock portfolio and then they raised billions of dollars from rich people investors well now you have the interest rates Rising more and more people are worried about the housing market and just recently A lot of these rich people who invested into this black rock arm which was investing in homes and real estate across the country it's not just uh single family homes there's a bunch of different types of real estate well now these rich people are pulling their cash out it's not a publicly traded real estate trust it's a private trust and so it's a little bit different than if you just sold your stocks but because it's private it gives BlackRock the right to freeze withdrawals and limit withdrawals and today on Thursday December 1st BlackRock finally has initiated this limiting of withdrawals so people who have invested millions of dollars if not more are now hitting the freezer because now BlackRock is saying well we're not going to allow you to continue withdrawing your money and of course this has made a lot of people angry and this has been hitting the headlines really everywhere now because it's just happened a few hours ago and the question is now what is this going to mean going forward what is this going to mean in January are they going to continue with withdrawals then and what BlackRock is saying that they need to limit the withdrawals to maintain the stability of their fund what it says is quote our business is built on performance not fund flows and performance is Rock Solid so according to Blackrock they're saying that the performance of their fund is great and so they don't need to worry about people pulling their money out because if people pull their money out it's just going to hurt the health of the fund and so it's for the health of the investors that they're not letting investors pull their money out so a lot of controversy there because people are worried about the health of the housing market it gets people concerned about what might be coming next what did the rich people know that regular people don't what are they looking at and why are they so worried about the housing market that's what people are worried about now we all know if you've been subscribed to my channel you know that the concerns are well the rising interest rates and inflation and the slowing economy all happening at the same time it makes buying a home more expensive less and less people want to pay all this money for a home because not only are you paying an inflated price but you're also paying extremely high interest rates which makes buying a home more expensive while interest rates continue to rise so you have sellers that I don't want to cut the prices of their homes and buyers who don't want to pay the inflated prices so who's going to give first and this is going to be a question where time will tell now we are covering all of this Market briefs which is my free financial newsletter if you haven't joined Market briefs yet it's a completely free resource that keeps you up to date on what's happening in the financial markets in the real estate market in the stock market in crypto in the global economy and our own economy into a fun witty and easy to read email if you have enjoyed Market briefs yet it's easy to read and it's completely free so I'll put the link to how you can join Market briefs down in the description below if you haven't joined already this brings me to the topic of our latest inflation data and spending data because what we saw today was some good news in inflation what it says is that inflation decelerated inflation is still Rising but not as fast as it was before and we saw a monthly increase of about 0.5 percent in the pce personal consumption expenditures data and what that tells us is just kind of the rate at which inflation is growing and it also tells us we got some data about spending and how fast people are spending and the good news according to economists because the good news it really just depends on who you're asking is people are still spending and they're spending more money than what economists expected so over the month of October it said that spending grew more than what was expected expending Rose 0.8 percent and that's good news for the economy because that means people are buying more things or they're still spending dollars now the question is are they actually buying more things or are they just paying more money to buy the things that they're already getting and that's where you kind of see a little bit of controversy where the spending data doesn't always show us how much stuff people are buying it just shows us how many dollars they're spending and we all know that the prices of things are significantly more expensive now than they were 12 months ago so people have to pay more money to buy those things and secondly it's how are they spending their money because you can kind of look at a chart and see okay spending is up good but credit card debt is also skyrocketing so how are people spending this money is this money that they're making from the job or is this money that they're spending from their credit card and this is one of those things where people are not going to know the actual data until it's too late so this is where you know understanding what the data is but then take it with a grain of salt because this is what the Federal Reserve Bank is going to be looking at they're looking at inflation they're looking at interest rates they're looking at jobs and then they're going to make a decision on what they want to do with interest rates and right now the Federal Reserve Bank says that they're going to increase rates again in December but just yesterday Jerome Powell said that they might start moderating how fast and how aggressively they're going to be raising interest rates now we still have a big inflation problem the inflation problem hasn't gone away so the FED can't just leave inflation alone and expect it to go away so that's one thing you have to understand and even if they raise interest rates by 50 basis points meaning 0.5 percent that's still raising interest rates and they're still going to make borrowing money more expensive that's going to make you know the economy slow down so things that you have to pay attention to will know what the FED is going to do in a couple weeks I'll be covering that here and then Market briefs but they're going to be looking at this inflation data they're going to be looking at the spending data and that's going to help influence their decisions because the FED doesn't want people to keep spending so much because they're trying to slow down demand and if this still sees spending very high that's more fuel for them to continue raising interest rates aggressively however inflation falling is less fuel for the Federal Reserve Bank to continue raising interest rates aggressively so they can look at all these factors together when they come to a decision but the key here really isn't to worry so much about the economy but rather worry more about yourself because you can't control what regular people do but you can control what you do and if you want to be able to survive and thrive through an economic slowdown the key here is you got to have some cash put aside want to protect you and second to take advantage of opportunities that might come your way so this is where you want to control your spending now because I've seen this with a lot of people that I know that are commission based people or people who have big incentives bonus based commission structures people made a lot of money over the last couple of years and they inflated their Lifestyles for the last couple of years based off of the money that they made well if the income goes down but you have all those payments to make somebody's going to be left with a lot of expenses and not enough income and this is where you want to do some damage control right now if you were in that position where you have a lot of expenses and income that's kind of shaky see what you can do to lower some of those expenses that we can create a buffer that way you can protect yourself no matter what's going on of course we keep you updated on Market briefs if you haven't joined Market briefs yet make sure you do so and today is December 1st and I'll see you all tomorrow thanks for watching and as always keep hustling
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