저자: MinorityMindset진행자 · 외국인
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결론: 모기지 금리가 40년 만의 속도로 하락해 주택시장이 흔들리지만, 금리 인상 기조와 경기침체 우려는 계속된다는 내용이다. 주택시장: 연준의 금리 인상에도 모기지 금리가 빠르게 떨어지고 있으며, CNBC는 '금리 급락이 수요 회복에는 거의 도움이 안 된다'고 보도했다. 진행자는 헤드라인보다 원데이터를 읽어야 한다고 강조했다. 유통/소비: 메이시스는 고소득층 소비 증가로 이익이 예상보다 좋다고 발표했고, 월마트도 연소득 10만 달러 이상 고객이 몰린다고 밝혔다. 반면 콜스는 중산층이 지출 여력을 잃어 어려움을 겪는다고 했다. 고소득층 소비는 유지되지만 소비처가 고급 백화점에서 대형 할인점으로 이동하는 양상이다. 경기침체: JP모건 CEO 제이미 다이먼은 2023년 하반기 경기침체를 예상하며 '카테고리 1 허리케인' 수준의 경미한 침체라고 말했다. 인플레이션이 하락 추세라는 것이 근거다. 연준 전망: 연준은 금리 인하가 아닌 추가 인상을 계속할 것으로 보이며, 12월 금리 인상과 2023년 추가 인상이 예상된다. 인상 폭은 12월 이후 물가지표에 달려 있다. 연준 관계자는 아직 인플레이션을 충분히 잡지 못했다고 말했다. 현재 물가상승률 7.7%는 여전히 매우 높은 수준이다. 금리 영향: 금리 인상은 시차를 두고 경제에 반영되며, 스타트업 자금조달 악화와 폐업 증가, 모기지·자동차 할부·변동금리 부채·기업부채·정부부채 이자 부담 상승을 낳는다. 진행자는 영상 말미에 모기지 금리 하락 원인에 대한 심층 분석 영상을 다음 날 올리겠다고 예고했다.
다듬은 글
mortgage rates are falling at the fastest rate in four decades which is creating a shake-up in the housing market then this morning we had Macy's release their earnings report and what they said is that they expect bigger profits because more rich people are shopping at Macy's and then yeah Jamie dimon who is the CEO of JPMorgan Chase Bank come out and say that he thinks that we're going to enter a recession in the second half of 2023 but he says it's gonna be a mild recession what he's saying is he's predicting it to be a category one hurricane so let's Jump Right In starting with the mortgage story today is Thursday November 17th so mortgage rates are dropping even though the Federal Reserve Bank has been raising interest rates which is creating a shake-up in the housing market and this is one of the reasons why I always say it is so important to actually read the raw data and not just get an opinion based off of headlines because after the report came out the mortgage rates have been falling here's what CNBC put in their headline the headline is sharp drop in mortgage rates does little to boost demand then Yahoo finance are around the same time this is like within an hour but another article which is titled home buyers race to capture recent drop and mortgage rates so what are mortgage rates doing to the housing market well we can make predictions because typically when you lower mortgage rates uh more people will want to buy homes but we're not going to know until the data actually comes out which is why you don't want to just make your decisions or opinions based off of headlines headlines mean nothing the data is where the actual analysis is so make sure you actually read the raw data or join something like Market briefs so that's what's going on with mortgage rates if you want to know why mortgage rates are falling when interest sets are going up let me know in the comments if people want to get that in-depth analysis I'll make a video and release it tomorrow morning Friday so if that's something you're interested in just let me know second has to do with Macy's and the reason why I wanted to cover Macy's is because not just because of what Macy said but because of what it kind of implies on the broader Market so Macy's released the earnings earlier today on Thursday and they said that they are seeing a better than expected profit because their luxury sales have been doing very well because higher income earners are going to Macy's and they're shopping for social events after the pandemic and they're splurging at Macy's but at the same time Kohl's came out and they also gave their earnings report and what they said was a little bit different Coles who caters more towards middle class Americans says that they are struggling because middle class Americans don't have money to continue shopping and this comes at an interesting time because if you remember earlier this week I talked about Walmart Walmart says the reason why the profits are beating expectations is because they have more and more rich people shopping at Walmart Macy's very similar story they're seeing better than expected profits because more and more rich people are shopping at Macy's so you're seeing people with higher incomes continue to spend but they're changing where they spent Walmart said that they're seeing a huge influx of people making over a hundred thousand dollars a year shop there and it seems like you have people who maybe would have gone to one of the higher end stores I don't know Bloomingdale's maybe or Nordstrom or whatever those higher end stores are instead of going there now they're shopping at Macy's so it gives you some interesting insight as to what's kind of happening with the shopping and spending because people are struggling but they're shopping in different ways and they're changing their shopping patterns which is affecting companies in different ways and this brings me now to the third story which is the Jamie Diamond JP Morgan prediction on the 2023 recession so earlier this year in 2022 Jamie Diamond came out and he talked about how he expects a hurricane in 2023 without much context and what he said then was we don't know how bad this economic hurricane is going to be we don't know if it's going to be a category 5 storm or a category one storm well today on Thursday November 17th he did clarify he says that he expects it to be a category one economic hurricane because the reason why he's saying this category one not something more severe is because according to him inflation is trending downwards and because inflation is trending downwards the FED is winning the fight on inflation and so it is going to get better but or it's going to get worse but not as worse as what many people are predicting according to Jamie Diamond now what does this mean for you well the Federal Reserve Bank is still planning on raising interest rates the Federal Reserve Bank yesterday actually they had some people gave a statement on CNBC who said Don't expect us to start cutting rates don't expect us to stop raising rates we're going to continue raising rates so you can expect more interest rate hikes you can expect an interest rate hike in December and they can expect more interest rate hikes in 2023 the question is how many and how aggressive are they going to be and that's going to depend on what's going to happen with the economy and that's going to depend on inflation if our next month's Decemberists inflation numbers continue to come in lower than expected they continue to improve then that's going to be more fuel for the Federal Reserve Bank not to raise interest rates as aggressively but if we get a surprise bump in inflation then they can go the other way and when the Federal Reserve uh spokesperson went on to CNBC what they said was we haven't made a significant enough impact on inflation yet which is a good thing to say because many people have been celebrating the 7.7 inflation that we have right now but 7.7 inflation is still extremely high and so this is where you want to understand that higher interest rates are still coming and the higher interest rates will have an absorption time for it to actually be absorbed in the economy because it takes time for our economy to get absorbed with these higher interest rates which will affect companies it will make operating businesses more expensive it will cause more startups to shut down that is a fact when you raise interest rates startups have a tougher time raising money and if a startup cannot raise more money they will be forced to either get acquired or get shut down so you can expect more businesses more startups to shut down as you raise interest rates eventually it will make borrowing money like mortgages even more expensive your car payment more expensive and variable interest rate debt for consumers more expensive along with business debt and your government debt so that's what's going on today on Thursday November 17th hope you enjoyed more videos like this and as always keep hustling
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